Blog Smith is inspired by the myth of Hephaestus in the creation of blacksmith-like, forged materials: ideas. This blog analyzes topics that interest me: IT, politics, technology, history, education, music, and the history of religions.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Basra Analysis
The current move on Basra was inevitable. The Iraqi government, if it is to govern at all, must at some point demonstrate that it is viable, or it should be replaced. The Mahdi militia is either stronger than the Iraqi military and police elements, or it is not. The Basra fight should show us either way. Secondly, if the situation does not go well militarily, the Coalition is available to bail out the Iraqi government military. The Mahdi militia has been moot during the period of the voluntary cease fire. Thirdly, if military analysts have been savvy up to this point, it could be up to the U.S. military to wipe out the more adept members of the Mahdi militia. If they have been really clever, then Basra is a ploy to draw out, and eliminate, the rogue Mahdi elements.
With these three elements in mind, and in any case, the Basra case will be revealing.
