I've posed the question about the two latest messages believed to be from Osama Bin Laden which emphasise the importance of a struggle against Israel to the detriment of fighting in Iraq.
As recently as March, Iraq was key, Bin Laden stated: "Iraq is the perfect base to set up the jihad to liberate Palestine. Palestine will be restored to us, with God's permission, when we wake up from our slumber."
The word "slumber" (and his criticism of Arab rulers) is a clue as to Bin Laden's intention since this is term used against Arabs.
Also, this terminology shifts the emphasis away from Iraq, which has come to mean difficulties, to the "Palestinian question", which can attract support.
Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, stated as much:
Through its now dead agent in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, it hoped to attack Israel after establishing a base in Iraq, but the hope of establishing that base has probably failed. Al Qaeda could now be preparing its followers for a strategic failure in Iraq. It therefore needs a rallying cry and Palestine is a no-brainer.
AQ is shifting terminology to reflect a loss in Iraq.
Inkster, formerly deputy head of Britain's foreign intelligence agency MI6, adds that the loss of life proved to be high since there has been numerous complaints about too many Muslims killed in Iraq and elsewhere.
"Al-Qaeda's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is like the chief executive officer to Bin Laden's chairmanship, recently held an open day of questions on the internet," he said.
In business terms, this is a rebrand.
Moreover, in the same session, al-Zawahiri defended killing Muslim bystanders, who, he said, had died because of "unintentional error" or had been used as "shields" by al-Qaeda's enemies.
Marc Sageman, a former CIA officer and now writer on international security issues, has been trumpeting the idea of what he calls "leaderless jihad" (the title of his latest book), in which the larger debate of who is in control, a central AQ structure, or local autonomous cells.
Sageman stated: "they have been unable to project their capability outside Pakistan and Afghanistan."
None of this is intended to downplay the very real threat that AQ represents and the organization has proven to be resilient in past experience.
Groups are inspired by the leadership but not necessarily controlled by "al-Qaeda Central." It gives them strength, in that they proliferate in unknown cells, but it also leaves them vulnerable to being isolated. A study of power indicates that isolation is dangerous. It seems as if isolation would make defense stronger but it actually weakens a group.
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