Analysis of the First Debate

In the analysis of most commentators I believe last night's debate will be considered a draw. Both candidates were obviously not completely comfortable with the format, neither looked directly at the opponent for about the first 45 minutes, and they only got a bit more testy as the night wore on. If neither scored a knockout punch, then what else can we say about the candidates as they faced off head to head?

The debate hurt McCain more since he needed a knockout punch if he expected to pick up much needed votes. Also, it is difficult to evaluate the visible but hard to interpret reaction line that ran beneath the screen, consisting of Democrats, Republicans, and critically important Independents, but I would guesstimate that the Independents found Obama's words and promises more appealing.

On the other hand, several comments are in order. The issues of the economy seemed to have stumped Obama. When asked directly if he favored the proposed $700 billion dollar bailout, he waffled. Then, as a follow-up, when asked what he would cut since he identified not everything can be funded and some projects would need to be delayed, he again seem mystified. We are in dire financal straits but Obama went on to list more programs that he favored and would pay for, treasured Great Society programs such as education and food for poor children. Obama doesn't get it. He is not LBJ. We don't have that federal largesse any more. At one point McCain noted that Obama is the furthest from center candidate ever nominated by either major party. On the other hand, McCain stated his position bluntly. He would pay for defense, care for our veterans, and veto spending bills to reign in the free-spending government. In a time of fiscal crisis, which guideline might work? The French before the Revolution fell into a tailspin during war time yet they continued to fund extravagant projects.

In addition, McCain has been there. During any questions that involved how would you handle such and such international crisis or war effort, McCain was able to deftly respond, I've been there, I know the particulars and the players, and this is what I would do. Obama was left flailing on the ropes. He is embarrassingly out of his league in experience and international affairs, and the global situation is more dangerous today than it ever was during the Cold War. He is not prepared to handle an international crisis.

On the specific issues of war, Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama is running against the ghost of George Bush circa 2003. It is not 2003; it is 2008 and the surge worked in Iraq, and the military can apply the lessons learned there to achieve covert and overt victory in Afghanistan as well. Yet, Obama said we need to press Pakistan and take care of Osama et. al. by ourselves if necessary. As McCain rightly observed, you don't announce your intentions to your enemies, and doesn't Obama realize we have CIA assets in Pakistan who no doubt at this very moment are operating undercover? You don't unnecessarily put your troops at risk.

And, last but not least, isn't the lack of respect towards McCain revealing? Obama consistently referred to McCain as "John," ironically, even calling him "Tom" at one point, as if they were long-time colleagues from the Senate. They are not. In the Senate, Obama is in the background but McCain is a player who has reached across the aisle and cooperated with Democracts to sponsor major legislation. McCain, on the other hand, conducted himself as a gentleman, and respectfully referred to Obama as "Senator."

In the critical issue of experience versus judgement, McCain's experience trumped Obama's hailing of his sound judgement by calling him to task. Obama can not deliver; he is the Teflon candidate.

Of Vices and Dustbins

And now let us praise famous men, drum roll please: George Clinton, Elbridge Gerry, Daniel D. Tompkins, Richard M. Johnson, George M. Dallas, William R. King, Hannibal Hamlin, Schuyler Colfax, Henry Wilson, William A. Wheeler, Thomas A. Hendricks, Levi P. Morton, Garrett A. Hobart, Charles W. Fairbanks, James S. Sherman, Thomas R. Marshall, Charles G. Dawes, Charles Curtis, John N. Garner, Henry A. Wallace, Alben W. Barkley, Hubert H. Humphrey, Spiro T. Agnew, Nelson A. Rockefeller, Walter F. Mondale, and J. Danforth Quayle. If the names do not roll off the tongue, nor can you really identify who and what they are about, this should not surprise us. They are a particularly undistinguished lot in terms of their actual service record in the position in question. Even when their names are somewhat familiar, George Clintion, not the singer, nor related to "Slick Willie, or Gerry providing his name to a disreputable political practice, "gerrymandering," or even those more recent figures whose names might be somewhat known and may ring a bell: Wallace, Humphrey, Agnew, Rockefeller, Mondale, or Quayle, they are not easily identified. The point here is that Vice-Presidents, the list of unknowns here, really are "just a heartbeat away from the Presidency," but most Vice-Presidents simply retreat into the dustbin of history. It is true of course that numerous Vice-Presidents were known commodities, but that is largely because they went on to distinguish themselves as President or they were identifiable as part of a larger historical movement or made another important contribution.

To wit, Palin is a political choice for the Republican ticket, if she does not know all the intricacies of foreign policy, she will simply do what all Vice-Presidents do, study for the job and if history calls upon her, God help us if she is not ready.

This is the traditional role of Vice-Presidents anyway. Most just fade away over time. The more interesting aspect of the Republican ticket, it seems to me, is that many people already have poor McCain dead and buried while displaying an unhealthy predilection towards age discrimination.

Many older people can and do have important contributions to make to this country. I would hope that the nay-sayers would lighten up. McCain might not die tomorrow.

McCain Believable on Economy

McCain does not need to "grand-stand" on the economy, in fact, it hurts him. It is not in his interest to suspend the debates unless he truly believes, and he is of course a key player, he can help the U.S. to end the financial crisis. He would be better off trumpeting Iraq, an issue that he comes off stronger in the polls, if he were really only trying to get attention for his campaign. The debate should end and the principals should agree to a plan.

Maverick McCain Shows His Presidential Character

Whether he wins or loses, there is a candidate who certainly appears Presidential. In another surprising move for a guy who is accused of being more of the same, McCain had another idea. McCain announced that he is suspending his campaign to return to Washington and focus on the "historic" crisis facing the U.S. economy. If Obama follows, and he is in a difficult position, since he is following, he will demonstrate that he is not a leader. If he continues on the campaign trail, he will demonstrate that he is more interested in himself, and his campaign, than he is in the country's well-being. McCain also called on the organizers of Friday's presidential debate to postpone the event.

Bush has proposed a $700 billion bailout for the troubled U.S. economy.

The proposal was drafted by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

The troubling aspect of the Obama campaign is that he previously just played politics as usual by lashing out at the Bush administration, McCain, and the handling of the crisis on Wall Street as well as the $700 billion bailout plan by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.

The move would be the most sweeping economic intervention by the government since the Great Depression. Maybe we should think about it first: 'ya think?

Petraeus 2008 Ramadan Style

A spokesperson for the Multi National Forces (MNF) in Iraq on Wednesday stated that violence during Ramadan 2008 was 82% less when compared with Ramadan 2007. And, speaking of comparison, if Petraeus was Washington, he would hailed as one of American's finest generals ever. But alas, he will not receive as much credit as he deserves for carrying out one of the most significant about-faces ever in American military history.

Advice to the President?

What would you do if you had to advise the next President? We would all probably wonder what we would say to the politicians if we had the chance, starting with, perhaps, work harder, but secretaries of state actually get to advise the President. Five former secretaries of state recently had some words of advice. Former Secretary of State James Baker advised engaging Syria. Baker served President George H.W. Bush and has endorsed McCain.

Colin Powell criticized McCain's toughness on Moscow. He pointed out that the Russian Federation had legitimate interests in the region. Interestingly, Powell has not decided which candidate to back. He stated the election of an African-American president "would be electrifying, but at the same time [I have to] make a judgment here on which would be best for America." Powell is hedging his bets.

Henry Kissinger, who served under Nixon and Ford, said the U.S. needs Russia for help on Iran and we may need Russia if Pakistan evolves in a positive direction.

Madeleine Albright stated that the U.S. did not understand Iranian society. Yes, Madeleine, so what is your point? Does Iran understand us?

Warren Christopher said we should check how authentic the Iranians are while we attempt to negotiate with them. We have to be wary because of their nuclear potential but without substantive dialogue we have few alternatives "because, frankly, the military options here are very, very poor." He is correct on that point.

U.S. Allies, the Pakistanis, Fire Upon American Troops

Our beloved allies, the Pakistani military, fired on U.S. helicopters as they attempted to cross Pakistan's border to attack the Taliban in the lawless region near the village of Lwara Mundiof, North Waziristan. The area is dominated by the Taliban Haqqani family. Pakistani regular Army and Frontier Corps units opened fire during two separate incidents. Since U.S. sources denied the incursion, it is possible that the Pakistanis are simply posturing for their domestic audience. They have to play up to the insurgents in their midst and show how they are standing up to the U.S.

Pakistan may yet need U.S. intervention. We have eliminated three senior al Qaeda leaders who have been killed in the attacks. Also, the Haqqanis, run by Jalaluddin and Siraj Haqqani, has also been hit heavily. We need to attack these targets because otherwise AQ will have the ability to plan and conduct attacks against the West since we know these are the staging grounds for attacks against us. Pakistan may regret having these cretins in their midst.

Pakistan's leaders seem to think you can placate the insurgents but the suicide attack against the Marriott Hotel should convince them otherwise. The majority of those killed were Pakistanis.

Two U.S. Killed in Islamabad

Two members of the U.S. armed forces were killed in the Islamabad Suicide Blast (ISB) that killed more than 50 people at the Marriott Hotel, the Defense Department said on Sunday.

10% Undecided: McCain Ahead in Florida, Ohio, and Missouri

Sens. Obama and McCain are neck and neck in key battleground states. The key states are Florida, Ohio, and Missouri. McCain holds a one-point lead in Florida, ahead of Obama 47-46 percent. Obama has outspent McCain by a margin of more than eight to one. McCain also leads by a one-point margin in Ohio, up 47-46 percent. In Missouri, McCain leads Obama by four points, 49-45 percent. 6 percent remain undecided in Missouri. Obama is ahead in CNN's national poll of polls. Obama is ahead of McCain by three percentage points, 47-44. About 10 percent of voters are still undecided so the debates could prove critical but it is not unusual that the winner in the debates still goes on to lose the election, to wit, Kerry lost to Bush last time around.

Bin Laden the Pop Star

Graphic source: Language and Communication

Poetry recitals by Osama Bin Laden will be published from performances at wedding banquets and feasts from the 1990s. The performance tapes were preserved on recordings recovered from his compound in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks. Professor Flagg Miller, an Arabist at the University of California, Davis, reports that Bin Laden excells in a standard Arabic poetic form, hamasa--a warlike poetic tradition from Oman--that is enormously popular throughout the Islamic world. Bin Laden was so well known at the time that many people taped him and the recordings were circulated like pop songs.

Some sample lines of one poem states:
“A youth who plunges into the smoke of war smiling stains the blades of lances red. May God not let my eye stray from the most eminent humans, lest they fall.”

The FBI originally suspected that the poems may have coded messages to sleeper cells but it seems more obvious that Bin Laden simply expressed himself in a typical Islamic manner. The search for coded messages, hidden in typical Arabic poetry, is part and parcel of how the U.S. fails to grasp the obvious. Bin Laden explicitly stated his intentions, and then carried out all of his threats, all in plain sight (Cf. Michael Scheuer, Through Our Enemies Eyes). In addition, the FBI has no place, operating as it is as a fish out of water, in the brutal, cut-throat overseas world of jihad.

About 20 tapes feature the “distinctive monotone” of Bin Laden, according to Miller. Excerpts from the tapes will appear in the October issue of the journal Language and Communication, (Cf. The Abstract below).

The tapes often revealed news to family members about the deaths of their sons. According to Miller, Bin Laden's poems were calculating: “He crafts his words to excite the urban dissatisfied youth, offering them escape from their elders and villages. Instead, many just die in terrible ways.”

Miller plans to write a book about Bin Laden’s poetry while the tapes will be preserved at Yale University where they will be available to scholars.

Abstract

This article explores area studies contributions to sociolinguistics by examining Sunni reformers’ use of the Arabic term al-qācida, or a “pragmatic base.” Material is drawn from an audiocassette collection formerly owned by Usāma Bin Lādı¯n. Divergent approaches to the qācida suggest that the term functions a base for many forms of spatial, temporal, social, and ethical orientation. Much of the critical leverage of the concept stems from speakers’ sense of Arabic as a template of ethical attunement that cues language users to founding Muslim lifeways and leaders in and beyond the Arabian Peninsula. A review of Western Arabic sociolinguistics shows how scholars have hampered and also enhanced an understanding of the pragmatic resourcefulness of Arabic. Special attention is given to the ways area studies can help situate Arabic as a signifying practice that accommodates diverse textual, historical, and territorial claims.

U.S. Army to Take Care of Business in Pakistan

In what is one of the most important recent developments in the Pakistani versus the U.S. standoff it has been announced that U.S. army trainers are set to arrive in Pakistan shortly. There had been a plan to send dozens of U.S. military advisers to Pakistan to train the Pakistan Army in counter-insurgency but this has received new force recently. In a matter of weeks a new agreement has centered on a training base to be located in Pakistan. Joint Chiefs Chairman Michael Mullen as stated that the U.S. and Pakistan had cleared the remaining obstacles to the arrival of the advisers.

This should be a good move since Pakistan has dragged its feet while claiming they are allied with us in the war on terror. With the massive amounts of support and aid the U.S. has squandered on the Pakistanis, they are no closer to shutting down the Taliban and other AQAM than before. The Pakistanis have been adept at manipulating American officials and have been eager to receive weaponry and equipment that look as if best suited to oppose its regional rival India.

Since Pakistan has accused the U.S. of violating Pakistani sovereignty, as if Pakistan had sovereignty throughout its entire nation, which it doesn't; and, I believe Pakistan fails as a supposed ally in the war on terror, the building of a U.S. training facility, on Pakistani soil and with their permission, is a solid move against the Taliban and AQAM. The U.S. can take care of business.

Whoever heard such an outrageous comment from a supposed ally as Pakistani officials issued a warning that they might open fire on Coalition troops crossing into Pakistani territory?

Either Pakistan is with us or they are against us. And, if they do not prosecute the war on terror with zeal, then, we will. We can not afford to have our troops subject to attack while the insurgents simply scurry back across the lawless Pakistani regions (FATA).

Briton's Youngest Terrorist Convicted

Graphic source: Reuters

The youngest Briton, Hammaad Munshi, 18, ever to be convicted of a terrorism offense was jailed for two years for his worldwide plot to target non-Muslims. His co-accused Aabid Hussain Khan recruited Munshi when he was 15 and at just 16 Munshi was arrested in Dewsbury, northern England for his support of AQ. Khan will serve a 12 year term while their cell-mate Sultain Muhammad was sentenced to a 10-year term. Munshi was found guilty of being part of a cell that spread extremist propaganda and provided practical guides on how to make poisons and suicide vests. The Internet was his tool as he circulated material including technical documents on how to make napalm and homemade explosives, and discussed how to smuggle a sword through airport security. He was sentenced to two years in a young offenders' institution. Prosecutors said Munshi was part of a cell that provided information on terrorist techniques, training, weapons and explosives.

U.S. Special Operations Target Pakistani Camps

U.S. Special Ops have increased attacks against insurgents in Pakistan's chaotic tribal regions as intelligence officials seek to stem an attack inside the United States. AQ has proved to be remarkably resilient but the next expected attack seems involved training in the tribal camps. As the U.S. has raided Pakistani areas, the attempt is intended to root out the training camps and safe houses. The targets are AQ's Taliban allies, in particular the long-standing Haqqani family in North Waziristan and the Taliban forces of Mullah Nazir in South Waziristan. The insurgents appear to be actively recruiting Western looking operatives. These operatives seem to be training somewhere in the Northwest Frontier Province at the 157 training camps and more than 400 support locations dispersed throughout the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province.

At Least One American Killed in Yemeni Embassy Attack

Graphic source: CNN

Susan Ali Elbaneh, a U.S. citizen, was killed in the terrorist attack in Yemen, site of the attack on the U.S.S. Cole. She was 19 and had been married for just two months. She died alongside her husband. Ironically, and just a coincidence that she was killed in the attack, Elbaneh is a relative of Yemeni-American Jaber Elbaneh who is on the FBI's most wanted list. Yemen has not cooperated in extraditing Jaber. Elbaneh had accompanied her sister in law who had an appointment with the embassy. During the attack, Ms. Elbaneh's nephew, aged three, may also be among the casualties.

The U.S. had only recently decided to return to the Embassay after having pulling out citing security concerns.

The highly coordinated and complex attack is usually a hallmark of AQ attacks but another group, the Yemeni Islamic Jihad, has claimed responsibility. How the group and AQ are related is unclear. Leading figures include Qasim al Raymi and Nasser al Wahayshi, two of the 23 AQ insurgents who escaped prison in February 2006. Hamza al Quaity, the former leader of Yemeni Islamic Jihad, also escaped during the same prison break and later formed Yemeni Islamic Jihad. All three have strong ties to al Qaeda.

All told, 16 people were killed in the attack, which did not involve U.S. service personnel. In addition, the actions of the Yemeni security forces apparently thwarted the attack and bore the brunt of the casuality toll.

AQ Network Problems

Well, after a couple of days in cyberspace, and no one really taking credit, whoever took down AQ: the world thanks you. After hearing so many Islamo-apologists proclaim just how media savvy AQ is; they are not. Al-Qaida's As-Sahab Media Foundation suffered a number of technical problems that delayed the publication of AQ's 9/11 anniversary video. A crippling network outage thwarted AQ plans to distribute their drivel. One of the AQ discussion forums, "Al-Ekhlaas," was thankfully knocked off line before this 9/11. Thereafter, a series of domains used by yet another competing extremist forum "Al-Hesbah," blacked out. "Ekhlaas" has been offline, and there has been no word from As-Sahab. AQ wants to play the game but they lost so thanks whoever you are. AQ's tech needs some work. Finally, As-Sahab has breathed new life today and distributed packaged copies of the video "Results of 7 Years of the Crusades," or at least it has attempted the distribution. Now, they have caused their own problems. Human error is at fault when the wrong password for the packaged video--meaning that users can download but not actually view the film, was announced. All the site needs to state is the correct password but our poor insurgents are still waiting for re-publication. As-Sahab is not as slick and professional as many would like to claim, and really, does the world need more hate and recruitment for insurgents?

The mustard comes off the hot dog.

EU May Act to End Horn Piracy

In what I believe to be a positive development, the European Union, with 27 member nations, plans a mission to tackle the increasing problem with piracy off Somalia. The EU plans to send a possible naval mission to the Horn of Africa. The U.S. has argued, alone and with its own forces, that lawlessness should end in the region but I do not think the U.S. should go it alone. The shipping lanes directly impact the EU and they should be solving their own problems.

There have been at least fifty attacks since January in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. The International Maritime Bureau, a private non-profit organisation that tracks such data, says seizures of ships and sailors are running at their highest level since 1991, when it first started to collect piracy data.

If the EU does decide to act, their justification is within the framework of United Nations Security Council resolution 1816, which the members unanimously adopted in June. The potential action is also in line with their recent higher-profile role in efforts to promote security in Africa, having deployed a 3,700-strong peacekeeping force in eastern Chad this year.

The next more positive development, although there are no signs of anything of the sort happening now, is that India and possibly China would send additional personnel.

Hackers Shut AQ Up

As-Sahab, Al Qaeda’s media unit, was not able to post a videotape on 9/11. Western intelligence suspects two hackers who have targeted Islamicist sites before were responsible: Aaron Weisburd from Internet Haganah and Rusty Shackleford from the web group My Pet Jawa.

In 2004, a hacker group called TeAmZ USA had knocked out the websites of Abu Musal al-Zarqawi, late head of the Al Qaeda in Iraq, for showing tapes of Westerners being beheaded. The hackers left the image of a gun-toting penguin on the website.

Sheikh Pronounces Islamic Law: Mickey Mouse Must Die

Sheikh Muhammad Munajid, a cleric and a former diplomat at the Saudi embassy in Washington DC, stated that Mickey Mouse is "one of Satan's soldiers" and makes everything it touches impure. Under Sharia, both household mice and their cartoon counterparts must be killed. Munajid provided Islam's teaching on mice during a religious affairs programme broadcast on al-Majd TV, an Arab television network. According to a translation prepared by the Middle East Media Research Institute, an American press monitoring service, he said: "The mouse is one of Satan's soldiers and is steered by him." The Islamic expert declared that "according to Islamic law, Mickey Mouse should be killed in all cases." Last week his target was the Beijing Olympics which was described as the "bikini Olympics", claiming that nothing made Satan happier than seeing females athletes dressed in skimpy outfits.

My blog may be hard to take at times, but I assure you, I did not make this story up.

Checkpoint-Friendly Bags for Airport Security

Checkpoint-friendly bags allow laptops to be fully visible to security scanners. This scan was taken by Aerovation, which went to the distributor of the X-ray equipment used by TSA and rented its lab. Graphic source: Aerovation

While traveling this summer I noticed all the difficulties people had with their laptops, especially at one of the most secure airports I traveled through: Phoenix. The issue arises once people are required to remove their laptops from their protective cases. Laptops get dropped, damaged, forgotten and even stolen outright. One study by Dell estimated that about 12,000 laptops are lost in U.S. airports every week. All you need is for yours to be one of the numbers and its costly.

Presently, the TSA has recognized the importance of the laptop issue and on the market now are five criteria: a designated laptop-only section; a laptop-only section that completely unfolds to lay flat on the X-ray conveyor belt; no metal snaps, zippers or buckles inside, underneath or on top of the laptop-only section; no pockets on the inside or outside of the laptop-only section; and, nothing packed in the laptop-only section other than the computer itself.

There are eight full-featured TSA-approved cases, available now or soon, with pockets and compartments that hold everything from your power adapter and accessories to a change of clothes: Aerovation Checkpoint Friendly Laptop Bag, CODi Phantom CT3, Mobile Edge ScanFast Backpack, Pathfinder Wheeled Checkpoint Friendly CompuBrief, Skooba Design Checkthrough, Solo CheckFast Laptop Clamshell, Targus Zip-Thru 15.4" Corporate Traveler Laptop Case, and the Tom Bihn Checkpoint Flyer Briefcase.

Lieberman Fighting YouTube, Again

I have to hand it to one of the few politicians to be persistent. Even if I disagree with censorship, which I do by nature, and I think that the response to stupidity is a strong counter, I admire Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) in his battle with YouTube. Lieberman, chairman of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, has asked the service to remove video content produced by terrorist organizations that showed assassinations, the deaths of U.S. soldiers and civilians, weapons training and other objectionable material. Lieberman said the content intends to "encourage violence against the West."

The solution seems to be working towards a solution as YouTube revises its community standards, or Terms of Service. The key line is the note about "inciting others to commit violent acts or to violate the terms of use are taken very seriously."

There are countries in which free speech to incite others to violence is not protected speech. In Canada for example, freedom of speech is generally protected under Section 2 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The Criminal Code of Canada, however, limits these freedoms and provides for several forms of punishable hate speech. The form of punishable hate speech considered to encompass fighting words is identified in Section 319. Free speech has its limitations when it is an incitement to violence against others.

Lieberman's point is along these lines. He stated: "YouTube was being used by Islamist terrorist organizations to recruit and train followers via the Internet and to incite terrorist attacks around the world, including right here in the United States, and Google should be commended for recognizing that." He added: "I expect these stronger community guidelines to decrease the number of videos on YouTube produced by al-Qaeda and affiliated Islamist terrorist organizations."

Pakistan Threatens Britain with Reprisal Violence

Pakistan’s high commissioner to the UK, Wajid Shamsul Hasan, threatened Britain. The recent actions by the U.S. bombings, intending to eliminate Taliban and AQAM elements, had inadvertently killed civilians. According to Hasan, this makes the streets of London fair game for reprisals. He stated: “There are 1m Pakistanis in the diaspora here and resentment is mounting. I’m being flooded by text messages from community leaders saying we must organise our anger."

Pakistan’s newly elected president, Asif Ali Zardari, arrives in Britain today. He will hold talks with Gordon Brown and David Miliband, the foreign secretary. He will appeal to them to exert their influence to halt the unauthorised bombings.

Taliban Kills Children

The world will not be outraged but an explosion killed six children in Afghanistan, 12 were wounded, some of them critically. The roadside bomb was apparently planted by Taliban rebels to target Afghan and Coalition troops. The children from Sardar village started playing with explosives and they went off. If the Coalition targets the Taliban and civilians are killed as a result, expect an outcry against the U.S.

Model Checking

One of the most frustrating things about computing is that the equipment does not work simply. I envision the day when computer use is as simple as a television. You simply plug it in, and it works, although T.V.'s are evolving to be more complicated than that. The point holds for T.V.'s `back in the day.' Along comes a work that I recently reviewed (forthcoming) which outlines current work in computing, Model Checking, that seems to be a useful area of endeavor. Working closely with programmers and computer specialists I never cease to marvel at their technical abilities, though computers themselves still seemed obtuse. However, even for non-specialists, the area of Model Checking is intriguing because computing specialists in this area may be solving some of the most frustrating aspects of computing: waste and delay. I intend to follow some of the current work in the field in the hopes that computing will be more efficient and practical.

About Time for Pakistan

Pakistan’s unwillingness, or inability to dismantle insurgent safe havens in Fata (the lawless regions of Pakistan) has finally prompted the U.S. administration to decide that "enough is enough." Pakistan must be cooperating since they have been largely mum about the new initiative although previously Pakistan disapproval was clear. The U.S. needed to take action to solve the problem of insurgents having a free rein in the region. The move followed Pakistan’s feeble attempts to forge peace deals with militants in the tribal areas. In addition, the U.S. should not be expected to conduct business as usual following heavy casualties.

McCain Lead Currently 1 Point

CNN's average of national polls shows McCain currently holds a 1-point lead over Obama at 46-45%. The average is composed of five national general election surveys: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (September 8-9), NBC/Wall Street Journal (September 6-8), American Research Group (September 6-8), Gallup (September 8-10), and Diageo/Hotline (September 8-10). It does not have a sampling error. If the polls remain at those numbers it will be an extremely close race, among the closest ever.

Al Qaeda Loss in Iraq

Graphic source: The Long War Journal

In what is probably the most fascinating set of documents yet uncovered, a number of AQ letters reveals what has become obvious in the long war community: AQ is fragmenting in Iraq. Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda's second in command, Abu Ayyub al Masri, al Qaeda in Iraq's leader, and Abu Omar al Baghdadi, the leader of al Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq exchanged letters which were intercepted by Coalition forces. The letters reveal that AQ's senior leadership has lost confidence in AQ's leadership in Iraq. Perhaps even more revealing is a graphic revealing the loss of territory by AQ between 2006 up to the present. A picture is worth a thousand words.

Most Recently Conducted Polls: McCain Even, a Victory of Sorts

Several recent presidential polls are interesting to consider. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted in Michigan among registered voters calculated Barack Obama at 45 percent, John McCain 42 percent, and Ralph Nader 6 percent. Of particular pain for McCain is that in southwestern Michigan-—which Bush won overwhelmingly four years ago-—Obama is up by 9 points. A similar poll in Missouri among registered voters showed McCain at 48 percent and Obama at 44 percent. In New Hampshire among registered voters Obama garnished 48 percent and McCain 43 percent. In Virginia among registered voters McCain took 49 percent and Obama 43 percent.

Score: Obama 2, McCain 2.

The most striking aspect of this, admittedly unusual presidential election, is that Obama has not struck the killer blow. It seems closest to the Carter defeat at the hands of Reagan, the significant difference is in their respective parties. However, a hugely unpopular incumbent President, Carter, similar to Bush, lost overwhelmingly to Reagan. Obama should be delivering the knock-out blow to McCain as a third term of Bush but this has not happened. McCain is in the running or beating Obama in the polls. As some have noted, Obama might not possess the toughness required of a President. He can not deliver.

Why I Take Middle Eastern Opinion Polls With a Grain of Salt

I know the conventional wisdom is to take the results of polls fairly seriously. On the other hand, bear in mind the off-base things that people believe. For example, Arab nations still suspect that it was U.S. in cahoots with Israel who were behind the 9/11 attacks. There is no credible evidence that such a thing actually occurred but the facts do not trouble the irrational and misguided. Nonetheless, when poll after poll shows how America's place in the world is diminished, I do not lose much sleep over it. As the cliche states it: consider the source.

Many Medieval people believed the planets revolved around the Earth but such wishful thinking did not make it so. Likewise, many Middle Easteners think there is a conspiracy against Muslims.

The San Diego Tribune reported one such statement: “Look, I don't believe what your governments and press say. It just can't be true,” stated Ahmed Issab, 26, a Syrian engineer who lives and works in the United Arab Emirates. “Why would they tell the truth? I think the U.S. organized this so that they had an excuse to invade Iraq for the oil.” A person intelligent enough to receive a decent education, a scientist no less, and an engineer to boot; yet, Mr. Issab is not discerning enough to understand that the U.S. and Israel and not involved in a devil's pact to bring down Islam? I do not buy it.

Isn't there a way to end the double standard against Americans? I mean, we are often described as the ugly Americans because we do not understand the rest of the world; on the other hand, any nonsense that the media reports on from the Middle East is treated with the utmost respect. Why can't someone simply ask for evidence? What evidence is there that a grand conspiracy exists between these two nations? At least that would be the scientific way to approach a controversial issue.

The same Times article noted: "Americans might better understand the region, experts here said, if they simply listen to what people are saying – and try to understand why – rather than taking offense." The point they make is that Americans need to understand, yet, any half-baked notion arising from the Middle East is accepted uncritically. The fact that the foreign policy of the U.S. and Israel coincides is evidence of nothing more than what it is: two nations view their self-interest, for a time, similarly. These things change, they have before and they will again.

Offensive prejudice, on the part of Middle Easteners, is accepted uncritically and embraced as an authentic voice of the people. This is wrong-headed. The only way America was able to stare down and defeat prejudice, such as lynching, was through education, a more active Justice Department, and federal intervention. It helps no one not to ask Middle Easterners to learn more accurate information about the U.S.

British Muslims Convicted of World's Biggest Terrorist Atrocity Planning

Abdulla Ahmed Ali, 27, Assad Sarwar, 28, and Tanvir Hussain, 27, three British Muslims were found guilty of conspiracy to murder. The world's biggest terrorist atrocity plot is the one responsible for the banning of liquids of airline flights up to the present. An unknown AQ associate, planned to conceal explosives within 500ml Oasis or Lucozade bottles; thereafter, the al-Qaeda cell members in London planned to detonate a series of liquid-based bombs disguised as soft drinks. The suicide bombers intended to blow up several transatlantic airliners bound for America in a simultaneous attack which would have caused an even greater loss of life than 9/11. Other possible targets included the skyscrapers of Canary Wharf, nuclear power stations, and oil terminals.

The jury was unable to reach verdicts on conspiracy to murder charges relating to four other defendants: Ibrahim Savant, Arafat Khan, Waheed Zaman and Umar Islam; they now face a retrial.

An eighth man, Mohammed Gulzar, was found not guilty on all counts, including conspiracy to murder.

Police said the plot was drawn up in Pakistan with detailed instructions passed to Ali during frequent trips to its lawless border with Afghanistan. In a suicide video Ali warned the British public to expect "floods of martyr operations" that would leave body parts scattered in the streets.

Zawahiri Admits Defeat in Iraq

Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al-Qaeda's deputy leader, stated in his latest missive that Iran was "collaborating" with the US in its occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq. The video entitled "Assessment of Seven Years of Crusades," was produced by AQ's media arm, Al-Sahab. The 90-minute video also attacks Lebanese, Pakistani and Afghan leaders. The interesting aspect of the message is that it is an admission of AQAM's failure in Iraq. Of course Iran and the U.S. did not collaborate but by attacking fellow insurgents, Zawahiri is admitting defeat in Iraq, something that the U.S. surge handled by early this year spring and at the same time Zawahiri announced was critical to AQ's aims. The recruitment of young people and children that Zawahiri announced at the time did not come to pass.

Zawahiri exacerbates already troublesome relationships with Iraqi Shia clerics and the Lebanese Shia militant group, Hezbollah. He stated: "Hezbollah has not obtained any victory in Lebanon against Israel." Otherwise, the tape is just more of the same with the added note regarding the importance of Algeria. The tape also unwittingly points to increasing tensions within worldwide insurgent movements.

Infrastructure Issues: Not to Mention Attacks

One of the biggest concerns with our aging infrastructure is that the demands placed on the systems are too great. Coupled with possible insurgent attacks, Americans are really susceptible to increasing issues with transportation. The problem was illustrated graphically with the recent Federal Aviation Administration's traffic management computer system issue which caused flight delays at U.S. airports.

The delays were largely centered around airports in the northeastern U.S. which is among our oldest and most prone systems.

CNN.com reported that all major U.S. airports were affected by the computer problem at a facility near Atlanta. Problems processing data in Atlanta meant that flight-plan information had to be routed through another facility in Salt Lake City.

Now, if you were seeking to create havoc on American airlines, where would you strike?

Those two sites handle all flight plans for commercial and general flights in the U.S.

August Order of Battle in Iraq

Graphic source: The Long War Journal

The August Order of Battle in Iraq demonstrates progress in increasing responsibilities for native Iraqi elements as the U.S. plans to draw down its troops.

Pakistan Makes a Step Towards Democracy: Zardari

Nearly a year after assassins killed Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, her widower, Asif Ali Zardari, won the country's presidential election and hailed his triumph as a victory for democracy. "I feel democracy has been vindicated," Zardari told CNN. Zardari had been the front-runner in the race to replace former President Pervez Musharraf, who was forced to resign last month. The pro-American Zardari will rule a nuclear power threatened by the Islamic Taliban militants and economic turmoil. Conditions are extremely difficult currently but if Zardari can support the U.S. efforts to curtail Islamism the world will be a better place. The U.S. can possibly access the areas where the central Pakistani government is too weak to control.

Pakistan Cuts its Own Throat

Supposedly our ally, Pakistan, has reportedly blocked a major fuel supply route for Western forces in Afghanistan in response to a raid by US forces in northwest Pakistan earlier this week. Al-Qaeda and pro-Taliban fighters live in sanctuaries in northwest Pakistan's ethnic Pashtun tribal areas, where they organise attacks in Afghanistan. The U.S. can not afford to sit idly by while its troops are being attacked. And, in these lawless regions, the central Pakistani government is hardly in control of the regions, thus, Pakistan does not enjoy sovereignty in the region. The U.S. has every right to protect its troops any way it can.

Afghan Support to Increase, Eventually

With the developing violence and the increasing numbers of foreign insurgents, some of whom are fleeing the losing AQAM campaigns in Iraq, which is not a bad thing, are pouring into Afghanistan, the U.S. will launch a "very aggressive" winter campaign according to Army Maj. Gen. Jeffrey J. Schloesser, commander of the 101st Airborne Division task force in eastern Afghanistan. The unprecedented winter offensive, and the first major action since 2002, will be coupled with a development drive that will provide some $479 million to help employ young Afghan males on local development projects. Due to a lack of troops, the U.S. is pressed to hold territory and protect the people against the Taliban and other foreign invaders. American military commanders in Afghanistan have been pleading for more troops for more than a year. At least 10,000 more troops, about two brigade combat teams, are needed in Afghanistan, U.S. commanders have stated. About 33,000 U.S. troops are fighting in Afghanistan, including 19,000 under Schloesser's command and 14,000 assigned to the NATO command. Both Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, indicated that it is unlikely that additional troops will be deployed to Afghanistan until troop reductions are made in Iraq next spring. The unusual winter campaigns have been provoked by U.S. intelligence reports which indicate that many of the 7,000 to 11,000 insurgents in Afghanistan are planning to remain there over the winter.

Celebrating Jihad

On 14 August 2008 the Islamist group Jamatud Dawa - the new name of the banned militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, led by Professor Hafiz Muhammad Saeed - held a conference in Lahore, billed as the "Defend Pakistan Conference."

At the opening of the conference, a duo, Hafiz Abdul Wadud Hasan and Hafiz Abdur Rauf, sang the following song, described by the organizers as the "jihadi tarana (anthem)."

The song is available at the Jamatud Dawa website.

"Jihad will continue till the Day of Judgement; jihad will never stop.

(Jihad jari rahega ta qayamat
Jihad hargiz naheen rukega)

It has forced oppressor's head to bow; it will end oppression and torture.

(Is se zalim ka sar jhuka hai
Is se zulm-o-sitam mitega)

Jihad is the order of Allah; jihad is the path of the Prophet.

(Jihad farman hai Khuda ka
Jihad rasta hai Mustafa ka)

Jihad is the assurance of loyalty; every true Muslim will be loyal.

(Jihad paiman hai wafa ka
Her ek momin wafa karega)

Jihad is mentioned in the Koran; jihad is the eternity of faith.

(Jihad Qur'an mein likha hai
Jihad Eiman ki baqaa hai)

This is the Will [of God], this is [His] happiness; no one can change it.

(Yahi masheeat, yahi raza hai
Jise na koi badal saekga)

Only Jihad has always cut the head of evil from the earth

(Zameen se fitno ka sar hamesha
Jihad hi se qalam huwa hai)

If jihad has the power in it; mischief will have no substance.

(Rahega dam kham jihad mein to
Fasad mein dam naheen rahega)

Jihad alone gives voice; respect comes to the helpless.

(Jihad hi se zaban milti
Hai aan milti hai bekason ko)

Jihad will make the gods of falsehood naked.

(Jihad jhooti khudaion ko
Ulat kar be abroo karega)

Avoidance of jihad has given birth to subjugation.

(Jihad se ijtniab hi ne
Ghulamion ko janam diya hai)

Enemies of Jihad will be dishonoured; they will sink into an unending abyss.

(Jihad dushman zaleel hoker
Athaah pasti mein ja girega)

Jihad is the protection of the Ummah; jihad is the symbol of self-respect.

(Jihad millat ki pasbani
Jihad ghairat ki hai nishani)

Jihad is a Revealed gift; only the lucky ones will get it.

(Jihad tuhfa hai aasmani
Naseeb walon ko hi milega)

Jihad destroys terror; jihad brings good news.

(Jihad dehshat mitane walaa
Jihad muzde sunane walaa)

Jihad teaches how to live; only those will live who learn to die.

(Jihad jeena sikhane walaa
Jo marna seekhega wo jiyegaa)

Jihad is the state of ecstasy; jihad is the army of the brave.

(Jihad alam hai bekhudi ka
Jihad Lashkar bahaduri ka)

Jihad is the flag of truth; Never has it bowed, nor will it bow.

(Jihad parcham hai rasti ka
Kabhi jhuka, na kabhi jhukega)

Jihad is the kingdom of faith; jihad is the depth of emotions.

(Jihad eiman ki hai shahi
Jihad jazbon ki hai bepanahi)

Jihad is the destruction of heretics; those who fight against it will die.

(Jihad alhad ki tabahi
Ise mitayega jo mitega)

Jihad is to stand for truth; not go back once you have taken the step.

(Jihad Afazan haq per hai datna
Qadam barhaker ne peechhe hanta)

Jihad is the Eagle's attack; falsehood will be victim.

(Jihad shaheen ka jhapatna
Shikar batil bana rahega)"

Cf. http://memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD204208

IED Found Near the Capitol

Years ago the famous American novelist Sinclair Lewis wrote a well-known novel about it can't happen here. This type of thinking should be dispelled as a man was arrested near the Capitol when an IED, a rifle, and ammunition was allegedly found in his Jeep. The man stopped to ask police for directions near the Capitol building at about 11 a.m. EDT Friday, at the intersection of 2nd and Independence Avenue Southeast. The alert officer responding noticed a rifle case on the car seat and inspected the jeep and discovered the contraband. Library of Congress employees near where the jeep was stopped were evacuated as a precaution, and several roads are closed while police continue their investigation. The IED is on its way to the FBI facility in Quantico, Va., for analysis. Kudos to the alert officer protecting Washington.

Malaysia Works to Make Sea Lanes Safer

Malaysia is demonstrating a forthright policy by deploying its navy to Somalia. I believe that many nations should be more involved in security issues, especially those that occur within their regional domain and Malaysia has done just that. Malaysia is sending three navy ships to the coast of Somalia to protect merchant vessels from piracy. The ships will begin patrolling in the Gulf of Aden in the next few days. The seas off Somalia, close to busy shipping routes and therefore of direct interest to Malaysia, have some of the highest rates of piracy in the world. The country has been without a functioning central government for 17 years and has suffered from continual civil strife. If only China and India would get more involved, and support Malaysia, the piracy issue could very well be eliminated.

McCain Down and Out?

It would be extremely difficult to count out John McCain, despite the media's penchent for burying him prematurely, after watching his acceptance speech at the Republican Convention. He was conciliatory, humble, if feisty in his closing arguments which asked people to fight with him for America. He is a guy who you really can't consider out of the running when he quite obviously is just the guy who he says he is. While he does not have Obama's smoothness in the prepared speech, there really is no effective counter once he relates his narrative about having both arms broken and depending on two fellow prisoners of war to feed him. How do you counter a story like that? He has a powerful narrative of service and dedication to country. He is not out of the running just yet.

Chrome Makes Impressive Debut

The widely bally-hooed Google Inc.'s new Chrome browser grabbed 1% of the browser market in its first day out in public. U.S.-based tracking company Net Applications Inc., and Irish vendor StatCounter, placed Chrome's total market share at around 1%, less than 24 hours after the browser's launch, passing rivals such as Opera and Netscape in the process.

Palin Introduces Herself to America

Palin accomplished major goals in her speech at the Republican Convention. She came across as a fighter, praised her party's nominee, attacked her opponent, actually, an indictment of Obama's lack of achievement, and spoke dynamically as a down-to-earth woman and mother. She should help McCain in crucial middle America states and is an asset. The surprise choice of Palin will help McCain appeal to women and broaden the appeal of the Republican party. It was a good choice. She has only had less than a week to prepare which is revealing. She is not a studied and rehearsed vice-presidential nominee. We are viewing the real deal.

Google Browses

Graphic source: Google

Google finally launched its own Web browser which ends years of speculation that the search company had designs on the browser market. The new browser, Chrome, was released and thus the company now competes against Microsoft, Mozilla, Opera, and Apple, all of which distribute browsers of their own. Chrome, still in beta, is only available in a version that runs under Windows XP or Windows Vista although others are fast at work expanding the shine of Chrome.

Anbar Now in Iraqi Hands

Indicative of the increasing well-being of the U.S. effort in Iraq is that the United States and the Multi-National Force-Iraq is transferring security in Anbar Province over to Iraqi responsibility. Anbar is the eleventh province to be transferred to Iraqi security responsibility since the first province transferred to Government of Iraqi security control in July 2006. The transfer of security responsibility in Anbar is significant because it is geographically the largest province in Iraq and borders three countries.

Upcoming Attractions

Now back online you can look forward to upcoming attractions: Joe Biden for President, updates on glaciers in Alaska, Montana, and global warming, review of Cirque du Soleil, the Beatles "LOVE," Las Vegas Show, and many other new features. Stay tuned.

Somali Man Found Dead with Cyanide

The Somali Justice Advocacy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota is back in the news again. A year ago, on 24 August 2007, the St. Paul police were shocked as a security tape documented that ten witnesses ignored a woman's cries for help while she was beaten and sexually assaulted for nearly 90 minutes by Somali immigrant Rage (note a joke, that is his real name) Ibrahimman. The Advocacy Center defended the actions of the alleged perpetrator. The attack lasted over an hour while the witnesses did nothing. The surveillance video clearly showed men and women looking out their apartment doors or starting to walk down the hallway before retreating as the woman was assaulted according to police spokesman Tom Walsh.

Nonetheless, Omar Jamal, the executive director of the Somali Center defended Ibrahim. Ibrahim was charged with several counts of first-degree criminal sexual conduct; in fact, he was sentenced in the rape on 19 July 2008 and will spend the next 12 years in prison.

Now the Somali group is at it again and they are protesting that no one should conclude that deadly Denver cyanide is linked to terrorism. Saleman Abdirahman Dirie, 29, of Ottawa was found dead Monday, and police say a powder found in his room was cyanide. The cause of death hasn't been established but so far the police do not suspect foul play and the FBI says there's no apparent connection to terrorism. Still, no one has established why Dirie had cyanide either.

Libya In From the Cold: At What Cost?

Libya and the U.S. signed a compensation deal for American victims of Libyan attacks and U.S. reprisals, paving the way for full normalisation of ties between the two countries. The deal will see compensation paid for U.S. victims of Libyan attacks in the 1980s. In particular, the U.S. wants Libya to fully compensate families of the victims of the 1988 bombing of a Pan Am flight over Lockerbie, Scotland, that killed 270 people, and a Berlin disco bombing that killed two Americans. In addition, under this agreement each country's citizens can receive fair compensation for past incidents since the U.S. bombed Libya in retaliation for terrorist attacks. The U.S. retaliated against Libya with several U.S. airstrikes on Tripoli and Benghazi on April 16, 1986, in which 41 people were killed, including an adopted daughter of Kadhafi. Since 2006 the U.S. normalised relations between the two countries by dropping Libya from a State Department list of state sponsors of terrorism and raising diplomatic relations to the level of ambassadors. Both houses of Congress passed a bill that grants Libya immunity from lawsuits once compensation has been paid through the fund.

My question here is what do the victims of Libyan terrorism have to say on the issue? I'm not finding any public comment by them. I wonder if they are being fully represented and if they are satisfied with compensation for their loved ones now that Congress has accepted the deal.

In addition, is there a slippery slope at work here? Will AQAM (al-Qaeda and Allied Movements) someday seek relief in American courts for compensation?

The compensation payments must be weighed against the relative benefit of having Libya return to the civilized community of nations as Libya sheds its past as a rogue state.

Sobering Assessment of Counter-Terrorism

On August 12, 2008, U.S. national intelligence officer (NIO) for transnational threats Ted Gistaro addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Gistaro was appointed NIO in November 2006 after nearly two decades of service with the Central Intelligence Agency. He provided a sobering assessment of counter-terrorism efforts. The U.S. has made progress in security measures which have helped disrupt known plots against us since 9/11. On the other hand, al-Qaeda is the most serious terrorist threat to the United States, and we remain in the heightened threat environment noted in the July 2007 National Intelligence Estimate.

Cyberwarfare is Here to Stay: Georgia

The defacement of Georgia President’s official web site. Graphic source: ZDNet

In the wake of the recent cyberwar, the pattern of attack by hacktivists or a hacker militia, was identified in the blogosphere:

distribute a static list of targets, eliminate centralized coordination of the attack; engaging the average internet users, empower them with DoS [Denial of Service] tools; distribute lists of remotely SQL injectable Georgian sites; abuse public lists of email addresses of Georgian politicians for spamming and targeted attacks; and, destroy the adversary’s ability to communicate using the usual channels.

Dancho Danchev, the blogger noted above, is an independent security consultant and cyber threats analyst. What are we to make of understanding cyberwarfare? The attacks will be de-centralized, and, although controlled, will not have a central command and control center. Cyberwarfare will more quickly escalate, as opposed to other forms of attack, in that the average non-activist can be drawn into the mix quickly. This escalated attack is similar to the effect of insurgents who hide amongst a civilian population, and who, to varying degrees, are concealing or cooperating with the insurgents. The publicly available Georgian government sites were attacked since the information is easily accessed. The ordinary media outlets of government services, which naturally are employed to calm the population and to broadcast messages of reassurance and reliable information, are cut off. In the case of the government of Georgia, Blogger was employed and alternate non-Georgian sites had to be found to broadcast government information.

Cyberwarfare is an added dimension of 21st Century war and is here to stay. The fact that Georgian government sites were so easily dismantled is a warning for other countries to be preparing now.

How American is Obama?

The recent revelation, and reservations expressed in a policy memo by Hillary Clinton's one-time chief strategist Mark Penn, challenging Barack Obama's "American roots," are instructive. In a March 2007 memo Penn noted: "all of these articles about his boyhood in Indonesia and his life in Hawaii are geared toward showing his background is diverse, multicultural and putting that in a new light. Save it for 2050," according to Atlantic magazine writer Joshua Green who broke the story. Penn continued: "It also exposes a very strong weakness for him -- his roots to basic American values and culture are at best limited. I cannot imagine America electing a president during a time of war who is not at his center fundamentally American in his thinking and in his values."

As expressed on this blog, I do wonder about an Indonesian madrassa education and being raised in an areligious Muslim household. Americans advocate diversity, which is the positive side of Obama, but at what cost? Are American values, while we are engaged in two horrific conflicts in very different parts of the world, to be completely set aside?

Now I'm wondering how many Clinton supporters are pondering the same thing.

Let's Get Accustomed to Cyber War

As documented by The Shadowserver Foundation, while Russian troops advanced into Georgia they were preceded by attacks on Georgian government sites. I think the point is that 21st Century warfare will routinely include the Cypersphere.

Russia Imitates the Cold War

Graphic source: BBC

As Russian troops invade Georgia the French and the Germans, who import a great deal of their energy supplies from Russia, look the other way. Only the U.S., in the person of George Bush, has publicly condemned the Russian parallel to their 21st Century re-enactment of 20th Century imperialism. Bush used some of the strongest language against Russia since the end of the Cold War stating that this is a: "dramatic and brutal escalation".

I do not know which is more despicable, the Russian agression or the French and German cowardice in the face of naked agression. Russia, in shades of Hungary in an earlier invastion in 1956, or Czechoslovakia in 1968, is doing what appalled the world before: invading smaller, neighboring countries.

The Russians are entering Georgia by using the breakaway region of Abkhazia as an excuse since this appears to be a broadening of the conflict over South Ossetia.

Fighting erupted last Thursday when Georgia sent its army to regain control of South Ossetia which, like Abkhazia, has had de facto independence since the early 1990s, the Russians appeared to back these moves previously.

The Russians though are clearly the aggressors, an EU-brokered peace agreement has already been signed by Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

Not all countries, such as France and Germany, have been silent but they have issued statements: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland issued a joint statement saying that as "once-captive nations of Eastern Europe" they share a "deep concern" about Russia's actions towards Georgia.

Presidential candidate McCain also weighed in on the crisis, supporting his earlier statements on the conflict from months ago; Obama remains on the golf course vacationing in Hawaii.

Note on Ralph Peters, New Glory: Expanding America's Global Supremacy

Although much of what Ralph Peters states, as a retired Lieutenant Colonel and intelligence officer, makes sense, his argument is lost by a lack of clarity and editing. His prose reads more like commands, as a person accustomed to lead, rather than reasoned, thoughtful argumentation.

He writes for example that there is good thinking and sound analysis going on in think tanks (p. 65) but then he fails to quote any of the cited writers nor does he refer to them again. The reader is left to ponder what could be of value in the think tanks if Peters does not bother to quote them? In fact, he does not even bother to include a bibliography so we don't really know to what or to whom his ideas are related. He clearly takes issue with academics, leftists, and other straw men. But since he does not interact with either his supporters, or his critics, any argument he favors is undercut with his stentorian pronouncements.

He makes much of his pronouncements favoring women's rights and issues, as he does of human rights generally which is a positive aspect of the book; however, he does not quote any academic nor does he makes use of any leftist arguments of those who might agree with him. The effect is simply to weaken an otherwise sound argument. He unnecessarily alienates those whom he might convince or realize the valuable insights he might have. Academe has an important role to play in that regardless of one's ideological commitment an author's arguments are strengthened with interaction with others.

The failing to realistically wrestle with the issues leaves him flailing when addressing critical geopolitical areas and issues. He barely discusses Afghanistan, Iran, or Pakistan for example although they are central to his thesis that the U.S. should expand its global supremacy. In a world which includes Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, intractable areas of the world, we are left to ponder how Peters proposes that the U.S. should proceed.

The work appears to be cobbled together from disparate ideas and a clear conservative agenda which necessitates including everything including the kitchen sink. He races through world geopolitical issues, human rights, women's rights, the backwardness of Islam, a conservative agenda, the doctrines of the various military service branches, and their reforms. Its all too much, too quickly, and too superficially presented. The effect of his prose in fact, is a diatribe, and few parts of the world or critical issues are discussed in any meaningful or sufficiently weighty manner even if the reader would tend to agree with him in the abstract.

A major concern is the military role throughout the Middle East, something that would be of interest to the general reader appreciating his military and intelligence background. Yet, since he just brushes by areas of major concern such as Afghanistan and Iran, his insights fail to convince. If an intelligence officer does not appreciate the significance of these regions, he is not believable as he discusses other, lesser critical areas of concern.

This is not to say the book does not have a contribution to make although along these lines Thomas P.M. Barnett's The Pentagon's New Map, is more convincing. Peters' has his prescriptions and recommendations, but similar to Barnett in his lesser work, Blueprint for Action, both fail to convince. The average American seeks guidance in security matters from our gatekeepers but neither Peters nor Barnett are really helpful. In Peters' case, its almost as if we are left with the same military history of the past. We don't really know what to do, yet, once engaged and fighting, our military performs magnificently. The world has never seen better soldiers which is an American strength and officers such as Peters serve this country well.

Islamofascist Hiding in Plain Sight

Graphic source: FBI

Shouldn't something about the Aafia Siddiqui (Arabic: عافية صديقي‎) case dispel the lie that Islamofascists are poor, destitute Arabs who are fighting for a just cause? She is female, a mother of three children, highly educated, in elite American Universities no less, and yet, she was situated to know highly placed AQ operatives who killed Americans. Until stymied herself, it may be revealed that she intended to do the same. We will have to wait until details emerge in court if and when she is convicted.

That she was highly acclaimed is not in dispute. She was awarded the Carroll L. Wilson Award for her research proposal, "Islamization in Pakistan and its Effects on Women." As a junior, Siddiqui received a $1,200 fellowship through MIT's LINKS program to help clean up Cambridge elementary school playgrounds. She graduated from MIT in 1995. Subsequently she studied neuroscience at Brandeis University receiving the Ph.D. degree in 2001 for her dissertation, entitled "Separating the Components of Imitation." In 1999, while living in Boston, she and her later estranged husband Khan founded the nonprofit Institute of Islamic Research and Teaching which has subsequently failed to maintain its non-profit status.

The West enabled her to gain an education that she could not have dreamed about in her own dysfunctional environment. Yet, she hoped to use this Western-given education as a lethal weapon against itself. She even elicited sympathy for her cause while a fugitive from the FBI. The lethal results of her efforts, and those of her collaborators, would eliminate the freedoms afforded her in the West.

Is this the end of the story?

The current location of Siddiqui's three children remains unknown. Because her children were born while she was a US resident they are American citizens. Stay tuned: more to come.

The Good German Review

Why didn't someone warn me about this clunker? The pace is ponderous, the story predictable, and it displays none of the charm of "Casablanca," despite the obvious allusions to a classic film. George Clooney plays a journalist but goodness, after getting beaten up repeatedly, you would think he'd start packing a gun and learn how to use it. He is in the Army after all. Cate Blanchett is totally unbelievable in a role that supposedly fired up several men with desire for her. I would have left her in Germany. Tobey Maguire is interesting in his role, since he gets to be one of the people who beats up Clooney, in fact, its an odd role for him since he looks like he should have gotten beaten up as Spiderman. This is a totally forgettable film. It is appropriate, and even more depressing in black and white, since color would not have helped this Schwarzes und Niederdrücken film anyway.

Free Security Tools

Campus Technology ran a helpful story about free security tools. If you enjoy free technology the article is helpful and informative since I've used the tools described in the article.

Note on Dodds, The Greeks and the Irrational

This is a classic. Although at points it sounds dated, written as it was in an age dominated by Freud, the central thesis holds up well and is an important corrective to the predominant view of the Greeks as rational. Doods brings into question the view that religion is rational which I believe is an even more important, and long-lasting contribution. The earliest Age of Reason is more complex according to Dodds and he quite effectively surveys the counter irrational tradition coursing through Greek myths and philosophy. The more typical view of the Greeks overemphasizes the Ionian Enlightenment while Dodds wants us to see a more complex view including Pythagoran sounds, hints of Indian religion and mysticism, reincarnation associated with the cultic mysteries, and the polytheism denatured by later monotheism. Dodds reviews later European thought of Hegel and Nietzsche and others while expounding on the richness of the Greek artistic tradition as with Euripides' 'rationalizing.' Dodds, along with Gilbert Murray, points out that the Greek 'irrational' is not all that far removed from Indian culture during the Axial Age. Greek literary tradition is more akin to Indian thought than many care to consider. We may know less about rational Enlightenment, after Kant, than many thinkers care to admit.

The text is clear with a plethora of lengthy and fascinating sidelights contained in the copious notes. Composed originally as a series of lectures the text is academic but stimulating.

Note on Creel, Richard, Religion and Doubt: Toward a Faith of Your Own

This is really an excellent short work introducing undergraduate students to the study of religion. The author does not assume students have a background in religion or if they are currently religious. The idea is to build an understanding of religion that arises from a personal point of conviction, whatever that may be. I think this is an effective approach given the fact that fewer and fewer students are religious, do not think of religion in confessional terms, and yet, have a shocking lack of understanding of religious issues.

Thug Propaganda

One of the posts by an independent journalist on a counter-terrorism blog commented on thug insurgent propaganda. I want them to remain anonymous for security reasons but I thanked them for their insights which I will quote here (corrected just for grammar, clarity, and spelling):

One rule in reading AQ (or any insurgent) propaganda;
They always excessively exaggerate their strength and success. Part of the rules of the game;
- Their objective is to appear stronger than they are in reality, that is, unbeatable. When in fact, they are fighting with the tactics of the weak because they are so very weak;
- If they have five people in a cell doing bombings, it is a battalion, 10 is a brigade, etc.;
- They will always claim more casualties than they actually killed, usually by a factor of three or more and wounded are claimed killed (3 WIA will result in 10 KIA claim);
- They love being called an insurgent or militia since such terms confer legitimacy on them. Most of what they actually do would be familiar to a Chicago Mobster or a gang member.

I think these insights are valuable in that as long as I have been monitoring the thug websites and interacting with their supporters, these exaggerations seem to hold true. Unfortunately for many Americans, and mainstream media reporters as well, they buy into thug propaganda hook, line, and sinker. I see mainstream reporters naively repeat what thugs say which is a terrible way to practice journalism. The actual information is available if people would just look a bit for accurate data. We are significantly losing the information battle of the war.

August Order of Battle

Graphic source: The Long War Journal

The Order of Battle for August has been released. There were major changes in July mostly due to new formations, re-subordinations, and reorganizations. The Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program notified the U.S. Congress of Iraqi government plans to purchase up to $10.8 billion worth of weapons, equipment, and support services. The Iraqis seem to be planning beyond the interdiction stage to the next phase of national defense. They are making progress.

Olympic Ordeal for China

Kashgar in China's Xinjiang province Graphic source: ©AFP/Graphic

Things heated up again in China as insurgents in the western area of the country attacked in anticipation of the Olympic games. Sixteen policemen were killed and another sixteen were injured in a grenade attack in the largely Muslim-populated Xinjiang region. The latest attack follows deadly bomb blasts in Kunming last month and in Shanghai in May, killing a total of five people, for which a Muslim militant group with ties to Xinjiang claimed responsibility.

Acts of Savagery and Barbarity

Graphic source: BBC

One person is stabbed repeatedly on a bus in Canada and is then beheaded; in India a stampede at a temple kills 140, the victims included 40 children. Which act is normal? Which act is religiously inspired?

The stampede happened at the Nainadevi temple in the Bilsapur district of Himachal Pradesh state, during a nine-day Hindu religious festival.

I have only questions and no answers but at least in this instance religion led to more savagery, brutality, and will not end. Most people would agree that stopping a brutal death is a good thing. Efforts will be made to make buses more secure. I am not so sure any efforts will be made to end insanity that passes for religion.

Peters Re-Drawing of the Middle East

Graphic source: Ralph Peters, "Never Quit the Fight"

Who is to say that the Middle East might be better off looking like Ralph Peters recommends? His vision is to re-draw the boundaries to reflect the traditional antagonisms inherent in the region. Let's face it, its difficult to imagine things being much worse.

The retired lieutenant colonel and former intelligence officer stirred quite a bit of controversy with his statement in the article "Constant Conflict" wherein he states:

There will be no peace. At any given moment for the rest of our lifetimes, there will be multiple conflicts in mutating forms around the globe. Violent conflict will dominate the headlines, but cultural and economic struggles will be steadier and ultimately more decisive. The de facto role of the US armed forces will be to keep the world safe for our economy and open to our cultural assault. To those ends, we will do a fair amount of killing.

Constant conflict is the wave of the future. He may indeed be correct. It is clear that the current boundaries in the Middle East are untenable.

Middle East Lukewarm or Hostile About Obama

As summarized by the BBC, the Middle Eastern reaction to Obama's visit was lukewarm at best, at worst it was skeptical of any change in American foreign policy. The pundits stuck to the issues of personal concern and do not comment on any thing else that might concern Americans or others around the world. They are apparently weighing Obama strictly on the issues of concern to Middle Easteners.

EDITORIAL IN PALESTINIAN AL-QUDS

Visits by senior leaders to this country - Israel and the Palestinian territories - are coming thick and fast, and the visit by Obama is just the latest... These repeated visits and this clear bias towards Israel's position once again emphasise the strength and influence that Israel and its allies have across the world.

AHMAD HANNUN IN PALESTINIAN AL-QUDS

Obama's visit to Israel is part of a sad farewell party for the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, who is clinging to his premiership like a limpet to a rock... As for Obama, he wants Israel to give him additional support to help him reach the White House, and for that he reads out his supportive policies to the leaders of Israel.

HAFITH AL-BARGHUTHI IN PALESTINIAN AL-HAYAT AL-JADIDAH

What would have happened if Obama put on his head a Palestinian keffiyeh [chequered scarf] in the same way that he twice put on the Jewish skullcap? This would have been balanced behaviour, but he did not do it and will never do it. The reason for this is that his 15-hour visit was put on to demonstrate his solidarity and support for Israel's policy.

WALID NUWAYHID IN BAHRAIN'S AL-WASAT

Obama's tour is not exploratory, but rather aims to send a message to American domestic opinion that he is reasserting US administrations' traditional priorities on Middle Eastern issues. And because these issues have grown in number under George Bush, Obama started his tour in Afghanistan, as it was the first victim, followed by Iraq, the second victim, to Palestine, as it is indispensable for confirming established US principles.

AHMAD ZAYBAN IN QATAR'S AL-RAYAH

With regard to substance, Obama did not move away from US policy constants in his statements during his current tour in the region, with only some differences in details and tactics.

The reaction by Middle Eastern commentators is consistent with a poll taken in the region. For example, a March-April 2008 Pew Research poll taken in 24 Arab and non-Arab countries showed that in the Arab nations of Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan, confidence in Obama ranged from 23 percent in Jordan to one in three in Lebanon. About a quarter felt similarly about McCain.

Pakistani Intelligence Supports Insurgency

The New York Times ran another outrageous story charging that Pakistani Intelligence (ISI) aided insurgents in the Kabul, India embassy bombing which killed 54 people.

The evidence consists of intercepted communications between Pakistani intelligence officers and the insurgents who carried out the attack. C.I.A. emissary, Stephen R. Kappes, the agency’s deputy director, had been ordered to Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, even before the attack. However, the intercepts were not detailed enough to warn of any specific attack. The ISI officers involved had not been renegades, indicating that their actions might have been authorized by superiors.

The actual embassy attack was probably carried out by members of a network led by Maulavi Jalaluddin Haqqani, whose alliance with Al Qaeda and its affiliates has allowed the terrorist network to rebuild in the tribal areas. Haqqani battled Soviet troops during the 1980s and has had a long and complicated relationship with the C.I.A. He was among a group of fighters who received arms and millions of dollars from the C.I.A. during that period, but his allegiance with Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda during the following decade led the United States to sever the relationship. Haqqani and his sons now run a network that Western intelligence services say they believe is responsible for a campaign of violence throughout Afghanistan, including the Indian Embassy bombing, and an attack on the Serena Hotel in Kabul earlier this year.

Also, American officials also charged that members of the Pakistani intelligence service provide insurgents with details about the American campaign against them.

Indian officials had already accused the ISI of helping to orchestrate the Embassy attack.

Pakistan and India clashed again in the Kashmir which undermines a cease-fire established in November 2003. Indian and Pakistani soldiers fired at each other for more than 12 hours overnight Monday, in what appears to be the most serious violation of the cease-fire. The nightlong battle came after one Indian soldier and four Pakistanis were killed along the border.

Pakistan is no friend of the U.S. and if the UN were a potent force they should impose sanctions. The lawlessness of the Pakistanis seem to know no bounds. They are quickly degenerating into a rogue state.

Where Is the Public Outcry of Discrimination Against Buddhists?

Graphic source: CNN

I find it ironic that a popular culture news site such as CNN can run a feature entitled "Buddha's Warriors" without any public outcry. On the other hand, despite the fact that Muslims have been associated with worldwide violence, something that is not identified with Buddhism, there is a public outcry of discrimination when public figures suggest that Islam possibly has something to do with a martial, warrior mentality. Islam even has a doctrine which is suggestive of a warrior mentality, jihad, a point that is not shared with Buddhism.

CIA Presses Pakistan Plays

Maulavi Jalaluddin Haqqani Graphic source: The New York Times

The C.I.A. seems to have been more confrontational than in the past and their recent assessment earmarks the links between members of the spy service, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, and the militant network led by Maulavi Jalaluddin Haqqani, who appears to act as a proxy for Al Qaeda.

A C.I.A. official, Stephen R. Kappes, the agency’s deputy director, was apparently more direct in communicating American displeasure with Pakistan while on a recent visit. The public face is the one displayed by Bush with the Pakistani Prime Minister but behind the scenes the communication must have been blunter.

The loyalties of the various players is unclear. Just last weekend for example, Pakistani military and intelligence officials thwarted an attempt by the central government to put the ISI more directly under civilian control. Thus, it is unclear whether Pakistan officials are covering for the insurgents, or if the ISI has rogue elements that the government chooses to ignore.

The Afghan government has stated that the recent suicide bombings which killed dozens at the Indian Embassy in Kabul was conducted with the approval of the ISI.

According to the Times article: it was the ISI, backed by millions of covert dollars from the C.I.A., that ran arms to guerrillas fighting Soviet forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s. It is now American troops who are dying in Afghanistan, and intelligence officials believe those longstanding ties between Pakistani spies and militants may be part of an effort to destabilize Afghanistan.

Is there likely to be any fruit borne by Pakistan's latest effort at countering the insurgency? What happened yesterday is indicative I believe. According to the Times: "On Tuesday, Pakistani security forces raided an abandoned seminary owned by Mr. Haqqani, Pakistani officials said. No arrests were made."

This is simply more of the same, the Pakistanis make another feeble attempt at counter-terrorism as a show to the Americans. Oops! Haqqani is not at his abandoned seminary, who knew?

NASA Launches Historical Portal

Graphic source: NASA

This image is a cutaway illustration of the Explorer I satellite with callouts. The Explorer I satellite was America's first scientific satellite launched aboard the Jupiter C launch vehicle on January 31, 1958. The Explorer I carried the radiation detection experiment designed by Dr. James Van Allen and discovered the Van Allen Radiation Belt.

NASA last week launched a new interactive Web site, jointly developed with the non-profit Internet Archive, which is a single online resource featuring enhanced search, visual, and metadata capabilities. The portal stores more than 140,000 digitized high-resolution NASA photographs, audio, and film clips. Web 2.0 elements are scheduled to follow this initial launch.

Quick Fix for Much Bigger Issue

Forty years ago, the U.S. was the world's biggest oil producer. But in 1970 U.S. crude oil output peaked. More importantly, the 9.6 million barrels produced a day was enough to cover the bulk of the country's needs. Currently, U.S. crude production covers only 42% of the country's needs. After that, we are dependent on foreign oil and the repressive regimes that guarantee the availability of oil to us. Despite Nixon's clarion call for "Project Independence" in 1973 we have done little to make that vision real.

On the world front, Matthew Simmons, a voluble Houston-based consultant, states that the world hit its sustainable peak oil level in May 2005.

The immediate obstacle to oil though is political as whatever resources we have left remain isolated in Alaska's wilderness preserves and on the Outer Continental Shelf off the Atlantic, Pacific and eastern Gulf of Mexico coasts.

These should be opened up immediately.

Thereafter, in Iraq, where the world's biggest untapped prospects lie, major oil firms should invest in the country which would help both the U.S. and Iraq.

None of these obvious statements are an answer since they are simply an immediate fix while we wean ourselves away from dependence on foreign oil.

The next President should be thinking long and hard on seriously implementing the vision that Nixon sought in '73.

Bush Weak Before Pakistan

Today begins a week of frustration as President Bush praised Pakistan's prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani for his commitment to their joint battle against extremists. This is a joke.

Neither leader addressed the latest clash in Pakistan, a missile strike that hit a madrassa housing insurgents just inside the border with Afghanistan.

Bush said: "Pakistan is a strong ally and a vibrant democracy."

Pakistan double-deals with the insurgents who are killing our troops. It is not a vibrant democracy but large swatches of its territory are under the de facto control of various competing insurgent groups.

Until Washington gets tough with countries that will stab us in the back or our troops are unleashed the situation will continue in the insurgents favor who trade lives for time. They are waiting us out knowing that the CIA is limited in their actions and since we have no troops in Pakistan they can bide their time. In the meantime, the insurgents, many of whom are viewed highly by Pakistan, can raid our troops in Afghanistan before beating a hasty retreat across the border of protection of Pakistan.

The threat of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of the insurgents has allowed Pakistan to snooker the U.S. into feeding them more cash. They are playing up the terrorist threat to the hilt and yet do nothing to stop them.