Life On Mars?

I remarked on the Mars landing recently and its fascinating to consider the IT process at work. Engineers are beaming up daily software code to run the 7.5-foot arm and analyze soil samples. The questions driving the expedition are enormous. The Lander is collecting samples to discover if water flowed across the surface. And, where there is water, as many have wondered, the big question is, is there Life On Mars?

Coalition Captures a "key Special Groups financier"

One of the progress points in Iraq has been the identifying and shutting down of the ratlines into the country. Iran established the Ramazan Corps, which is run by the Qods Force, to direct operations and move weapons, money, and fighters to what it views as critical battlefields in Iraq. It is these infernal operations that have been painstakenly dismantled.

World Lauds Iraq Efforts

Ban Ki-moon Graphic source: AFP

Who would have thought, even a year ago, that world leaders would laud the U.S. for its efforts in Iraq? But UN chief Ban Ki-moon hailed Iraq's progress in combatting violence and stabilising the country. A declaration adopted by 100 delegations at a Stockholm conference said the participants "recognised the important efforts made by the (Iraqi) government to improve security and public order and combat terrorism and sectarian violence across Iraq." Moreover, it acknowledged political and economic progress, and stated that "given the difficult context, these successes are all the more remarkable." Ban stated that Iraq was "stepping back from the abyss that we feared most," and added that Iraq could fulfill its "vision of becoming a free, secure, stable and prosperous nation."

One drawback is Iraqi debt, which excluding interest, is some 140 billion dollars, including 10 billion dollars owed to Saudi Arabia and a little less to Kuwait.

The Stockholm conference was the first follow-up meeting since the International Compact with Iraq, a five-year peace and economic development plan, was adopted in Egypt in May 2007.

Coalition Coalescing

Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi indicated that Italian troop deployment in Afghanistan may change. Berlusconi's statement came shorty after Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said some of Italy's 2,500 soldiers in Afghanistan might be redeployed to the more dangerous and combative south to fight the Taliban if NATO requested it. Berlusconi told Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper he was rethinking the rules on Italy's troop deployment "in a spirit of solidarity with its allies." Canada has around 2,500 troops in the region already and 82 of its soldiers have been killed there since 2002. The country's parliament voted in April to extend its military mission in the volatile southern Afghanistan to 2011, provided its allies sent reinforcements. ISAF, which comprises some 47,000 troops from 40 nations, is trying to spread the rule of Afghanistan's weak central government and foster reconstruction.

Italy's position might be coupled with the recent comments from Australia's military that they too sought a more active combat role in the Iraqi situation.

In addition, although the Coalition has sought a greater role from its European allies, elite German commandos are not permitted to kill known Taliban commanders. The Norwegians have no such qualms. Recently, Norwegian forces based in Badghis province came under attack, and they responded by killing thirteen Taliban during battle.

If I were to believe the major news media this should not be happening but some of the Allies are seeking a more active, combat role in operations. I would think that it is entirely possible that intelligence is being disseminated and the word is out that the Taliban and AQ are on the run. After years of combat the Coalition is coalescing.

Hate Is More Popular Than Ever

Hate is in this year, even 2.0 style. A recent report documents the largest spike in digital hate Web sites and online posts in the last decade. With the benefit of Web 2.0 technologies, online hate activities have jumped 30% in the past year, according to a report by the Simon Wiesenthal Center, an international Jewish human rights organization.

The spike in the number is primarily because of the increasing availability of the viral, repetitious [applications] and an increase outside the U.S. by extremist try to get their pitch across. The terrorist groups and those who support them are at the cutting edge of technology,

according to Rabbi Abraham Cooper, associate dean of the Wiesenthal Center.

Terrorist activities have spawned SMS2US, created by the Islamic Front for the Iraqi Resistance, for "inspirational" Short Messaging Service messages that are overlaid onto videos of attacks against coalition forces. And, the Media Sword Campaign, an effort by al-Qaeda to use discussion forums to get support for jihad (holy war) and to recruit hackers for its cause.

These activities should alert people to the fact that the technology lowers the barrier of entry for terrorists yet is an effective tool for the crafty practioner. The terrorists exploit educational tools much quicker and faster than educators generally seem capable of.

Iraqi Army Pushes Deeper Into Sadr

Opposition, if you want to call it that, resulted in the deaths of ten Mahdi Army fighters when "operations against special groups in eastern Baghdad" were reported today. Iraqi troops seize 59 explosively formed projectiles in Sadr City since May 24 as Iraqis, on their own, pushed into Sadr City, with background support of U.S. troops. An early estimate is that the U.S. can withdraw in 2009. Now, that's an intriguing ideas worth exploring but in the volative Iraqi situation, I would make no predictions. I would wait until Christmas and announce it as a gift.

Al Qaeda Mixes a Nuclear Cocktail

"Nuclear Terrorism" as advocated by Al Qaeda has been posted on a web site which calls jihadists to use nuclear or chemical weapons to strike the west.

"Strike civilians in the west without mercy using weapons of mass destruction" the video states in the 39-minute tape.

The video continues: "Attack those who attack you. Fear Allah and know that Allah is with those who fear Him."

An off camera voice invites Muslim fighters to obtain these weapons of mass destruction and shows a document on the "rules for using weapons of mass destruction against the unbelievers" written by Saudi scholar Naser Bin Hamed al-Fahd.

al-Fahd states: "They kill our people and for this reason we should also strike them with weapons of mass destruction - doing so forms part of our response to their attacks."

He continues: "We cannot stop the operations against our civilians conducted by Jews and Christians in our countries if we don't do the same thing."

al-Fahd states: "The best weapons to use are bacteriological ones. This type of barbarous weapon is used by the international community."

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water.

Under 16 Year Old Al Qaeda Cell Formed

Graphic source: AKI

The Iraq Al-Qaeda cancer released a video of a teenage terror cell under the Islamic State of Iraq, the umbrella name adopted by al-Qaeda groups, the video features the group's new teenage terror cell for those under 16 years of age.

The video of the cell is known as "Youths of Heaven" and is produced by al-Furqan, the media production arm of the Islamic State of Iraq.

Al-Arabiya ran the video first which shows a group of young aspiring suicide bombers brandishing Kalashnikovs and promising to blow themselves up against "the crusaders and apostates."

The new al-Qaeda terror cell is only open to those under the age of 16.

Law Enforcement Learns to Share

Key to Law Enforcement Database Standards:

Global Justice XML Data Model (GJXDM) — An XML-based standard that defines the vocabulary and format for data exchanges among law enforcement databases. All of the databases above now support GJXDM data exchanges.

National Information Exchange Model (NIEM) — The NGI, N-DEx and NGA are NIEM-compliant, which means that they meet the information exchange technical standards developed by the DOJ’s Office of Justice Programs and local law enforcement agencies. Based on the GJXDM, NIEM is an updated standard that serves a broader community beyond law enforcement. It promotes cross-domain data sharing, such as exchanges between law enforcement and emergency management. NIEM includes GJXDM as well as other data structures.

Cf. http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=317970&source=NLT_PRN&nlid=2941

Graphic Source: FBI, DOD and US-VISIT

Aussies Tired of Waltzing

Graphic source: REUTERS/Mohammed Jalil/Pool An Australian solider guards an area during a joint street patrol with Iraqi security forces in Sammawa, south of Baghdad June 22, 2006.

You have to hand it to the Australian troops. There they are, in the midst of a regional conflict in which their nation's interests are at stake, and yet, they are restrained from engaging in real action in Iraq. As the U.S. is turning the tide in Iraq, and other nations, mostly Europeans, have failed to follow-up on obligations, the Australians want to be in the thick of it.

According to Major Jim Hammett, in an article entitled "We Were Soldiers Once," in the Australian Army Journal, the good soldier stated that some infantry soldiers were ashamed of wearing the Australian uniform.

Hammett notes that the troops are restricted in their ability to engage although they wanted more action.

In a subsequent article in the journal, Captain Greg Colton, second-in-command of Sydney's 3rd battalion, agreed but further stated said troops were kept from frontlines like "downtown Baghdad, Basra and Helmand province."

Australia has long supported U.S. policies but it placed only special forces on the ground, not infantry, as well as supplying support forces, ships, and aircraft.

Australia has almost 4,000 troops but it only has a nominal number, 500 troops, in frontline action.

Hammett asks a pointed question:

"Why, in an era of global operations and unity of purpose against common enemies, are Australian infantrymen conspicuously absent from the fighting, whilst our allies are engaging in sustained combat operations?"

He has a valid point. Australia has a direct stake in the regional future of Iraq and this ally has proved its committment to a global problem. Why are they being restrained and who is preventing them from taking a leading role?

Daily Update

حتجز [أوس] و [إيرقي] أمن قوّات 135 يشكّ مهدي جيش مقاتل في بغداد. [إيرقي] عسكريّة ناطق بلسان قد كان يقال موصل أخلى من [أل] - [قدا]. إئتلاف قتل قوّات ثلاثة [أل] - [قدا] عميلات ويحتجز 17 أثناء غارة.

US and Iraqi security forces detained 135 suspected Mahdi Army fighters in Baghdad. An Iraqi military spokesman said Mosul has been cleared of al Qaeda. Coalition forces killed three al Qaeda operatives and detained 17 during raids.

Whaddya' From Mars? Frankly, Yes

Graphic source: NASA

The Mars Phoenix lander touched down in the far north of the Red Planet, after a 680 million-km (423 million-mile) journey from Earth. The lander will examine the landing site for ice thought to be below the surface and evidence of the building blocks of life. A signal confirming the lander had reached the surface was received at 2353 GMT on 25 May (1953 EDT; 0053 BST on 26 May).

Iraqi Troops Clear Mosul of AQ and Other Insurgents

Iraqi troops cleared Al-Qaeda from Mosul, the last urban bastion of jihad, the interior ministry announced. "Operation Mother of Two Springs has enabled us to dismantle and weaken the Al-Qaeda network in Nineveh province," spokesman Abdel Karim Khalaf stated. 1,480 people have been detained since the operation began. The range of those netted included other groups in addition to Al-Qaeda, members of Ansar al-Sunna, the Army of Mujahedeen, and the Brigades of the 1920 Revolution.

Al-Maliki Relating to China and Spain

Al-Maliki is seeking to develop deeper ties with China and Spain and if recent events were not going well he certainly would not be able to do so. The Prime Minister met with the Chinese Ambassador, Chen Xiao Dong, and the Spanish Ambassador, Ignacio Roberis, last Monday to mark the end of their work in the country. The all diplomatically agreed to strengthen their relations with Iraq in all areas and continue to support the political process and cooperate with the government to achieve security, stability and economic prosperity.

Bin Laden's Re-Branding as Iraq Base Fails

I've posed the question about the two latest messages believed to be from Osama Bin Laden which emphasise the importance of a struggle against Israel to the detriment of fighting in Iraq.

As recently as March, Iraq was key, Bin Laden stated: "Iraq is the perfect base to set up the jihad to liberate Palestine. Palestine will be restored to us, with God's permission, when we wake up from our slumber."

The word "slumber" (and his criticism of Arab rulers) is a clue as to Bin Laden's intention since this is term used against Arabs.

Also, this terminology shifts the emphasis away from Iraq, which has come to mean difficulties, to the "Palestinian question", which can attract support.

Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, stated as much:

Through its now dead agent in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, it hoped to attack Israel after establishing a base in Iraq, but the hope of establishing that base has probably failed. Al Qaeda could now be preparing its followers for a strategic failure in Iraq. It therefore needs a rallying cry and Palestine is a no-brainer.

AQ is shifting terminology to reflect a loss in Iraq.

Inkster, formerly deputy head of Britain's foreign intelligence agency MI6, adds that the loss of life proved to be high since there has been numerous complaints about too many Muslims killed in Iraq and elsewhere.

"Al-Qaeda's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is like the chief executive officer to Bin Laden's chairmanship, recently held an open day of questions on the internet," he said.

In business terms, this is a rebrand.

Moreover, in the same session, al-Zawahiri defended killing Muslim bystanders, who, he said, had died because of "unintentional error" or had been used as "shields" by al-Qaeda's enemies.

Marc Sageman, a former CIA officer and now writer on international security issues, has been trumpeting the idea of what he calls "leaderless jihad" (the title of his latest book), in which the larger debate of who is in control, a central AQ structure, or local autonomous cells.

Sageman stated: "they have been unable to project their capability outside Pakistan and Afghanistan."

None of this is intended to downplay the very real threat that AQ represents and the organization has proven to be resilient in past experience.

Groups are inspired by the leadership but not necessarily controlled by "al-Qaeda Central." It gives them strength, in that they proliferate in unknown cells, but it also leaves them vulnerable to being isolated. A study of power indicates that isolation is dangerous. It seems as if isolation would make defense stronger but it actually weakens a group.

Al Qaeda Denounces Religious Dialogue

Al Qaeda leader Abu Yahya al-Libi criticized Saudi Arabia for considering a dialogue with other faiths. King Abdullah advocated inter-faith dialogue which is a condemnation of extremism.

By God, if you don't resist heroically against this wanton tyrant ... the day will come when church bells will ring in the heart of the Arabian Peninsula. And the case of Qatar is not far away from you, stated Libi.

This is in reference to Qatar's decision to allow the opening of the first church in the U.S.-allied Gulf Arab state; next door neighbour Saudi Arabia, which adhers to Wahabism, still bans other religions from building public houses of worship in the birthplace of Islam.

There is no moderation, no rapprochement, and no collaboration between us and infidel peoples. Where do light and darkness ever meet? stated Libi.

Let them (proponents of moderation) know that Islam is the religion of the sword, he added.

Iraq Is Not Vietnam

One of the most consistent false analogies that have been made about Iraq is a comparison to Vietnam. Yet, in numerical terms, the two conflicts really do not compare well.

For example, one of the vociferous criticisms of Coalition body counts is that they are useless propaganda and similar to the false impression of imminent American victory in Vietnam. The Tet Offensive ended all hopes that the U.S. had any hopes of an achievable peace, much less a victory.

In the Iraq situation a consistent argument has been advanced stating that killing only begets more killing. The recent "body counts" of Mahdi Army fighters is a case in point.

At the eminently practical Long War Journal the low ball figure of Mahdi killed has been that 600 Mahdi Army fighters were killed since fighting broke out on March 25. The U.S. military estimates the number killed at 700 but the key here is that the Mahdi themselves estimate the number at 1,000.

Now if the Coalition were guilty of inflating figures so as to provide a false hope of success, their number should be lower than the Mahdi themselves estimate. According to the Long War Journal's Bill Roggio, an interviewee stated: “What about the martyrs?” a Mahdi battalion leader recently told a reporter. “A thousand martyrs, what did they die for?”

The Iraqi government ground down the Mahdi. Sure to lose, the Sadrists capitulated and the experience with insurgent groups is the penchent for declaring victory even after a defeat. Then, they regroup, adding more assets and live to fight again. The situation in Sadr City though is a first example that the Iraqi security forces continued the fight, the Iraqi government functioned well enough to maintain pressure, and Coalition forces re-deployed to provide a well-entrenched but much needed supportive role. This is an incredible turn around and the first hope of a functioning Iraqi state.

Numbers Tally in Iraq Demonstrates Substantial Growth

Graphic source: Bill Roggio

Despite the incredible ferocity of military power that has been unleashed the violence in Iraq has not increased this year. The extension of Coalition settlement is impressive to say the least and the interim between the height of violence and now has allowed the Iraqi security forces to make substantial strides. No one will be willing to say the path is easy but it is entirely possible that the turning point has occurred and Iraq may yet transition into a functioning state.

Daily Advance on Sadr City

The US military killed a senior member of the Mahdi Army, according US and Mahdi Army sources. Arkan Hasnawi, a senior lieutenant of the Mahdi Army commander in Sadr City, was killed in a guided rocket strike in Sadr City on May 3. The news of Hasnawi's death comes as details emerge on the senior leadership of the Mahdi Army in Baghdad and the blurring of the lines between Sadr's militia and the Special Groups.

Hasnawi was among several senior Mahdi Army leaders killed or wounded in the GLMRS strike on a Mahdi Army command and control center that was placed next to the Sadr Hospital inside Sadr City.

Operations against the Mahdi Army outside Sadr City have not abated, either. Today, US forces killed 11 Mahdi Army fighters during a series of engagements in New Baghdad, which borders Sadr City to the east. The Mahdi Army fighters were killed as part of "an ongoing operation," Multinational Forces Iraq reported. US forces also captured a Special Groups commander in the Rashid district in Baghdad

.

Cf. The Long War Journal

ل [أوس] قتل جيش عضوة كبريات من مهدي جيش, يوافق [أوس] ومهدي جيش مصادر. قتلت [أركن] [هسنوي], ملازم أوّل كبريات من مهدي جيش قائد في [سدر] مدينة, كان في يرشد صاروخ إضراب في [سدر] مدينة في شهر ماي 3. يأتي الأخبار من [هسنوي] موت بما أنّ تفصيل يظهرون على القيادة كبريات من مهدي جيش في بغداد وال يغشي من الخطوط بين [سدر] ميليشيا والمجموعة خاصّة.

[هسنوي] كان بين عدّة كبريات مهدي جيش زعيمات يقتل أو يجرح في ال [غلمرس] إضراب على مهدي جيش أمر و [كنترول سنتر] أنّ كان وضعت [نإكست تو] [سدر] مستشفى في [سدر] مدينة.

لم يخفّض عمليات ضدّ مهدي جيش خارجيّ [سدر] مدينة يتلقّى, أيضا. اليوم, [أوس] قتل قوّات 11 مهدي جيش مقاتلات أثناء [سري] الإلتزامات في بغداد جديد, أيّ يجاور [سدر] مدينة إلى الشرق. مهدي جيش قتلت مقاتلات كان كجزء "عملية جار," شركة متعدّدة الجنسيّات قوّات العراق يفاد. [أوس] على قبض قوّات أيضا خاصّة مجموعة قائد في رشيد من في بغداد.

Obama & Hillary Too Busy for Oil Prices

Fellow Democrat Patrick Leahy from Vermont held hearings on high oil prices but I know two Senators who are not interested: Obama and Hillary. While America is burning they are fiddling with delegate numbers for the nomination. Leahy stated:

Today’s witnesses represent the major, vertically integrated oil companies that, collectively, made more than $36 billion in profits in just the first quarter of this year-- $36 billion in the first three months of the year.

Leahy attacked Bush and blamed him and the Iraq war for the increases but I'm not sure that the political grandstanding will help us solve the problem much.

Leahy added:

I want to hear directly from these oil companies about causes of the rising price of oil on which Congress can act. This Committee unanimously approved Senator Kohl’s NOPEC legislation, which would put an end to artificial limits on supply by ensuring that the U.S. Government has the authority to prosecute OPEC members for collusive behavior. Seventy members of the Senate have voted for this legislation, as have 345 Members of the House. Yet this President threatened to veto it.

Leahy then asked the oil executives how they would like antitrust laws applied to them. I think a better tactic might be to just inform them that he or someone else is moving on enforcement. He preferred the slap on the wrist approach.

Leah does not seem to grasp international reality. OPEC meets regularly to dish it out on consumers and he thinks this is wrong. It does not matter. If you have someone over a barrel, literally, you don't get anywhere by whining about it. The more direct question should be why Leahy and the Senate are not acting on the problem.

Leahy identities a key problem. He states:

Do they agree that we need to crack down on speculation and manipulation in the oil commodities market? Numerous experts have testified before this Committee and others that oil prices are moving higher as a result of speculators. Investors are betting up the price of oil, and consumers are paying the bill. Increasingly, this speculation takes place in over-the-counter trading, which avoids the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, thanks to the Enron loophole.

Why is he asking their opinion? Does he seriously think they will agree and voluntarily be nice boys?

Maybe he is actually acting, since the loophole kept the CFTC blind to speculation and manipulation in the oil futures market. Last week, Congress passed the Farm Bill that would close this loophole. The President threatened to veto the legislation.

Finally, he added:

last week we were able to pass legislation calling for the Government to stop artificially inflating demand by diverting fuel to the strategic petroleum reserve. The President opposed it. Filing the SPR may have made sense when oil was $25 a barrel. At $125 a barrel, it is simply hurting consumers.

Leahy makes a tepid, fawning appeal to the oil boys to play nice as if he expects them to do so. He makes his grandstanding rhetoric against Bush seem like he has some backbone. Its a pathetic waste of time but then again, that's the Senate.

Cf. Statement of Patrick Leahy
Chairman, Senate Judiciary Committee
Hearing on “Exploring the Skyrocketing Price of Oil”
May 21, 2008