Text of: Did You Know? Shift Happens

Text of Did You Know? 2.0

Did you know?
In the next 8 seconds . . .
34 babies will be born.
[graphic indicating India – 5, China – 4, U.S. – 1]
What will the world be like . . .
. . . for them?
Name this country . . .
· Richest in the world
· Largest military
· Center of world business and finance
· Strongest education system
· Currency the world standard of value
· Highest standard of living
Great Britain. In 1900.
2006 college graduates
[graphic indicating U.S. – 1.3 million, India 3.1 million, China – 3.3. million]
How many 2006 college graduates in India speak English?
[graphic indicating 100%]
In 10 years it is predicted that the number on English speaking country in the world will be . . .
China.
Who would have predicted this 60 years ago? (then 60 is replaced with 40, then 20]
Did you know?
According to the U.S. Department of Labor
1 in 4 workers has been with their current employer less than one year.
1 in 2 workers has been with their current employer less than five years.
The U.S. Department of Labor estimates that today’s learners will have . . .
10 to 14 jobs . . .
by their 38th birthday
Many of today’s college majors didn’t exist 10 years ago
New media
Organic agriculture
e-business
Nanotechnology
Homeland security
What will they study 10 years from now?
Today’s 21-year-olds have:
Watched 20,000 hours of TV
Played 10,000 hours of video games
Talked 10,000 hours on the phone
And they’ve sent/received 250,000 emails or instant messages
More than 50% of U.S. 21-year-olds have created content on the web
More than 70% of U.S. 4-year-olds have used a computer
Years it took to reach a market audience of 50 million
[graphic indicating Radio – 38 years, TV – 13 years, Internet – 4 years]
Number of Internet devices in 1984: 1,000
1992 – 1,000,000
2006 – 600,000,000
Did you know?
We are living in exponential times
The first commercial text message was sent in December 1992
The number of text messages sent and received today . . .
exceeds the population of the planet
The Internet started being widely used by the general public in early 1995
1 out of 8 couples married in the U.S. in 2005 . . .
met online
Revenue for eBay in 2006: $1.7 billion
eBay was founded in 1996
There were more than 2.7 billion searches performed on Google . . .
. . . this month
To whom were those questions directed B.G.?
(Before Google)
MySpace Visitors
[graphic from 0 in 2003 to almost 60,000,000 in 2006]
More than 230,000 new users signed up for MySpace . . .
today
If MySpace were a country . . .
it would be the 8th largest in the world
YouTube visitors since September 2005
[graphic from 0 in 2005 to well over 100,000,000 today]
Did you know?
There are more than 540,000 words in the English language . . .
about five times as many as during Shakespeare’s time
[graphic with the words: widget, web-surfer, blog, dot-commer, e-learner, Internet]
More than 3,000 books were published . . .
. . . today
The amount of technical information is doubling every two years
By 2010, it’s predicted to double . . .
every 72 hours
Third generation fiber optics has recently been tested that push 10 trillion bits per second down a fiber
That is 1,900 CDs or 150 million simultaneous phone calls every second
It’s currently tripling every six months
The fiber is already there, they’re just improving the switches on the end . . .
which means the marginal cost of these improvements is effectively . . .
zero
Nearly 2 billion children live in developing countries
One in three never completes fifth grade
In 2005 the One Laptop per Child Project (OLPC) set out to provide laptops to these children
The first shipments should be in mid-2007
Kids who have never held a textbook will now hold the world
And be connected . . .
to you
Predictions are that by the time
children born in 2007 are 6 years old,
a supercomputer’s computation capabilities
will exceed
that of the human brain
And while predictions further out than 15 years are hard to do . . .
[graphic indicating 2049]
a $1,000 computer
will exceed the computing capabilities
of the human race
what does this all mean?
[graphic indicating: shift happens]
We are currently preparing students for jobs and technologies that don’t yet exist . . . in order to solve problems we don’t even know are problems yet.
“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” – Albert Einstein
Did you know . . .
There are students in China, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, and the USA who
[graphic switches from: remember, understand, apply, analyze, evaluate, create, communicate, collaborate]
on projects
every day
Ask Your Kids: Are you doing this in school?
Ask Your Principal: How are you helping my child become literate in the 21st century?
Ask Your School Board: Are you providing the resources and training necessary to prepare students to be successful in 21st century society?
Ask Your Elected Representatives: Now that you know all this, what changes should be made to current education legislation?
What’s your vision?
Did you know . . .
The original version of this presentation was created for a Colorado (USA) high school staff of 150 in August of 2006
to start a conversation about what our students need to be successful in the 21st century
By June 2007 it had started more than 5 million conversations around the world
And now that you know, we want you to join the conversation
Visit shifthappens.wikispaces.com
Did you know?
Developed by Karl Fisch
thefischbowl.blogspot.com
with assistance from Scott McLeod
dangerouslyirrelevant.org
Designed by XPLANE
xplane.com
shifthappens.wikispaces.com
[graphic with Creative Commons copyright notice]

http://thefischbowl.blogspot.com/2007/09/did-you-know-20-additional-quotes-and.html

Online Politics: Are They Really Adding Anything New?

I am not sure if Clinton and Obama are really influencing politics online as some pundits have stated.

For example, the Web sites of Senators Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) ran neck-and-neck in August in the battle among presidential candidates for page views, according to The Nielsen Co.

Yet, Clinton continues to dominate the race for most mentions in online blogs which may indicate that Obama does not have the same degree of significance, and he consistently has trailed Hilary in the polls.

According to the TechPresident.com blog, which is tracking the Web 2.0 efforts of the 2008 presidential candidates, Obama leads all of the candidates in Facebook and MySpace supporters.

Although online efforts have changed, adding blogs for example since the last time around, unless online efforts reflect the polls more closely or an additional factor of significance is associated with online efforts, I am only seeing the current efforts as an additional space for candidates.

Schopenhauer Quote

Graphic source: Raffiniert.

“All truth passes through three stages.
“First, it is ridiculed.
“Second, it is violently opposed.
“Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”
--Schopenhauer

Violent Deaths Down Again in Iraq

Graphic source: BBC.

Militarily, the surge works, as evidence, the number of violent deaths in Iraq fell again this week.

This is by no means any long-term solution but the problems are not only with the U.S. military.

An extra 30,000 U.S. personnel have been deployed in Iraq, mainly in and around the capital Baghdad, since the launch of the security drive, in February. The situation is dire though since some fairly well developed breathing room has been extended for the Iraqis, but without anything approaching a legitimate and democratic government.

Russia Should Step Up to the Plate

Graphic source: BBC.

This story should be classified in the `What were they thinking' department.

In the unstable world of today, Russia, China, and India should be stepping up to the plate and if Russia has rejected the American proposal to place anti-missile defenses in Russia that is a good thing.

The only way to greater stability in the Middle Eastern Asian corridor is if these three nations decide that is what they want and they are willing to pay for it. The U.S. has committed itself to two areas, Iraq and Afghanistan, and that is enough. Either the remainder of the world wants to take up its fair share or they have decided the cost is not worth it. In either case, the U.S. should shift towards diplomacy and allowing other nations to pick up the slack.

U.S. Sticking Its Nose Into Turkish History

All right, since I've been riding the Turkish pony for a bit now I will weigh in on the latest development as well. Turkey recalled their ambassador home from the U.S.

The Turks negatively reacted against the U.S. Congressional draft resolution which labels the 1915-17 mass Armenian killings as genocide. The non-binding vote, passed by 27 to 21 votes by members of the Congressional House Foreign Affairs Committee, is the first step towards holding a vote in the House of Representatives.

The Turks are correct which is troubling.

Congress should not be historians of other countries.

For the time being, the position of Turkey, that there were mass killings in 1915-17 is enough: but, since Turkey denies genocide, the Congress saw fit to interject itself.

That is a mistake.

U.S. President George W. Bush argued against the resolution, saying its passage would do "great harm" to relations with "a key ally in NATO and in the global war on terror." He is correct.

The resolution will only irritate the Turks, annoy everyone else, and Congress should not be the arbiter of history.

The resolution can only increase the distrust that Turks have for the U.S. and it will have no positive influence whatsoever.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has tilted Turkey towards Islamic conservatism and the resolution comes in the wake of reports that the Turkish parliament would discuss allowing military incursions into northern Iraq, possibly next week.

The vote comes after an escalation in attacks by the terrorist group, the Kurdish PKK which killed almost 30 soldiers and civilians in just over a week.

I see no good in the U.S. voting on the history of another people and I think diplomatic measures would be a far more effective tool. Historians are the ones who have established the Armenian genocide as a fact and the Turkish government has acknowledged this fact. In light of so much instability in the Middle East Turkey has moved towards neutrality about as far as any sovereign nation can. That is enough.

Whither Turkey: Redux

Now that I've recently been considering Turkey, a genuine problem is Turkey's Armenian dilemma. One fact should be kept in mind: Turkey did not always deny the mass killing of Armenians.

Despite outside pressure, or more likely because of it, Turks are more apt to reject proposals by foreigners that state the Turks committed heinous crimes in the past.

The question becomes more pressing as membership, or even a prospective membership in the European Union, is possible.

Not all the Turkish developments are promising, for example, the latest Turkish penal code and its preamble of 2005 make prosecution possible if a person will "insult Turkishness," including the idea that the Ottoman Armenians suffered genocide.

But this was not always the case. Turkish authorities acknowledged the genocide in the immediate aftermath of World War I.

The Ottoman government was in place but only because of the British.

The Ottoman sultan assured the British that those who committed atrocities would be punished and there were four show trials. For example, in 1919 a governor, Mehmed Kemal, was found guilty and hanged for the mass killing of Armenians.

But once the Ottomans were discredited and the British lost interest the trials ended from a lack of zeal in prosecuting war criminals.

The entire Turkish state does not bear personal responsibility since the atrocities against the Armenians were committed by a small number of people in the former Ottoman government.

The new republican government, once in place in October of 1923, was in fact an act of revolutionary defiance against Ottoman power.

Moreover, the Turkish nationalist movement followed an army officer, Mustafa Kemal, who had nothing to do with the Armenian's plight.

The present Turkish government, as long as it remains secular, confident of its place in the world, and wishing to foster closer ties to Europe will remain a beacon of hope in the Middle Eastern region.

Whither Turkey goes in light of recent developments is the critical question for order or greater regional instability.

Whither Turkey?

Graphic source: Burhan Ozbilici/AP.

As Turkey goes so goes the moderate Middle East. Turkey is ready to send troops into Iraq now that Ankara approves possible cross-border military operations to chase Kurds.

In an action that is not going to please the U.S. and will not help lead the Middle East towards stability, the Turkish government is poised to cross the border into Iraq now that Turkish military troops have been killed.

The decision came in a meeting between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and officials from his ruling party.

It is possible that the United States and Iraqi Kurds could take definitive action against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.

In the last 10 days, more than two dozen people — including soldiers and civilians — were killed in southeastern Turkey in attacks by PKK rebels. Labeled a terrorist group by the U.S. and the European Union, it has fought government forces since 1984 in clashes that have claimed tens of thousands of lives.

The decision of Turkey is key because if they act hastily this will jeopardize ties with Western allies.

Turkish soldiers targeted suspected escape routes used by fighters and tracked rebels in the Gabar, Cudi, Namaz and Kato mountains in operations that began after 13 soldiers were killed in an ambush Sunday. Two more soldiers died in explosions Monday.

Turks are naturally furious that PKK rebels, labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S., can carry out attacks on Turkish soil and then slip across the border to mountain hideouts in the predominantly Kurdish region of northern Iraq. Turkey can retaliate by closing the border with northern Iraq, hurting the economy of the landlocked region.

Internal Turkish debates center on the problematic relationship that Erdogan’s party has with its opponents. Erdogan has a situation with his own military, which has put the Islamic-rooted government on notice it will not tolerate any effort to undermine Turkey’s secular traditions.

The PKK is branded a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the European Union. Its war with Turkey has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

The (Little) Kids Are All Right

Networking is alive and well for 6-year-olds in 'online sandbox' Club Penguin, which from the price of it, is no child's play.

Thousands of children barely old enough to read are already online.

Virtual networking environments aimed at young kids have blossomed into serious businesses, earning millions for their grown-up creators.

In August, none other than The Walt Disney Co. paid $350 million for Canada-based Club Penguin, with a promise of $350 million more if it meets its traffic targets.

Club Penguin claims to have 10 million users, of whom 700,000 have managed to persuade their parents to pay subscriptions of a few dollars a month so they can use virtual money to buy clothes for their penguins and furniture to decorate their igloos.

There are safeguards, appropriate for young children, but these kids seem to have been born with a mouse in their hands.

Club Penguin's biggest rival, Webkinz (Graphic source: Leader Talk.org), turned a formerly family-owned Canadian company that makes stuffed animals, into a high-tech media firm.

Webkinz has not released sales figures but once word of their shipments of stuffed animals were released parents flooded the stores resulting in sold out signs all over.

All the News That's Fit to Blog

MSNBC Interactive News joined the Web 2.0 innovators with its acquisition of Seattle-based Newsvine Inc., a site that focuses on citizen journalism.

Citizens populate Newsvine which will remain independent of MSNBC, with contributor columns, user profiles, group commenting, and conversation tracking aimed at bringing multiple perspectives to news stories.

Essay by Andrew Roberts, "At Stake in the Iraq War: Survival of a Way of Life"

At stake in the Iraq war: survival of a way of life
By Andrew Roberts, Thu Jul 12, 4:00 AM ET

London - The English-speaking peoples of the world need to unite around their common heritage of values. And they need to sacrifice their naiveté about the true nature of war – and the losses that inevitably go with it. Otherwise, they will lose a titanic struggle with radical, totalitarian Islam.

The reason they are under such vicious attack – my home city of London came within minutes of losing up to 1,000 innocent people in an attempted nightclub bombing two weeks ago – is that they represent all that is most loathsome and terrifying for radical Islam.

Countries in which English is the primary language are culturally, politically, and militarily different from the rest of "the West." They have never fallen prey to fascism or communism, nor were they (except for the Channel Islands) invaded.

They stand for modernity, religious and sexual toleration, capitalism, diversity, women's rights, representative institutions – in a word, the future. This world cannot coexist with strict, public implementation of Islamic sharia law, let alone an all-powerful caliphate.

Those who still view this struggle as a mere police action against uncoordinated criminal elements, rather than as an existential war for the survival of their way of life, are blinding themselves to reality.

Sending signs of surrender
But recent news suggests the blindness is growing. Antiwar sentiment in America is swelling. As key Republicans desert the president, senators are pushing amendments to force the withdrawal of US troops. All this before US Gen. David Petraeus reports on the surge.

Are the English-speaking peoples really about to quit before Islamic totalitarianism has been defeated in Iraq? Are they seriously contemplating handing the terrorists the biggest victory since the Marines' withdrawal from Beirut? It was that surrender in 1984 that emboldened Osama bin Laden to believe that his organization could defeat a superpower. Surrender in Iraq would prove him right.

As a Briton, I cannot help thinking that if the Americans of 1776 had been so quick to quit a long, drawn-out, difficult ideological struggle, America might still be ruled by my country today.

The new British prime minister, Gordon Brown, has dropped the phrases "war on terror" and "Muslim" or "Islamic" terrorism from the government's discussion of what Britons are fighting. Car bombs are going off – we just need to find non-threatening ways to describe them.

In Iraq and Afghanistan, meanwhile, English-speaking forces ignore such pusillanimity and get on with the vital job of fighting those who would turn the Middle East into a maelstrom of jihadist anarchy and terror.

We know that Al Qaeda cannot be appeased, because if they could, the French would have appeased them by now. Al Qaeda is utterly remorseless, even setting bombs (detected by authorities in time) on the Madrid-to-Seville railway line in April 2004, after Spain decided to withdraw its troops from Iraq.

Fortunately, however, the English have been here before. Thrice. Their history provides a number of apposite lessons about how to defeat this latest fascist threat.

Since 1900, the English-speaking peoples have been subjected to four great assaults: first from Prussian militarism, then by Axis aggression, then from Soviet communism. The present assault from totalitarian Islamic terrorism is simply our generation's equivalent of our forefathers' successful struggles against the three earlier fascist threats. But in this fourth and latest contest, victory is not yet in sight.

In researching my book, "A History of the English-Speaking Peoples Since 1900" – a coda to Winston Churchill's classic – I visited the papers of 200 individuals in 30 archives on three continents. While there, I could not help concluding that this struggle against Islamofascism is the fourth world war. And I was repeatedly struck by how often common themes from the four struggles emerged.

Today's struggle needs to be fought in radically different ways from the last three, of course, but ideologically it is nearly identical. Look at the common factors.

Just as on 9/11, the English-speaking peoples have regularly been worsted in the opening stages of a conflict, often through surprise attack. As Paul Wolfowitz put it at a commencement in June 2001: "Surprise happens so often that it's surprising that we're surprised by it."

Examples include: The 1898 sinking of the USS Maine, the 1899 Boer invasion of Cape Colony, German Emperor Kaiser Wilhelm II's right hook through neutral Belgium in 1914, the Nazi-Soviet Pact of 1939, North Korea's invasion of its southern neighbor, Gamal Abdel Nasser's nationalization of the Suez Canal in 1956, North Vietnam's decision to begin armed revolution against South Vietnam in 1959, Argentina's 1982 invasion of the Falklands, and Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

Almost all were sudden, unexpected, not predicted by the intelligence services, and they left the English-speaking peoples at a disadvantage in the opening stage of the coming conflict.

The next common factor was how badly the English-speaking peoples were faring even up to three or four years into the first three great assaults on their primacy. The most dangerous moment of World War I – at least after Paris had been saved by the Battle of the Marne in 1914 – came as late as March 1918, during Germany's massive spring offensive.

In World War II, Germany's Adolf Hitler seemed to be winning the war both in Russia and the Middle East until September 1942. And had it not been for the Battle of Midway the same year, the Japanese might well have rolled up the entire Pacific theater. Just three years into the cold war – 1948 – Mao Zedong had won control of China, Hungary's Communist opponent József Cardinal Mindszenty had been arrested, and the USSR's blockade of Berlin was in place.

Simply because a victorious exit strategy is not immediately evident in Iraq or Afghanistan today does not invalidate the purpose or value of winning either conflict, as so many defeatists and left-liberal commentators argue so vociferously.

Importance of English camaraderie
The comradeship of the English-speaking peoples during the first three assaults was inspirational. On Aug. 1, 1914 – three days before Britain declared war on Germany, the New Zealand parliament voted unanimously to raise an expeditionary force to join the fight half way around the world, even though Germany posed no conceivable strategic threat to her.

It was a myth that Britain stood alone in 1940. After the successful evacuation of Allied forces at Dunkirk, France, the only two fully armed infantry divisions standing between London and a German land invasion were two Canadian divisions. Although the United States was under no direct threat from the Nazis, she far-sightedly chose to pursue the seemingly counterintuitive policy of "Germany First," even though she had actually been attacked in Hawaii by Japan.

The massive American contribution to victory in World War II has sometimes been ignored during the present bigoted frenzy of anti-Americanism spearheaded by the BBC and liberal newspapers in my country. Yet it is when the English-speaking peoples stand together that they are victorious, and only when they do not – as at Suez and in Vietnam – that they are not.

President Bush's foreign policy is denounced as neoconservative because of its reliance on preemption. Yet was George Canning a neocon when he ordered Admiral Horatio Nelson to destroy the Danish fleet at the Battle of Copenhagen to prevent it falling into Napoleon Bonaparte's hands in 1801? Was Winston Churchill a neocon for having bombarded the Dardanelles Outer Forts in November 1914, before Britain declared war on the Ottoman Empire?

The right of self-protection from such threats is, as the British historian Enoch Powell has pointed out, "inherent in us" since it existed "long before the United Nations was ever thought of."

By far the most justifiable war in recent history is the one in Afghanistan against the Taliban, the government that hosted and protected Al Qaeda when it killed nearly 3,000 innocent people – and attempted to kill many more – on 9/11.

Today the war there is principally being fought by Americans, Britons, Canadians, Australians, and special forces contingents from New Zealand. Germany has confined its troops to the quiet north. French troops guard the Khyber Pass. Much of the rest of NATO has refused to send significant forces to the region. Once again, therefore, the English-speaking peoples find themselves in the forefront of protecting civilization.

We are told that a future US administration led by President Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would be keen to reorient foreign policy toward France and Germany, which might indeed be in America's short-term, passing, commercial interests.

The US should never forget, however, that in those moments when she is looking for true friends, it is the English-speaking peoples who stand shoulder to shoulder with her, not her fair-weather friends.

Above all, however, the American people can take great solace from the fact that they have been in this situation – or something very closely analogous to it – three times before in the last century. And each time, because of their fortitude and their refusal to accept anything less than outright victory, they have prevailed.

• Andrew Roberts is the author of "A History of the English-Speaking Peoples Since 1900."

Calling for An Islamic State in Australia

Aqeedah is an Islamic term meaning creed. The term has taken a significant technical usage in Muslim history and theology, denoting those matters over which Muslims hold conviction.

A group in Australia has drafted a constitution in which Aqeedah will hold sway.

Article 1
The Islamic ‘Aqeedah constitutes the foundation of the State. Nothing is permitted to exist in the government’s structure, accountability, or any other aspect connected with the government, that does not take the ‘Aqeedah as its source. The ‘Aqeedah is also the source for the State’s constitution and shar’i canons. Nothing connected to the constitution or canons is permitted to exist unless it emanates from the Islamic ‘Aqeedah.

I find it fascinating that Islamic elements see fit to decry the central tenets of Western constitutional law--separation of church and state--for a celebration and a return to medieval Islamic law.

These well-meaning Muslims are the moderates with which Western governments will need to contend with. On the one hand, flourishing because of Western liberal constitutions, Islamic impulses are seeking to dismantle its central tenets.

And in these impulses, I see little difference between them and the Nazi glorification of the past, and how in Weimar Germany for example the Nazis worked to dismantle constitutionalism, in favor of their glorified view of the past, and their distorted vision of the future.

Musharraf Wins in Pakistan But It Matters Little

Not that this election really means all that much but Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf was elected for a third term as president according to unofficial ballot results.

He still faces legal challenges because Pakistan's Supreme Court may rule Musharraf is ineligible to hold office as president. The second runner-up will take office instead, as the constitution stipulates.

Musharraf is facing a great deal of opposition. They demand that Musharraf abandon his position as Pakistan's military chief before seeking another presidential term.

90% of the overall votes are cast for Musharraf but there will be few people who can see it as a credible, normal election when a large number of his political opponents have said they do not want anything to do with it.

As on many points, Pakistan's national security depends on an Islamist, Pashtun-dominated régime according to Michael Scheuer's analysis (Imperial Hubris pp. 54-56) and I believe he is correct.

A Touch of Viagra with your Madera?

Graphic source: Sunbeltblog.

A touch of Viagra served with jurisprudence never hurt anyone I suppose. In a recent hack, the madera.courts.ca.gov site was hit with Viagra ads before it was taken down according to the Sunbeltblog.

There were no reports if the judges tarried before the site was changed back to its legitimate data.

UC Berkeley Free on YouTube

The University of California, Berkeley began to offer free course lectures on YouTube and this seems like a helpful addition to free course programs offered by places like MIT.

There are more than 300 hours of videotaped courses.

Berkeley has used open-source video since 2001, when its Educational Technology Services division launched webcast.berkeley.edu, a local site that now provides course and event content via podcasts and streaming video.

The number of courses available by podcast has increased from 15 to 86.

DHS Spams Classified Data

A DHS email gaffe revealed information, including classified data, on thousands of security pros. A story makes you fell just a little less secure.

A Reply All to a daily news roundup emailed by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security was sent to around 7,500 people which overwhelmed government and business mail servers with over 2 million messages today.

Marcus Sachs, the director of the SANS Institute's Internet Storm Center (ISC), discovered that the DHS was not using a mail list manager, or listserv, such as the open-source Mailman or the free Majordomo, but instead was transmitting the daily report from an e-mail address on a Lotus Domino Release 7.0.2FP1 server hosted by a government contractor.

You can't imagine who would like to have access to American confidential information.

The disclosure issue is illustrated painfully when email recipients received this message: "Subject: Is this being a joke? why are so many messages today? Amir Ferdosi Sazeman-e Sana'et-e Defa' Qom Iran" In a follow-up message, Ferdosi identified himself as a researcher with Iran's Ministry of Defense.

The DHS snafu revealed sensitive contact data to `undesirables.'

Now all that needs to be done is for some nefarious ne'er do well to send a zero-day PDF or Word attachment to the names now available and blast gullible security professionals.

Hackers, phishers and other cybercriminals could not have done any better than revealing the kind of information that was disclosed by the DHS list.

Documented Incident at Hawr Rajab

By mashing YouTube and a text source, Terrorist Death Watch, a quite reliable account of at least this one incident is documented.

The text account states:

An al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) effort to reestablish a position in the southern Baghdad province town of Hawr Rajab was repulsed when concerned local citizens engaged the terrorists with small-arms fire and called in U.S. forces for assistance, Oct. 2.

While two concerned citizens were wounded in fighting and treated at a nearby hospital, four enemy fighters were killed, an additional two wounded, and multiple insurgent weapons destroyed. U.S. forces detained one of the enemy wounded, and transported the other for medical treatment at Camp Cropper.

Events began mid-afternoon, when concerned citizens contacted Multi-National Division Center Soldiers after spotting suspected AQI vehicles in the vicinity of Hawr Rajab. A quick reaction force comprised of Paratroopers from 1st Squadron, 40th Cavalry Regiment, 4th Brigade Combat Team (Airborne), 25th Infantry Division, attached to the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry. Division responded to the call for assistance.

The U.S. Soldiers moved into town to find the concerned citizens already engaged in small-arms fire with AQI terrorists hiding in a boys’ school. After the brief engagement, the terrorists were observed fleeing the scene in a blue truck.

An air weapons team was called in to pursue the vehicle and later destroyed the truck and killed four terrorists. The engagement also destroyed two AK-47s and a 23 mm anti-aircraft machine gun in the back of the van.

Numerous calls to tips line by Iraqis in the wake of the incident confirmed the identity of the men as AQI.

Serbian Bomb Threat Thwarted

Graphic source: Herbert Pfarrhofer/EPA

The second of two men were held by Austrian authorities in a plot to bomb the U.S. Embassy in Vienna.

The pair are Bosnian suspects.

This possible accomplice of Asim C., a 42-year-old unemployed Bosnian, was arrested after he tried to enter the embassy with a backpack containing grenades, plastic explosives and bits of metal.

Next, the police nabbed Mehmed D., 34, and took him into custody.

Both men were citizens of Bosnia-Herzegovina who knew each other. Their identities are not fully released, the suspects' last names, because of Austrian privacy laws.

Asim C. was carrying a book which appeared to be a Muslim prayer manual.

I am confused by the position of Doris Edelbacher, chief spokeswoman for Austria's federal counterterrorism office, who played down speculation that the suspects were motivated by radical Islamic ideology.

What else?

Guenther Ahmed Rusznak, a spokesman for Vienna's Islamic community, issued a statement late Monday condemning the incident and rejecting radical Islam.

Mr. Rusznak seems to be taking the reasonable conclusion here.

Last month, three suspected al-Qaida operatives — all Austrian citizens of Arab origin in their 20s — were arrested in connection with a video posted online in March that had threatened Austria and Germany with attacks if they did not withdraw their military personnel from Afghanistan.

One of the suspects was released several days later for lack of evidence. Authorities in Canada, meanwhile, arrested another suspect believed to be linked to the Internet threat.

Microsoft SP1 Update

Microsoft is updating Vista's speed and stability, or so they say, and the company has posted more fixes for the OS, even as SP1 enters beta testing for developers.

Microsoft Alters Search

Graphic Source: Computerworld.com

Microsoft has slowly been revealing the next move or two and it looks like for Vista SP1 beta the most important modification is the search option. Microsoft has not widely publicized the move, no doubt because it is in response to an anti-trust decision, but the updated search allows a user to specify which search, such as Google, they would like.

Silicon First, So Who Is On Second?

Silicon Valley is of course the number one tech oriented area in the U.S. but more of a surprise is considering who is number two.

A good guess would be Boston or Seattle but the U.S. Census Bureau's annual American Community Survey (ACS) reveals a metropolitan area's "TQ" (technology quotient). In fact the honor of the second highest concentration of IT professionals is the Washington metro area.

The annual average salary for computer and information systems managers in Silicon Valley as of May 2006 was $139,460, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the D.C. metro area, that figure was $122,950.

Three Socially Conscious Sites

A positive move in organizations is the micro-finance work of Muhammad Yunus at the Grameen Bank. This is a site which chronicles how more than 7 million people have received small loans, which they've used to build small businesses.

Also, many people can benefit financially via the Net, e.g., through kiva or prosper.com, which provide loans for people with little or no collateral.

Finally, the oversight that Internet-based tools allow are requiring governments to be more accountable. For example, the Sunlight Foundation documents the flows of money and contracts within the U.S. government.

50 Years Ago: An October Surprise

Graphic source: ComputerWorld.

The really amazing thing about the 183-pound aluminum sphere called Sputnik, Russian for "traveling companion" is the enlightened response and collaboration between the government, President Eisenhower specifically, the military, and private researchers. Fifty years ago on 4 October 1957, radio-transmitted beeps from the first man-made object to ever orbit the Earth propelled the U.S. into the Space Age once the "October surprise" woke the country up.

America was a distant second. On 6 December 1957 an American Vanguard rocket that was to be the first U.S. satellite exploded on the launch pad. Dubbed the "Kaputnik," the U.S. lagged behind.

Hence the creation of the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), a rambunctious Pentagon office quickly created by President Eisenhower on 7 February 1958. The mission was to "prevent technological surprises," and although dominated by concerns of space, the office also stimulated computer research.

As a boomer, my young life was dominated by nightmares of Soviet domination, a heavy-handed curriculum push towards math and science. Not surprisingly, I studied history instead.

I can hardly imagine a worst grade-school preparation in this regard, and today such an enlightened and unified governmental response would be unthinkable.

I Still Have Checks, I Can't Be Overdrawn . . .

Bush announced that Social Security is facing a $13.6 trillion shortfall and that delaying reforms is not fair to younger workers.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department is on record in stating that some combination of benefit cuts and tax increases will need to be considered to permanently fix the funding shortfall.

Bush would like to privatize Social Security for younger workers while cutting some benefits and he has remained opposed to a tax hike to make up for the shortfall.

Privatization is not popular with Bush's opponents but I believe there is little choice. Young people are not planning their finances any better than previous generations.

Iran Does Not Like the U.S.

Should Americans really be upset now that the Iranian Parliament declared the U.S. Army and the CIA as terrorist organizations?

Hardly, the Parliament can now join American academics and commentators who noted that the Iranian President did not receive a warm welcome while in New York.

I guess that is what happens when you deny obvious and horrific events in history such as the Holocaust and continue to send state-sponsored terrorists to neighboring countries.

Lights Go Out

A disturbing story ran on CNN this week. A simulated attack points to just how vulnerable the U.S. power infrastructure really is.

Only a software vulnerability in a control system could be used to physically destroy power grid equipment.

A CNN segment demonstrated how a turbine was reduced to a smoking, shuddering, metal spewing mess as the result of malicious code execution on the computer controlling the system.

The Idaho National Laboratory prepared the demonstration for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The simulated attack re-visited an old issue, now rectified--in a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system.

The vulnerability points out how easily a well-executed digital attack could hit our critical infrastructure.

Since they run on proprietary systems, SCADA systems are less vulnerable than Internet accessible networks but they are not immune to the kinds of cyberattacks that can plague corporate information systems.

The present danger lies in an attacker who gains administrative access.

As utilities transition to connect with the Internet what has not happened is that the systems are secured and upgraded over time. The cost is prohibitive.

The move to Ethernet, TCP/IP and Web technologies will provide hackers and virus writers a number of backdoors and pathways to core control systems at utility companies, according to Eric Byres, CEO of Byres Security Inc., a consultancy that focuses on SCADA security.

The DHS and the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) have worked to address cybersecurity issues. NERC adopted eight new cybersecurity standards around asset identification, security management controls, personnel and training, perimeter security, systems security, incident reporting and response planning.

Although there are some helpful developments, I know locally that PECO Energy has enough difficulty supplying power when faced only with storms and trees. I'd hate to think how they could handle a malicious and determined attack.

Fortune Cookies, Again?

China does not seem capable of keeping their hands out of the cookie jar as reports indicate that two who were charged with espionage sought funding in China.

A federal grand jury indicted the two men of conspiring to steal high-tech trade secrets and develop them with Chinese venture capital funding.

The two, Lan Lee, 42, of Palo Alto and Yuefei Ge, 34, of San Jose, are accused of trying to steal trade secrets from their employer, chip maker NetLogics Microsystems Inc. They allegedly sought funding from China's General Arms Department and the 863 program, which is a government-led project aimed at boosting technology research in China.

Lee is an American, while Ge is a Chinese national.

However, the original indictment makes no mention of possible involvement by the government of China.

Talk Back

I attended a conference of educators and you really have to consider how slow education changes in comparison with other fields. The media formerly was a thing to consume but now the direction is on reader feedback. Web 2.0 hit with Digg and StumbleUpon in a big way but this similar phenomenon has yet to really impact education. What if people have an opportunity to provide immediate feedback and a reciprocal conversation ensues? Education want responses and this would accomplish that end. The days of not knowing how people are responding to your message are over. In former days an academic could toil in isolation not knowing how their research was received but now they can have instantaneous feedback. This would liven up the educational process tremendously. I recall the demands of publishing online eLearning research in the pre-bubble phase of the Internet and it was exciting. The demand for high quality ideas were there but the demand of time were so much greater. Publish or perish, sabbaticals are optional.

Al-Maliki on Iraq at the U.N.

Al-Maliki is asking that the flow of arms must stop pouring into Iraq and he is correct on this point.

Regions such as Anbar province are quieter but he did claim that there has been a drop in sectarian killings which is difficult to believe. There has been a wave of bombings and shootings which swept Iraq on Wednesday, killing at least 50 people.

The success in Anbar is a result of a coalition of Sunni sheiks and the U.S. military.

The Text of Comments by Columbia President Lee Bollinger

Graphic source: Getty Image File

I thought it proper, in order to fully understand the discussion, to provide the full text--according to CNN--of President Bollinger's comments about President Ahmadinejad. Thus, I reproduce the CNN story here. I'd like to see this text studied and commented about since there are very few American academics who seem to take Middle Eastern spokespersons to task, or to school as the case may be. Ahmadinjad claims to be an academic, and appeals to audiences as such, thus, he should be able to interact with the world community, and fellow academics, as one.

==NEW YORK (CNN) -- Columbia University president Lee Bollinger took Iran's president to task Monday, bluntly criticizing his record and saying he exhibits "all the signs of a petty and cruel dictator."

Columbia University president, Lee Bollinger, excoriated Iran's leader Monday.

Bollinger's assessment came as he introduced Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to an audience of students and faculty.

As he read a long list of documented actions and remarks by the firebrand Iranian leader and his government, the crowd of 600 applauded.

Ahmadinejad was at the university to give a speech and take part in a question-and-answer session.

During the introduction, Bollinger cited the Iranian government's "brutal crackdown" on dissidents, public executions, executions of minors and other actions.

He assailed Ahmadinejad's denial of the Holocaust as "ridiculous."

"For the illiterate and ignorant, this is dangerous propaganda," he said. He called the Iranian leader "either brazenly provocative or astonishingly uneducated."

"The truth is that the Holocaust is the most documented event in human history," he said.

"Will you cease this outrage?" he demanded.

Bollinger said he doubted Ahmadinejad would show the intellectual courage to answer questions posed to him.

Ahmadinejad opened his remarks by saying Bollinger's introduction was discourteous, intellectually dishonest and inaccurate.

He said academic freedom should prohibit the "vaccination" of the audience with negative comments about a guest speaker and his ideas.

"I think the text read by the dear gentleman here, more than addressing me, was an insult to information and the knowledge of the audience here, present here," Ahmadinejad said through a translator.
Don't Miss

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"In a university environment we must allow people to speak their mind, to allow everyone to talk so that the truth is eventually revealed by all," he said.

During his introductory remarks, Bollinger said Columbia would offer a faculty position to Kian Tajbakhsh, an Iranian-American social scientist who was released last week after having been held in Iran since May.

Tajbakhsh, a Columbia graduate, will be offered a position as visiting professor of urban planning as soon as Iran lets him leave the country, he said.

Bollinger asked Ahmadinejad to allow Tajbakhsh to lead a university delegation to address collegiate audiences in Iran on the subject of freedom of speech.

During a question-and-answer period after his remarks, Ahmadinejad invited Columbia students to visit Iran and promised to provide a list of universities for them. The audience applauded.
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"I am only a professor who is also a university president, and today I feel the weight of all the civilized world yearning to express the revulsion at what you stand for," Bollinger told Ahmadinejad. "I only wish I could do better."

After the session, Bollinger said Ahmadinejad left without properly answering many of the questions that were posed to him.

FBI Questions Unisys After Chinese Hack

IT systems integrator Unisys Corp. failed to detect the hacking of U.S. Department of Homeland Security computers; thereafter, data was sent to a Chinese-language Web site.

DHS had 844 "cybersecurity incidents" during the government's 2005 and 2006 fiscal years, and it described that number as "high and unacceptable."

The data breach adds to countries such as France, Germany and the U.K. that hackers in China have attacked them for sensitive information on government computer systems.

In 2002, Unisys won a $1 billion contract to manage U.S. government computer systems created after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks to shore up the nation's defense. Unisys received a $750 million contract in early 2006 to continue the work.

Three months passed before clues emerged that malicious software capable of copying and transferring files had been installed on 150 DHS computers. In 1997-1998 I monitored a network that featured the same type of shenanigans. In the DHS case, the software led to the transfer of unclassified data late at night or early in the morning to a Chinese-language Web site. This is Security 101.

Columbia's President Challenges Meglomaniac

Of course we want an ingrate such as Ahmadinejad to question 9/11 and the Holocaust so that the reams of academics who enjoy free inquiry in the U.S. can refute him. I heartily recommend providing a forum for the disturbed for this has been the only way to crowd out error and expose falsehood.

But that would have involved thinking in the U.S. and it is not to be expected everywhere.

At the Columbia University appearance, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad questioned the widely accepted view of the 9/11 attacks and defended the right to dispute the reality of the Holocaust.

Thankfully, there were edgy moments due to a sharp individual at Columbia University. Columbia President Lee Bollinger challenged Ahmadinejad by stating: "Mr. President, you exhibit all the signs of a petty and cruel dictator."

Finally, one American academic who does not willingly swallow the swill of every Islamist who appears to the West and claims to be misunderstood. "You are either brazenly provocative or astonishingly uneducated," Bollinger told Ahmadinejad.

Ahmadinejad, according to news reports, smiled at first but appeared increasingly agitated, decrying the "insults" and "unfriendly treatment." Welcome to free speech Ahmadinejad.

Audience members took Ahmadinejad to school over Iran's human-rights record and foreign policy, as well as Ahmadinejad's statements denying the Holocaust and calling for the disappearance of Israel.

"When you come to a place like this it makes you simply ridiculous," Bollinger said. "The truth is that the Holocaust is the most documented event in human history."

Ahmadinejad rose, also to applause, and after a religious invocation, said Bollinger's opening was "an insult to information and the knowledge of the audience here." I don't think hiding behind religion will work in the West.

During a question and answer session, Ahmadinejad appeared tense and unsmiling, in contrast to more relaxed interviews and appearances earlier in the day.

Ahmadinejad reiterated his desire to visit the 9/11 ground zero but he is on record questioning whether al-Qaida was responsible.

This might be his Holocaust II.

Asked about executions of homosexuals in Iran, Ahmadinejad said the judiciary executed violent criminals and high-level drug dealers by comparing them to microbes eliminated through medical treatment. He said: "In Iran we don't have homosexuals like in your country."

The audience roared derisively.

President Bush said Ahmadinejad's appearance at Columbia "speaks volumes about really the greatness of America."

Bush Leading Towards a Renewal of the Middle East Peace Process

The U.S., EU, Russia, and the U.N. are detailing a series of key talks to re-vitalize the Middle East peace process for a peace conference in November.

The Arab League will have representation.

In addition to Israel and the Palestinians, expected countries include: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia and Yemen and Syria.

A key move is that the Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert are drafting a document that would "lay the foundations for serious negotiations." The Arab representatives are criticizing the work as non-substantive.

The Islamist movement, Hamas, is already predicting the conferences are a waste of time.

Ian Hunter, "When The World Was Round," Animated Video Release

Jerkin' Crocus in the UK will release the first single from Ian Hunter's critically acclaimed album Shrunken Heads on 29 Oct 2007. 'When The World Was Round' will be available in three formats: a 7 inch picture disc, a CD single, and a DVD single. Each format will be on sale for £1.99, or all three can be bought for £3.99. The 7 inch and CD will both include unreleased material, whilst the DVD will include an animated video. Pre-orders are available now from Townsend Records.

U.N. Not to Abandon Iraq Again?

The U.N. may be ready to get its hands dirty again after abandoning the Iraqis after a 2003 bombing.

Secretary General Ban Ki-moon pledged that the time had arrived for determined action on Iraq. This should also be the time that nations that consistently weighed in on Iraq should arrive with their financing and ideas but I doubt that will happen.

It remains to be seen if the U.N. will make any difference given the fact that a greater U.N. presence will do little to ensure better security.

Since a 2003 bombing killed the U.N.'s top envoy--Sergio Vieira de Mello--and 21 others the U.N. presence has been negligible. Iraqi Primi Minister Nouri Maliki says he can now guarantee UN security. Not.

The U.N. recognizes that the military solution, as hammered out by the U.S., can not operate in a vacuum. The U.S. military has done all that it has been asked to do.

Now is time for others to jump into the breach.

Germany and Japan are pledging supoort. Saudi Arabia and Iran are making their presence known, however, this should involve a great deal of oversight from the international community. Too easily funding could be directed to groups that are de-stabilzing influences. More positively, representatives from international economic organisations such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have been involved in recent discussions.

Firefox, Not Only Just a Long Time to Download

The new Firefox 3.0 alpha blocks malware, takes a long time to tie up your computer while downloading as I realize from first-hand experience, and it secures plug-in updates.

I am glad to see that security features debut in the latest download, it is one of the best features of Firefox. Now that Mozilla Corporation has updated Firefox 3.0 to alpha 8, this is the revealing for the first time to users concerning the several security features that have been in the works.

One of the features debuting is the alpha of "Gran Paradiso," the code name for Firefox 3.0, which includes built-in anti-malware warnings and protection against rogue extension updates.

An interesting twist on the Firefox phenomenon are the small plug-ins--"extensions" in Mozilla lingo--thus increasing its scalability, range, and flexibility. Even more important is that the several thousand extensions originated with outside developers, that include diverse tools to pick from.

The browser is smart in that updates are authenticated and downloaded automatically.

This is a worthwhile upgrade while Mozilla has not officially announced a release date for the final version of Firefox 3.0.

Microsoft Reveals U.S. Navy Secrets

Microsoft is revealing U.S. submarine secrets through its Virtual Earth tool. The image clearly shows the propeller on an Ohio class submarine.

The picture has enough detail to show the seven-bladed prop. The image was photographed while the boomer was in dry dock at the Navy's base in Bangor, Washington.

This revelation might allow a reverse engineering opportunity for nefarious purposes.

In fact, submarine propulsion systems are engineered to operate as silently as possible and the design clearly is one of the Navy's most closely guarded secrets.

If you recall the movie The Hunt For Red October U.S. forces attempt to hunt down a Soviet submarine equipped with completely silent hydrojets with the drama hinging on the silent operation.

At least there were no topless sailors in the photo. In 2006, Google Earth caused quite a stir when the system photographed a Dutch woman sunbathing topless in her backyard.

Obvious: Cell Phone Usage Causes Brain Damage

Perhaps my headline is overstating the case but we all know frequent cell phone use may slow brain function which has been studied by researchers.

I know its true that when trying to walk through a store or when winding my way through traffic the cell phone users are dim-witted and in the way.

The researchers in Australia, England, and the Netherlands studied 300 persons and as published in the International Journal of Neuroscience, looked at the group of people over 2.4 years. A larger study expands the basics here to gather data on 17,000 people over a longer period of time.

Stanford Saves Face (book)

Stanford will host a course on designing applications in Facebook. The focus is designed to teach a broad range of students how to build "engaging Web applications." You might not know that from the actual name of the course: "Create Engaging Web Applications Using Metrics and Learning on Facebook."

What I find amusing about these higher education courses is that they are developing the things that at the secondary level students are being told to avoid.

7 Begin Trial in Miami

Graphic source: Department of Justice photo of Narseal Batiste.

The jury selection began in Miami for the seven men accused of plotting to destroy Chicago's Sears Tower and bomb FBI offices with the goal of inciting an anti-government insurrection.

The trial is in the wake of last month's conviction of Jose Padilla, formerly held as an enemy combatant, and two other men on murder conspiracy and terrorism support charges.

The seven men from the Liberty City neighborhood face charges of up to 70 years in prison if convicted of conspiracy to levy war against the United States and conspiracy to provide material support to al-Qaida.

The ringleader is a construction worker named Narseal Batiste, 33, and the seven were videotaped pledging allegiance to al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden.

The seven hoped to trigger a "full ground war" and replace the U.S. government with one based on Islam according to tape transcripts.

The objections to this case seem a big odd since the plotters never got far enough to assemble explosives and weapons. On the other hand, this went beyond just opinions, ideas, and speech. They were plotting and just because they did not pull it off is no reason to demean law enforcement.

Sim City Iraq

Iraq re-enactments are using 3-D imaging and innovative computer animation to show nascent commanders how the battles are shaping up. The "Virtual Staff Rides" come courtesy of the Combat Studies Institute at Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas.

The project has been in the works since February 2005.

France Prepared for Nuclear War With Iran

UPI ran a story quoting France's foreign minister as warning that the world should prepare for war if Iran obtains nuclear weapons. Bernard Kouchner added that European leaders were considering their own economic sanctions against the Islamic country.

I wonder what France has lost, certainly there are no principles that they would feel are worth defending.

Hackers Aim at Web 2.0

Web 2.0 is barely out of the bag but hackers have already loosed a torrent of malicious code threats aimed at vulnerabilities, Symantec Corporation announced today. The most dangerous targeting vulnerabilities? Browser plug-ins.

Second to Microsoft?

Another disappointing decision for Microsoft from a 2004 antitrust ruling in the European Union.

The Court of First Instance rejected Microsoft's appeal, and confirmed both of the behaviors the European Union's Competition Commission said were illegal. Microsoft has bundled, or ties Windows Media Player to the operating system. And, Microsoft used the dominance of Windows on the desktop to increase in the share of the server software market.

In August 2000 the European Union's Competition Commission filed its first "Statement of Objections," or official complaint, against Microsoft. The complaint accused Microsoft of withholding technical information that would have let other server operating system developers make their products interoperate with Windows clients.

No fan of Microsoft here but who will be able to replace Microsoft and actually be their competition?

Wikipedia Summary of Imperial Hubris

One of the most worthwhile books I have read in some time: Imperial Hubris. I reproduce here, in its entirety, the Wikipedia article as of today on the work.

Summary of Imperial Hubris

Preface

Author a "career-long 'headquarters' officer . . . focused exclusively on terrorism, Islamic insurgencies, militant Islam, and the affairs of South Asia ― Afghanistan and Pakistan" (ix-x). Conclusions: (1) "We are fighting a worldwide Islamic insurgency ― not criminality or terrorism"; (2) current policies make the military "America's only tool"; (3) bin Laden's reasons are "U.S. policies and actions in the Muslim world"; (4) his war depends on "the tenets" of Islam; (5) U.S. interest in "Persian Gulf oil" central; (6) war may last many decades and be fought "mostly on U.S. soil" (x-xi). Foreboding of future attack; reproach to neglect of "duty" by "leaders" (xii).

Acknowledgments

Foreign Broadcast Information Service; a small group of "mostly women" officers working "against the bin Laden target" (xiii); references to U.S. martial past (xii, xiv, passim).

Introduction: "Hubris Followed by Defeat"

U.S. is completing the radicalization of the Islamic world (xv). War in Afghanistan "is being lost" (xvi). Invasion of Iraq was militaristic, untimely, "avaricious, premeditated, unprovoked war" (xvi-xvii). Osama bin Laden's strength is his ideas, grounded in Islam (xvii-xviii). He is waging "a defensive jihad" to advance "clear, focused, limited, and widely popular foreign policy goals" (xviii). Sources: bin Laden's pronouncements, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Sulayman Abu Gayeth, 3 web sites (Al-Ansar, Al-Neda, and Al-Islah), various secondary sources (xix). Importance of Internet emphasized (xx). Hubris seems to doom us; "al Qaeda sees the world clearer than we" (xxi).

Ch. 1: Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred

Most Muslims reject separation of religion from politics (2). So they take seriously anti-Islamic statements from U.S. evangelists (2-4). Like most Muslims, bin Laden sincerely loves God (4). Islam's "loving tone" (4-6). Defensive jihad is a personal obligation, requiring no authority (sources: Bernard Lewis, Daniel Pipes) (6-8). U.S. policies and actions, not values, are the cause (8-11). Evidence of U.S. attack on Islam, from Muslims' perspective: (1) U.S. challenging Muslim jihad, charity, and curricula (11); (2) U.S. supporting oppression of Muslims, apostate Muslim regimes, anti-Muslim economic and military sanctions, and control of oil in Muslim lands (12-13); (3) politically, U.S. denies self-determination to Muslim lands, occupies Muslim states, supports Israeli expropriation of Palestine (13-14). These views are nearly universal in the Muslim world and cannot be undone through PR (14-16). U.S. is seen as the restorer of colonialism (16). The fault is not in them, but in us: the cause of the war is "their love for Allah and their hatred for a few, specific U.S. policies and actions" (17). Bin Laden and the mujahideen are "legitimate and romantic heroes" loved as "symbols of hope" (18-19).

Ch. 2: An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat ― The United States in Afghanistan

Intelligence advice: "do the checkables first" (21-22). Al Qaeda has achieved seven major "victories": Aden, Mogadishu, Riyadh, Dharan, Nairobi/Dar es Salaam, Aden, 9/11 (22-24). U.S. should have had plans for immediate response and executed them ― but did not (24-27). U.S. had vast expertise on Afghanistan, but failed to use it after 9/11 (27-30). Lessons from the Soviet war in Afghanistan available, but unused (30-32). By Sept. 1, 2001, the Afghan Northern Alliance was a defeated force, and after the assassination of Ahmed Shah Masood on Sept. 9, certainly not the basis of a national government (33-35). Masood represented only "a small subset of the country's Tajik minority" (35-37). The Karzai régime and its allies are hopelessly unrepresentative (37-39). U.S. ignored key Islamic commanders (41-45). The Karzai government is doomed (45-46). Seven truths about Afghans ignored by U.S.: (1) only Pashtuns rule durably (47); (2) the U.S. backed Westernized Afghans, not the "Muslim tribal xenophobes" who matter (48-49); (3) Afghans can't be controlled by money (49-51); (4) strong central governments, like the one Karzai is seeking, cause war in Afghanistan (52); (5) Afghanistan is a cauldron of international tensions (53-54); (6) Pakistan's national security depends on an Islamist, Pashtun-dominated régime (54-56); (7) an Islamic régime in Kabul is inevitable (56-57).

Ch. 3: Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum

Al-Qaeda's fighters compared to those of the Army of Northern Virginia in the American Civil War (59-60). Al Qaeda follows principles of successful insurgent groups (60-61). When attacked, the Taliban dispersed effectively (61-66). U.S. lacks knowledge of al-Qaeda's order of battle, so cannot estimate damage to the organization (66-68). U.S. still hampered by a "law-enforcement mentality" (69-71). Two recent studies are good: Jason Burke's Al Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror (2003), and Rohan Gunaratna, Inside al Qaeda's Global Network of Terror (2002) (71). Al-Qaeda extremely popular in Saudi Arabia (71-74). Ansar al-Islam received effective help from al-Qaeda in northern Iraq (74-75). Al-Qaeda is present in Lebanon, but does not cooperated operationally with Hezbollah (76-77; see 229). Al-Qaeda's effective use of the Internet (78-84). Given U.S. policies, "blood-soaked offensive military actions" are the only path to victory (84-86). The following "balance sheet of 2001-2004" excludes Kashmir, Philippines, Algeria, Palestine, and Aceh (Indonesia) (86). "Victories" for U.S. and allies "almost entirely tactical" (87-91). Al Qaeda's and allies' "victories" show "strategic environment" has shifted in their favor (91-100). Acc. to al-Qurashi, al-Qaeda considers the U.S. center of gravity to be the economy, not public opinion (101-02).

Ch. 4: The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus?

"Viewed from any angle, Osama bin Laden is a great man," "world-changing" in Western eyes and revered by tens of millions of Muslims (103-05). The evil-criminal view (105-07). Denigrations of his mind and capacity for leadership (107-09). Said by some to be dominated by al-Zawahiri (109). The thesis that Islam is a "failed civilization" lashing out in resentment (109-13) does not jibe with bin Laden's view: he blames Muslims themselves (114-15). Ideals of tolerance and multiculturalism impede analysis (115-16). Bin Laden as military genius (Christopher Bellamy) (117). Bin Laden as business genius (Larry Seaquist; Bruce Hoffman) (117-18). These miss the religious inspiration of the Islamic hero (118-21). Testimony of those who know him (121-22). Influence of size of his enemy (U.S.) (123). Bin Laden inspires love (124-25). He, like Abraham Lincoln, represents belief in a moral universe (Scheuer quotes again from Kent Gramm's Gettysburg: A Meditation on War and Values (1994) (125-26; also xii and passim).

Ch. 5: Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist

Importance of bin Laden's words, neglected by the West (127-29). Main concept: defending the ummah [= Islamic community bound by religious ties on a tribal model (OED)] from U.S. attacks (129-31). Al-Qaeda's role is principally to awaken and incite Muslims (131-34). Suicide bombers perceived positively in Muslim world as heroes of "self-sacrifice, patriotism, and worship" (135). Bin Laden's elegy of 9/11 hijackers misunderstood in West (135-36). Bin Laden frustrated by inadequate response from Muslim middle and upper-middle classes (137). Poem by bin Laden; use of poetry (138). Bin Laden's historical uniqueness comes from focusing Islamic resistance on the international level, on the U.S. (139-40). The centrality of Afghanistan is due to a need for a new Muslim state as a world center from which to launch a new caliphate (140-44). Recent refinements: allowing some attacks on non-U.S. targets (145-47), creating a vulnerability should a free-lancer cause Europe and U.S. to come together again (148); attacking "apostate régimes" more directly and accusing clerics of compliance with corrupt U.S.-backed power (148-52); preparing Muslim opinion by presenting arguments justifying WMD attack on U.S. (152-58). Bin Laden's 2001 statements on U.S. attitudes, unheeded (158-61).

Ch. 6: Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves ― Non-Wars, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy

American élites' blinding "imperial hubris" (term also used in Through Our Enemies' Eyes [2001]) endangers U.S. safety (163-168). The case of bin Laden is a maximal instance of this (168). Bin Laden's fidelity to his words demonstrated by pattern of post-9/11 attacks (169-70). 1990-2003 U.S. "victories" are really only self-declared ―no foe has been defeated (170). E.g. Afghanistan (171-77). Castigates U.S. military hierarchy: "lieutenant colonel . . . seems to be where truth-telling stops" (177). Win-quick and low-casualties-on-both-sides an "immoral" approach to war that violates the "basic lesson of military history since Alexander" (177-80). E.g. Afghanistan (180-81), Iraq (181-82). Placing Mongolian and Indian troops in Iraq shows ignorance of history (182-83). It is un-American to argue that only those with military experience can criticize military policy and operations (183-84). Some U.S. general should resign to protest recent U.S. approach to war (184-85). U.S. policy mentality too legalistic (185-86). CIA & FBI have "fundamentally incompatible" missions ― one breaks the law, the other enforces it (187-88). Law-enforcement focus lulls public (188-89). Islamists not affected by legal approach (189-90). We need to "fix the problems" in "intelligence community cooperation" (190-92). Endemic leaking by officials is treason due to hubris (192-99). John Quincy Adams in 1821: "America does not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy" (200-01). Invasion of Afghanistan is an arrogant attempt to do just that (201-03). Worse, U.S. leaders show no knowledge of American history (203-04). U.S. political achievements hard-won and not historically transferable (204-05). Muslim society, "where God and Caesar are the same," presents special difficulties (205-06). Recommendation: "Victory, I think, lies in a yet undetermined mix of stronger military actions and dramatic foreign policy change" (207).

Ch. 7: When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How America's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes

Unlike Khomeini in Iran, bin Laden has six focuses foreign policy goals: (1) end U.S. aid to Israel; (2) U.S. withdrawal from Arabian peninsula; (3) end of U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan; (4) end of U.S. support for Muslim oppression by China, Russia, India, etc.; (5) Muslim control of oil and sale at market prices (6) Islamist régimes instead of U.S.-protected Muslim régimes (209-12). Invasion of Iraq an unexpected gift to bin Laden (212-14). U.S. failed correctly to analyze the threat in the 1990s (214-16). Camps were training not only "terrorists" but, especially, "insurgents" (216-22). As a result "the brutal reality . . . is that we must kill many thousands of these fighters" (222). Coalition-building after 9/11 wasted time, imposed civilized standards, and counterproductively associated the U.S. with oppression elsewhere (222-26). Israel: "Objectively, al Qaeda does not seem too far off the mark when it describes the U.S.-Israel relationship as a detriment to America" (227-30). Post-9/11 measures that have increased Muslims' anti-American feelings: Immigration rule changes (231-33); interference with freedom of speech (233-34); hi-tech war briefings (234-35).

Ch. 8: The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate

Risk aversion in the intelligence bureaucracy (237-38). Guidelines for use in defeating bin Laden and militant Islam: don't overblow the war (239); stop glorifying bereavement (239-40); accept that we are hated for our policies and acts (240-41); be bloody-minded and kill in large numbers (241-42); fight without principle ("engaging in whatever martial behavior is needed") (242); "stop knee-jerk yellow ribboning" (242-43); depend on ourselves, not others (specifically, Pakistan) (243-44); rely on real expertise (244-45); deal with bin Laden as a warrior, not a terrorist (246-47); attain energy self-sufficiency (247-48); break the military-industrial institutional nexus, perhaps by "banning many post-retirement jobs in exchange for a full-salary annuity after thirty years" (248-49); accept that we are at war with Islam (249-50); "learn to watch others die with equanimity" (Ralph Peters) (250-52). War cannot be avoided, but new policies affecting the length and cost of war are possible (253-54). Recommended reading (254). We must accept that bin Laden is "a worthy and dangerous foe" (255). U.S. needs a frank and public policy debate (255-57). Questions: Does support for Israel serve U.S. interests? (257) Do we have a duty to defend freedom beyond our borders, or to "abandon the sordid legacy of Woodrow Wilson's internationalism"? (257-58) What do we gain from backing corrupt tyrannical Muslim régimes, except for cheap oil? Have we the moral courage for energy self-sufficiency? Do we need bases on the Arabian peninsula? Do we have the moral right to spread democracy? (258) Hopes for policy changes, but "as always, the majority must rule" (259).

Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism

Americans have still not recognized the nature of the war they are losing (citing George Tenet's late-Feb. 2004 testimony to a Senate committee) (261-63).

Child's Play

This is a scene of a Shia child being raised in the Middle East.

U.S. Grant on How To Conduct American Warfare

The art of war is simple enough. Find out where the enemy is. Get at him as soon as you can. Strike him as hard as you can and as often as you can, and keep moving on.

General U.S. Grant

Graphic source: www.ushist.com.

It may seem strange that today I am reflecting on how to increase U.S. troop levels in the wake of Bush's reluctant acquiescence for the necessity of a troop withdrawal. Readers of this blog should be accustomed to the oddness of my perspective by now though. Today I wonder why we are not increasing the level and lethality of our troops.

We are convincing worldwide insurgents that America has not the will nor the stomach for warfare.

Americans, for their part, sated with their congratulatory self-satisfaction in their humaneness and civilized conduct of war are relieved with the satisfaction that the desultory Bush has finally seen the light of day.

If only things were that simple.

Grant, who knew a thing or two about war, during the Civil War showed Americans how war is conducted and he was successful in eliminating the Confederacy.

Through their shock and awe, horrifying for the time, Grant and Sherman demonstrated to the American people how to decapitate, destroy, and obliterate the enemy: the Confederacy.

American democracy was all the stronger as a result and the U.S. lost none of its moral strength for unleashing the full fury of finally and completely mobilizing the North's might through the Union army.

Americans have lost their killer instinct and seem to believe war can be conducted cleanly, clinically, and safely illustrated on CNN in sound bites. The illustrations reassure Americans that we are systematically tracking down the enemy, as false as that conclusion is, and it demonstrates to the enemy, who is also watching, that though some die--rewarded by entering paradise no less--America can be beaten, since the deadly might of America is tempered by public opinion and restrained from unleashing its fury. The conclusion, `this too shall pass,' is clear.

War is hell according to General Sherman but once engaged stopping and engaging in half-military measures only makes America less secure and ensures that more American soldiers will die needlessly in subsequent deployments.

Debate all you want about the reasons for originally engaging in the conflict in Iraq but we are failing to conduct war as Americans have found to be necessary in order to successfully bring about the desired result.

Also, Americans are not convinced we are at war in any case. We fail to accept bin Laden as he is, true to his word, lethal, patient, clever, and long-suffering in seeking a death blow to American.

The import of his latest videos is a warning, convert to Islam before it is too late, the standard Muslim announcement before an attack which justifies to an Islamic audience that the devastation to be inflicted can be avoided if only the infidel would have listened. The next spectacular al-Qaida attack is coming. 9/11 was just a warm-up.

In the announced troop withdrawal, none of Grant's precepts are being followed.

We don't know where the enemy is. We are not pursuing the enemy with all deliberate and lethal speed. Our tepid attacks have not dented the enemy's resolve. We are not hitting often, and we are bogged down in both Iraq and Afghanistan, even retreating.

Our modern distaste for historic American military violence notwithstanding, we will have to go back, we will have a more devastating attack on mainland America, and more innocents and soldiers will needlessly die for no visible gains.

"One Fine Night, When We Were All in Bed, Mrs. Osama Left An IED in the Shed"

Graphic source: Wikipedia Commons, originally published in Harper's Weekly.

What you don't know won't hurt you is a saying very wrong in the confidential Chicago terrorist threat assessment which was leaked over P2P. In 2002, a study performed by top consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton Inc., commissioned by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA), considered 35 threat assessments of the nation's bus and rail systems.

Larry Yellen, a Fox News reporter, acquired the confidential terrorist threat assessment on Chicago over a peer-to-peer (P2P) program, LimeWire, a public file-sharing network.

With Al-Qaida urging the U.S. to embrace Islam, a traditional notice before an imminent military strike, the information is revealing, and alarming in how available critical knowledge is readily disseminated on the Internet.

Popular P2P clients such as Kazaa, LimeWire, BearShare, Morpheus, and FastTrack are designed to let users quickly download and share files. If the access these P2P clients have on a system is not secure, it is easy to expose and share personal data with users on a file-sharing network.

In July, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform heard testimony from several witnesses about how everything from classified military documents to corporate data can be found on P2P networks. The leaked documents on P2P networks included the Pentagon's entire secret backbone network infrastructure diagram; contractor data on radio frequency manipulation to defeat improvised explosive devices in Iraq; and physical terrorism threat assessments for three major U.S cities.

Bush as Saladin: Bin Laden Hiding in a Cave

Graphic source: The White House.

Once the death toll mounts for Arab fighters it is at that time that victory is declared. This is the historical pattern made clear by successive defeats against Israel. Once Bush announces his plans this evening to withdraw a limited number of troops, no doubt citing that some of the benchmarks have been met, the Arab response will be to declare victory.

Meanwhile, hiding in a cave somewhere is the person who has refused to sacrifice himself; in contrast, Bush has visited his troops three times to lend moral support.

Who should be humiliated by their behavior?

Thought on 9/11

If U.S. leaders truly believed the country is at war with bin Laden and the Islamists, they would dump the terminally adolescent bureaucrats and their threat matrix, accept and tell the voters that war brings repeated and at times grievous defeats as well as victories, and proceed with relentless, brutal, and yes, blood-soaked offensive military actions until we have annihilated the Islamists who threaten us, or so mutilate their forces, supporting populations, and physical infrastructure that they recognize continued war-making on their part futile.

Imperial Hubris, Michael Scheuer, p. 85.

Not Much New for Osama

Bin Laden didn't have much to say. There is a new tape of a 9/11 terrorist but the same old tired rhetoric. The audience for this tape is Middle Eastern. I can't see how many people in an American context are fearful as one of the points of the attack seemed to be.

With nothing compelling to say, al-Qaida will wait to strike in a bigger and bolder attack. They are patient.