Bush Leading Towards a Renewal of the Middle East Peace Process

The U.S., EU, Russia, and the U.N. are detailing a series of key talks to re-vitalize the Middle East peace process for a peace conference in November.

The Arab League will have representation.

In addition to Israel and the Palestinians, expected countries include: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia and Yemen and Syria.

A key move is that the Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert are drafting a document that would "lay the foundations for serious negotiations." The Arab representatives are criticizing the work as non-substantive.

The Islamist movement, Hamas, is already predicting the conferences are a waste of time.

Ian Hunter, "When The World Was Round," Animated Video Release

Jerkin' Crocus in the UK will release the first single from Ian Hunter's critically acclaimed album Shrunken Heads on 29 Oct 2007. 'When The World Was Round' will be available in three formats: a 7 inch picture disc, a CD single, and a DVD single. Each format will be on sale for £1.99, or all three can be bought for £3.99. The 7 inch and CD will both include unreleased material, whilst the DVD will include an animated video. Pre-orders are available now from Townsend Records.

U.N. Not to Abandon Iraq Again?

The U.N. may be ready to get its hands dirty again after abandoning the Iraqis after a 2003 bombing.

Secretary General Ban Ki-moon pledged that the time had arrived for determined action on Iraq. This should also be the time that nations that consistently weighed in on Iraq should arrive with their financing and ideas but I doubt that will happen.

It remains to be seen if the U.N. will make any difference given the fact that a greater U.N. presence will do little to ensure better security.

Since a 2003 bombing killed the U.N.'s top envoy--Sergio Vieira de Mello--and 21 others the U.N. presence has been negligible. Iraqi Primi Minister Nouri Maliki says he can now guarantee UN security. Not.

The U.N. recognizes that the military solution, as hammered out by the U.S., can not operate in a vacuum. The U.S. military has done all that it has been asked to do.

Now is time for others to jump into the breach.

Germany and Japan are pledging supoort. Saudi Arabia and Iran are making their presence known, however, this should involve a great deal of oversight from the international community. Too easily funding could be directed to groups that are de-stabilzing influences. More positively, representatives from international economic organisations such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have been involved in recent discussions.

Firefox, Not Only Just a Long Time to Download

The new Firefox 3.0 alpha blocks malware, takes a long time to tie up your computer while downloading as I realize from first-hand experience, and it secures plug-in updates.

I am glad to see that security features debut in the latest download, it is one of the best features of Firefox. Now that Mozilla Corporation has updated Firefox 3.0 to alpha 8, this is the revealing for the first time to users concerning the several security features that have been in the works.

One of the features debuting is the alpha of "Gran Paradiso," the code name for Firefox 3.0, which includes built-in anti-malware warnings and protection against rogue extension updates.

An interesting twist on the Firefox phenomenon are the small plug-ins--"extensions" in Mozilla lingo--thus increasing its scalability, range, and flexibility. Even more important is that the several thousand extensions originated with outside developers, that include diverse tools to pick from.

The browser is smart in that updates are authenticated and downloaded automatically.

This is a worthwhile upgrade while Mozilla has not officially announced a release date for the final version of Firefox 3.0.

Microsoft Reveals U.S. Navy Secrets

Microsoft is revealing U.S. submarine secrets through its Virtual Earth tool. The image clearly shows the propeller on an Ohio class submarine.

The picture has enough detail to show the seven-bladed prop. The image was photographed while the boomer was in dry dock at the Navy's base in Bangor, Washington.

This revelation might allow a reverse engineering opportunity for nefarious purposes.

In fact, submarine propulsion systems are engineered to operate as silently as possible and the design clearly is one of the Navy's most closely guarded secrets.

If you recall the movie The Hunt For Red October U.S. forces attempt to hunt down a Soviet submarine equipped with completely silent hydrojets with the drama hinging on the silent operation.

At least there were no topless sailors in the photo. In 2006, Google Earth caused quite a stir when the system photographed a Dutch woman sunbathing topless in her backyard.

Obvious: Cell Phone Usage Causes Brain Damage

Perhaps my headline is overstating the case but we all know frequent cell phone use may slow brain function which has been studied by researchers.

I know its true that when trying to walk through a store or when winding my way through traffic the cell phone users are dim-witted and in the way.

The researchers in Australia, England, and the Netherlands studied 300 persons and as published in the International Journal of Neuroscience, looked at the group of people over 2.4 years. A larger study expands the basics here to gather data on 17,000 people over a longer period of time.

Stanford Saves Face (book)

Stanford will host a course on designing applications in Facebook. The focus is designed to teach a broad range of students how to build "engaging Web applications." You might not know that from the actual name of the course: "Create Engaging Web Applications Using Metrics and Learning on Facebook."

What I find amusing about these higher education courses is that they are developing the things that at the secondary level students are being told to avoid.

7 Begin Trial in Miami

Graphic source: Department of Justice photo of Narseal Batiste.

The jury selection began in Miami for the seven men accused of plotting to destroy Chicago's Sears Tower and bomb FBI offices with the goal of inciting an anti-government insurrection.

The trial is in the wake of last month's conviction of Jose Padilla, formerly held as an enemy combatant, and two other men on murder conspiracy and terrorism support charges.

The seven men from the Liberty City neighborhood face charges of up to 70 years in prison if convicted of conspiracy to levy war against the United States and conspiracy to provide material support to al-Qaida.

The ringleader is a construction worker named Narseal Batiste, 33, and the seven were videotaped pledging allegiance to al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden.

The seven hoped to trigger a "full ground war" and replace the U.S. government with one based on Islam according to tape transcripts.

The objections to this case seem a big odd since the plotters never got far enough to assemble explosives and weapons. On the other hand, this went beyond just opinions, ideas, and speech. They were plotting and just because they did not pull it off is no reason to demean law enforcement.

Sim City Iraq

Iraq re-enactments are using 3-D imaging and innovative computer animation to show nascent commanders how the battles are shaping up. The "Virtual Staff Rides" come courtesy of the Combat Studies Institute at Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas.

The project has been in the works since February 2005.

France Prepared for Nuclear War With Iran

UPI ran a story quoting France's foreign minister as warning that the world should prepare for war if Iran obtains nuclear weapons. Bernard Kouchner added that European leaders were considering their own economic sanctions against the Islamic country.

I wonder what France has lost, certainly there are no principles that they would feel are worth defending.

Hackers Aim at Web 2.0

Web 2.0 is barely out of the bag but hackers have already loosed a torrent of malicious code threats aimed at vulnerabilities, Symantec Corporation announced today. The most dangerous targeting vulnerabilities? Browser plug-ins.

Second to Microsoft?

Another disappointing decision for Microsoft from a 2004 antitrust ruling in the European Union.

The Court of First Instance rejected Microsoft's appeal, and confirmed both of the behaviors the European Union's Competition Commission said were illegal. Microsoft has bundled, or ties Windows Media Player to the operating system. And, Microsoft used the dominance of Windows on the desktop to increase in the share of the server software market.

In August 2000 the European Union's Competition Commission filed its first "Statement of Objections," or official complaint, against Microsoft. The complaint accused Microsoft of withholding technical information that would have let other server operating system developers make their products interoperate with Windows clients.

No fan of Microsoft here but who will be able to replace Microsoft and actually be their competition?

Wikipedia Summary of Imperial Hubris

One of the most worthwhile books I have read in some time: Imperial Hubris. I reproduce here, in its entirety, the Wikipedia article as of today on the work.

Summary of Imperial Hubris

Preface

Author a "career-long 'headquarters' officer . . . focused exclusively on terrorism, Islamic insurgencies, militant Islam, and the affairs of South Asia ― Afghanistan and Pakistan" (ix-x). Conclusions: (1) "We are fighting a worldwide Islamic insurgency ― not criminality or terrorism"; (2) current policies make the military "America's only tool"; (3) bin Laden's reasons are "U.S. policies and actions in the Muslim world"; (4) his war depends on "the tenets" of Islam; (5) U.S. interest in "Persian Gulf oil" central; (6) war may last many decades and be fought "mostly on U.S. soil" (x-xi). Foreboding of future attack; reproach to neglect of "duty" by "leaders" (xii).

Acknowledgments

Foreign Broadcast Information Service; a small group of "mostly women" officers working "against the bin Laden target" (xiii); references to U.S. martial past (xii, xiv, passim).

Introduction: "Hubris Followed by Defeat"

U.S. is completing the radicalization of the Islamic world (xv). War in Afghanistan "is being lost" (xvi). Invasion of Iraq was militaristic, untimely, "avaricious, premeditated, unprovoked war" (xvi-xvii). Osama bin Laden's strength is his ideas, grounded in Islam (xvii-xviii). He is waging "a defensive jihad" to advance "clear, focused, limited, and widely popular foreign policy goals" (xviii). Sources: bin Laden's pronouncements, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Sulayman Abu Gayeth, 3 web sites (Al-Ansar, Al-Neda, and Al-Islah), various secondary sources (xix). Importance of Internet emphasized (xx). Hubris seems to doom us; "al Qaeda sees the world clearer than we" (xxi).

Ch. 1: Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred

Most Muslims reject separation of religion from politics (2). So they take seriously anti-Islamic statements from U.S. evangelists (2-4). Like most Muslims, bin Laden sincerely loves God (4). Islam's "loving tone" (4-6). Defensive jihad is a personal obligation, requiring no authority (sources: Bernard Lewis, Daniel Pipes) (6-8). U.S. policies and actions, not values, are the cause (8-11). Evidence of U.S. attack on Islam, from Muslims' perspective: (1) U.S. challenging Muslim jihad, charity, and curricula (11); (2) U.S. supporting oppression of Muslims, apostate Muslim regimes, anti-Muslim economic and military sanctions, and control of oil in Muslim lands (12-13); (3) politically, U.S. denies self-determination to Muslim lands, occupies Muslim states, supports Israeli expropriation of Palestine (13-14). These views are nearly universal in the Muslim world and cannot be undone through PR (14-16). U.S. is seen as the restorer of colonialism (16). The fault is not in them, but in us: the cause of the war is "their love for Allah and their hatred for a few, specific U.S. policies and actions" (17). Bin Laden and the mujahideen are "legitimate and romantic heroes" loved as "symbols of hope" (18-19).

Ch. 2: An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat ― The United States in Afghanistan

Intelligence advice: "do the checkables first" (21-22). Al Qaeda has achieved seven major "victories": Aden, Mogadishu, Riyadh, Dharan, Nairobi/Dar es Salaam, Aden, 9/11 (22-24). U.S. should have had plans for immediate response and executed them ― but did not (24-27). U.S. had vast expertise on Afghanistan, but failed to use it after 9/11 (27-30). Lessons from the Soviet war in Afghanistan available, but unused (30-32). By Sept. 1, 2001, the Afghan Northern Alliance was a defeated force, and after the assassination of Ahmed Shah Masood on Sept. 9, certainly not the basis of a national government (33-35). Masood represented only "a small subset of the country's Tajik minority" (35-37). The Karzai régime and its allies are hopelessly unrepresentative (37-39). U.S. ignored key Islamic commanders (41-45). The Karzai government is doomed (45-46). Seven truths about Afghans ignored by U.S.: (1) only Pashtuns rule durably (47); (2) the U.S. backed Westernized Afghans, not the "Muslim tribal xenophobes" who matter (48-49); (3) Afghans can't be controlled by money (49-51); (4) strong central governments, like the one Karzai is seeking, cause war in Afghanistan (52); (5) Afghanistan is a cauldron of international tensions (53-54); (6) Pakistan's national security depends on an Islamist, Pashtun-dominated régime (54-56); (7) an Islamic régime in Kabul is inevitable (56-57).

Ch. 3: Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum

Al-Qaeda's fighters compared to those of the Army of Northern Virginia in the American Civil War (59-60). Al Qaeda follows principles of successful insurgent groups (60-61). When attacked, the Taliban dispersed effectively (61-66). U.S. lacks knowledge of al-Qaeda's order of battle, so cannot estimate damage to the organization (66-68). U.S. still hampered by a "law-enforcement mentality" (69-71). Two recent studies are good: Jason Burke's Al Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror (2003), and Rohan Gunaratna, Inside al Qaeda's Global Network of Terror (2002) (71). Al-Qaeda extremely popular in Saudi Arabia (71-74). Ansar al-Islam received effective help from al-Qaeda in northern Iraq (74-75). Al-Qaeda is present in Lebanon, but does not cooperated operationally with Hezbollah (76-77; see 229). Al-Qaeda's effective use of the Internet (78-84). Given U.S. policies, "blood-soaked offensive military actions" are the only path to victory (84-86). The following "balance sheet of 2001-2004" excludes Kashmir, Philippines, Algeria, Palestine, and Aceh (Indonesia) (86). "Victories" for U.S. and allies "almost entirely tactical" (87-91). Al Qaeda's and allies' "victories" show "strategic environment" has shifted in their favor (91-100). Acc. to al-Qurashi, al-Qaeda considers the U.S. center of gravity to be the economy, not public opinion (101-02).

Ch. 4: The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus?

"Viewed from any angle, Osama bin Laden is a great man," "world-changing" in Western eyes and revered by tens of millions of Muslims (103-05). The evil-criminal view (105-07). Denigrations of his mind and capacity for leadership (107-09). Said by some to be dominated by al-Zawahiri (109). The thesis that Islam is a "failed civilization" lashing out in resentment (109-13) does not jibe with bin Laden's view: he blames Muslims themselves (114-15). Ideals of tolerance and multiculturalism impede analysis (115-16). Bin Laden as military genius (Christopher Bellamy) (117). Bin Laden as business genius (Larry Seaquist; Bruce Hoffman) (117-18). These miss the religious inspiration of the Islamic hero (118-21). Testimony of those who know him (121-22). Influence of size of his enemy (U.S.) (123). Bin Laden inspires love (124-25). He, like Abraham Lincoln, represents belief in a moral universe (Scheuer quotes again from Kent Gramm's Gettysburg: A Meditation on War and Values (1994) (125-26; also xii and passim).

Ch. 5: Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist

Importance of bin Laden's words, neglected by the West (127-29). Main concept: defending the ummah [= Islamic community bound by religious ties on a tribal model (OED)] from U.S. attacks (129-31). Al-Qaeda's role is principally to awaken and incite Muslims (131-34). Suicide bombers perceived positively in Muslim world as heroes of "self-sacrifice, patriotism, and worship" (135). Bin Laden's elegy of 9/11 hijackers misunderstood in West (135-36). Bin Laden frustrated by inadequate response from Muslim middle and upper-middle classes (137). Poem by bin Laden; use of poetry (138). Bin Laden's historical uniqueness comes from focusing Islamic resistance on the international level, on the U.S. (139-40). The centrality of Afghanistan is due to a need for a new Muslim state as a world center from which to launch a new caliphate (140-44). Recent refinements: allowing some attacks on non-U.S. targets (145-47), creating a vulnerability should a free-lancer cause Europe and U.S. to come together again (148); attacking "apostate régimes" more directly and accusing clerics of compliance with corrupt U.S.-backed power (148-52); preparing Muslim opinion by presenting arguments justifying WMD attack on U.S. (152-58). Bin Laden's 2001 statements on U.S. attitudes, unheeded (158-61).

Ch. 6: Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves ― Non-Wars, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy

American élites' blinding "imperial hubris" (term also used in Through Our Enemies' Eyes [2001]) endangers U.S. safety (163-168). The case of bin Laden is a maximal instance of this (168). Bin Laden's fidelity to his words demonstrated by pattern of post-9/11 attacks (169-70). 1990-2003 U.S. "victories" are really only self-declared ―no foe has been defeated (170). E.g. Afghanistan (171-77). Castigates U.S. military hierarchy: "lieutenant colonel . . . seems to be where truth-telling stops" (177). Win-quick and low-casualties-on-both-sides an "immoral" approach to war that violates the "basic lesson of military history since Alexander" (177-80). E.g. Afghanistan (180-81), Iraq (181-82). Placing Mongolian and Indian troops in Iraq shows ignorance of history (182-83). It is un-American to argue that only those with military experience can criticize military policy and operations (183-84). Some U.S. general should resign to protest recent U.S. approach to war (184-85). U.S. policy mentality too legalistic (185-86). CIA & FBI have "fundamentally incompatible" missions ― one breaks the law, the other enforces it (187-88). Law-enforcement focus lulls public (188-89). Islamists not affected by legal approach (189-90). We need to "fix the problems" in "intelligence community cooperation" (190-92). Endemic leaking by officials is treason due to hubris (192-99). John Quincy Adams in 1821: "America does not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy" (200-01). Invasion of Afghanistan is an arrogant attempt to do just that (201-03). Worse, U.S. leaders show no knowledge of American history (203-04). U.S. political achievements hard-won and not historically transferable (204-05). Muslim society, "where God and Caesar are the same," presents special difficulties (205-06). Recommendation: "Victory, I think, lies in a yet undetermined mix of stronger military actions and dramatic foreign policy change" (207).

Ch. 7: When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How America's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes

Unlike Khomeini in Iran, bin Laden has six focuses foreign policy goals: (1) end U.S. aid to Israel; (2) U.S. withdrawal from Arabian peninsula; (3) end of U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan; (4) end of U.S. support for Muslim oppression by China, Russia, India, etc.; (5) Muslim control of oil and sale at market prices (6) Islamist régimes instead of U.S.-protected Muslim régimes (209-12). Invasion of Iraq an unexpected gift to bin Laden (212-14). U.S. failed correctly to analyze the threat in the 1990s (214-16). Camps were training not only "terrorists" but, especially, "insurgents" (216-22). As a result "the brutal reality . . . is that we must kill many thousands of these fighters" (222). Coalition-building after 9/11 wasted time, imposed civilized standards, and counterproductively associated the U.S. with oppression elsewhere (222-26). Israel: "Objectively, al Qaeda does not seem too far off the mark when it describes the U.S.-Israel relationship as a detriment to America" (227-30). Post-9/11 measures that have increased Muslims' anti-American feelings: Immigration rule changes (231-33); interference with freedom of speech (233-34); hi-tech war briefings (234-35).

Ch. 8: The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate

Risk aversion in the intelligence bureaucracy (237-38). Guidelines for use in defeating bin Laden and militant Islam: don't overblow the war (239); stop glorifying bereavement (239-40); accept that we are hated for our policies and acts (240-41); be bloody-minded and kill in large numbers (241-42); fight without principle ("engaging in whatever martial behavior is needed") (242); "stop knee-jerk yellow ribboning" (242-43); depend on ourselves, not others (specifically, Pakistan) (243-44); rely on real expertise (244-45); deal with bin Laden as a warrior, not a terrorist (246-47); attain energy self-sufficiency (247-48); break the military-industrial institutional nexus, perhaps by "banning many post-retirement jobs in exchange for a full-salary annuity after thirty years" (248-49); accept that we are at war with Islam (249-50); "learn to watch others die with equanimity" (Ralph Peters) (250-52). War cannot be avoided, but new policies affecting the length and cost of war are possible (253-54). Recommended reading (254). We must accept that bin Laden is "a worthy and dangerous foe" (255). U.S. needs a frank and public policy debate (255-57). Questions: Does support for Israel serve U.S. interests? (257) Do we have a duty to defend freedom beyond our borders, or to "abandon the sordid legacy of Woodrow Wilson's internationalism"? (257-58) What do we gain from backing corrupt tyrannical Muslim régimes, except for cheap oil? Have we the moral courage for energy self-sufficiency? Do we need bases on the Arabian peninsula? Do we have the moral right to spread democracy? (258) Hopes for policy changes, but "as always, the majority must rule" (259).

Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism

Americans have still not recognized the nature of the war they are losing (citing George Tenet's late-Feb. 2004 testimony to a Senate committee) (261-63).

Child's Play

This is a scene of a Shia child being raised in the Middle East.

U.S. Grant on How To Conduct American Warfare

The art of war is simple enough. Find out where the enemy is. Get at him as soon as you can. Strike him as hard as you can and as often as you can, and keep moving on.

General U.S. Grant

Graphic source: www.ushist.com.

It may seem strange that today I am reflecting on how to increase U.S. troop levels in the wake of Bush's reluctant acquiescence for the necessity of a troop withdrawal. Readers of this blog should be accustomed to the oddness of my perspective by now though. Today I wonder why we are not increasing the level and lethality of our troops.

We are convincing worldwide insurgents that America has not the will nor the stomach for warfare.

Americans, for their part, sated with their congratulatory self-satisfaction in their humaneness and civilized conduct of war are relieved with the satisfaction that the desultory Bush has finally seen the light of day.

If only things were that simple.

Grant, who knew a thing or two about war, during the Civil War showed Americans how war is conducted and he was successful in eliminating the Confederacy.

Through their shock and awe, horrifying for the time, Grant and Sherman demonstrated to the American people how to decapitate, destroy, and obliterate the enemy: the Confederacy.

American democracy was all the stronger as a result and the U.S. lost none of its moral strength for unleashing the full fury of finally and completely mobilizing the North's might through the Union army.

Americans have lost their killer instinct and seem to believe war can be conducted cleanly, clinically, and safely illustrated on CNN in sound bites. The illustrations reassure Americans that we are systematically tracking down the enemy, as false as that conclusion is, and it demonstrates to the enemy, who is also watching, that though some die--rewarded by entering paradise no less--America can be beaten, since the deadly might of America is tempered by public opinion and restrained from unleashing its fury. The conclusion, `this too shall pass,' is clear.

War is hell according to General Sherman but once engaged stopping and engaging in half-military measures only makes America less secure and ensures that more American soldiers will die needlessly in subsequent deployments.

Debate all you want about the reasons for originally engaging in the conflict in Iraq but we are failing to conduct war as Americans have found to be necessary in order to successfully bring about the desired result.

Also, Americans are not convinced we are at war in any case. We fail to accept bin Laden as he is, true to his word, lethal, patient, clever, and long-suffering in seeking a death blow to American.

The import of his latest videos is a warning, convert to Islam before it is too late, the standard Muslim announcement before an attack which justifies to an Islamic audience that the devastation to be inflicted can be avoided if only the infidel would have listened. The next spectacular al-Qaida attack is coming. 9/11 was just a warm-up.

In the announced troop withdrawal, none of Grant's precepts are being followed.

We don't know where the enemy is. We are not pursuing the enemy with all deliberate and lethal speed. Our tepid attacks have not dented the enemy's resolve. We are not hitting often, and we are bogged down in both Iraq and Afghanistan, even retreating.

Our modern distaste for historic American military violence notwithstanding, we will have to go back, we will have a more devastating attack on mainland America, and more innocents and soldiers will needlessly die for no visible gains.

"One Fine Night, When We Were All in Bed, Mrs. Osama Left An IED in the Shed"

Graphic source: Wikipedia Commons, originally published in Harper's Weekly.

What you don't know won't hurt you is a saying very wrong in the confidential Chicago terrorist threat assessment which was leaked over P2P. In 2002, a study performed by top consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton Inc., commissioned by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA), considered 35 threat assessments of the nation's bus and rail systems.

Larry Yellen, a Fox News reporter, acquired the confidential terrorist threat assessment on Chicago over a peer-to-peer (P2P) program, LimeWire, a public file-sharing network.

With Al-Qaida urging the U.S. to embrace Islam, a traditional notice before an imminent military strike, the information is revealing, and alarming in how available critical knowledge is readily disseminated on the Internet.

Popular P2P clients such as Kazaa, LimeWire, BearShare, Morpheus, and FastTrack are designed to let users quickly download and share files. If the access these P2P clients have on a system is not secure, it is easy to expose and share personal data with users on a file-sharing network.

In July, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform heard testimony from several witnesses about how everything from classified military documents to corporate data can be found on P2P networks. The leaked documents on P2P networks included the Pentagon's entire secret backbone network infrastructure diagram; contractor data on radio frequency manipulation to defeat improvised explosive devices in Iraq; and physical terrorism threat assessments for three major U.S cities.

Bush as Saladin: Bin Laden Hiding in a Cave

Graphic source: The White House.

Once the death toll mounts for Arab fighters it is at that time that victory is declared. This is the historical pattern made clear by successive defeats against Israel. Once Bush announces his plans this evening to withdraw a limited number of troops, no doubt citing that some of the benchmarks have been met, the Arab response will be to declare victory.

Meanwhile, hiding in a cave somewhere is the person who has refused to sacrifice himself; in contrast, Bush has visited his troops three times to lend moral support.

Who should be humiliated by their behavior?

Thought on 9/11

If U.S. leaders truly believed the country is at war with bin Laden and the Islamists, they would dump the terminally adolescent bureaucrats and their threat matrix, accept and tell the voters that war brings repeated and at times grievous defeats as well as victories, and proceed with relentless, brutal, and yes, blood-soaked offensive military actions until we have annihilated the Islamists who threaten us, or so mutilate their forces, supporting populations, and physical infrastructure that they recognize continued war-making on their part futile.

Imperial Hubris, Michael Scheuer, p. 85.

Not Much New for Osama

Bin Laden didn't have much to say. There is a new tape of a 9/11 terrorist but the same old tired rhetoric. The audience for this tape is Middle Eastern. I can't see how many people in an American context are fearful as one of the points of the attack seemed to be.

With nothing compelling to say, al-Qaida will wait to strike in a bigger and bolder attack. They are patient.

Progress Petraeus

Graphic Source: BBC.

I know he said "working" but I think he should be called Progress Petraeus. Petraeus has more to say tomorrow but as readers on this blog would have noted, I predicted what Petraeus would say.

I don't believe Petraeus is simply putting a Bush spin on the numbers; I believe in the essential substance of what he is saying: the military made the surge work.

He stated that the military objectives of the U.S. troop surge in Iraq "are largely being met." Although improvements were "uneven," violence had declined significantly since the surge began in February.

In his testimony before the joint hearing by the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees, Petraeus said "security incidents," had declined since the start of the surge; he anticipated the withdrawal of around 30,000 U.S. troops by the middle of 2008, beginning with 2,000 marines in September.

However, the situation in Iraq remained "difficult."

A record 168,000 US troops are now in Iraq after 30,000 arrived in the surge between February and June.

Petraeus told the committees that troop numbers could be eventually reduced to pre-surge level without jeopardising the security situation.

But he warned that a premature reduction would have "devastating consequences."

"It is possible to achieve our objectives in Iraq over time, although doing so will be neither quick, nor easy," he said. If this is a gradual draining of our resources, then this point was not addressed.

The objective of the surge was to buy time for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki to end sectarian violence and secure a political settlement between sectarian groups.

Maliki failed. Iraq has not produced leaders who want to lead, and leaders who do not want to end the corruption, waste, and stop sectarian violence.

The U.S. military did their part; the Iraqis failed themselves.