McCain Lead Currently 1 Point

CNN's average of national polls shows McCain currently holds a 1-point lead over Obama at 46-45%. The average is composed of five national general election surveys: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (September 8-9), NBC/Wall Street Journal (September 6-8), American Research Group (September 6-8), Gallup (September 8-10), and Diageo/Hotline (September 8-10). It does not have a sampling error. If the polls remain at those numbers it will be an extremely close race, among the closest ever.

Al Qaeda Loss in Iraq

Graphic source: The Long War Journal

In what is probably the most fascinating set of documents yet uncovered, a number of AQ letters reveals what has become obvious in the long war community: AQ is fragmenting in Iraq. Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda's second in command, Abu Ayyub al Masri, al Qaeda in Iraq's leader, and Abu Omar al Baghdadi, the leader of al Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq exchanged letters which were intercepted by Coalition forces. The letters reveal that AQ's senior leadership has lost confidence in AQ's leadership in Iraq. Perhaps even more revealing is a graphic revealing the loss of territory by AQ between 2006 up to the present. A picture is worth a thousand words.

Most Recently Conducted Polls: McCain Even, a Victory of Sorts

Several recent presidential polls are interesting to consider. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted in Michigan among registered voters calculated Barack Obama at 45 percent, John McCain 42 percent, and Ralph Nader 6 percent. Of particular pain for McCain is that in southwestern Michigan-—which Bush won overwhelmingly four years ago-—Obama is up by 9 points. A similar poll in Missouri among registered voters showed McCain at 48 percent and Obama at 44 percent. In New Hampshire among registered voters Obama garnished 48 percent and McCain 43 percent. In Virginia among registered voters McCain took 49 percent and Obama 43 percent.

Score: Obama 2, McCain 2.

The most striking aspect of this, admittedly unusual presidential election, is that Obama has not struck the killer blow. It seems closest to the Carter defeat at the hands of Reagan, the significant difference is in their respective parties. However, a hugely unpopular incumbent President, Carter, similar to Bush, lost overwhelmingly to Reagan. Obama should be delivering the knock-out blow to McCain as a third term of Bush but this has not happened. McCain is in the running or beating Obama in the polls. As some have noted, Obama might not possess the toughness required of a President. He can not deliver.

Why I Take Middle Eastern Opinion Polls With a Grain of Salt

I know the conventional wisdom is to take the results of polls fairly seriously. On the other hand, bear in mind the off-base things that people believe. For example, Arab nations still suspect that it was U.S. in cahoots with Israel who were behind the 9/11 attacks. There is no credible evidence that such a thing actually occurred but the facts do not trouble the irrational and misguided. Nonetheless, when poll after poll shows how America's place in the world is diminished, I do not lose much sleep over it. As the cliche states it: consider the source.

Many Medieval people believed the planets revolved around the Earth but such wishful thinking did not make it so. Likewise, many Middle Easteners think there is a conspiracy against Muslims.

The San Diego Tribune reported one such statement: “Look, I don't believe what your governments and press say. It just can't be true,” stated Ahmed Issab, 26, a Syrian engineer who lives and works in the United Arab Emirates. “Why would they tell the truth? I think the U.S. organized this so that they had an excuse to invade Iraq for the oil.” A person intelligent enough to receive a decent education, a scientist no less, and an engineer to boot; yet, Mr. Issab is not discerning enough to understand that the U.S. and Israel and not involved in a devil's pact to bring down Islam? I do not buy it.

Isn't there a way to end the double standard against Americans? I mean, we are often described as the ugly Americans because we do not understand the rest of the world; on the other hand, any nonsense that the media reports on from the Middle East is treated with the utmost respect. Why can't someone simply ask for evidence? What evidence is there that a grand conspiracy exists between these two nations? At least that would be the scientific way to approach a controversial issue.

The same Times article noted: "Americans might better understand the region, experts here said, if they simply listen to what people are saying – and try to understand why – rather than taking offense." The point they make is that Americans need to understand, yet, any half-baked notion arising from the Middle East is accepted uncritically. The fact that the foreign policy of the U.S. and Israel coincides is evidence of nothing more than what it is: two nations view their self-interest, for a time, similarly. These things change, they have before and they will again.

Offensive prejudice, on the part of Middle Easteners, is accepted uncritically and embraced as an authentic voice of the people. This is wrong-headed. The only way America was able to stare down and defeat prejudice, such as lynching, was through education, a more active Justice Department, and federal intervention. It helps no one not to ask Middle Easterners to learn more accurate information about the U.S.

British Muslims Convicted of World's Biggest Terrorist Atrocity Planning

Abdulla Ahmed Ali, 27, Assad Sarwar, 28, and Tanvir Hussain, 27, three British Muslims were found guilty of conspiracy to murder. The world's biggest terrorist atrocity plot is the one responsible for the banning of liquids of airline flights up to the present. An unknown AQ associate, planned to conceal explosives within 500ml Oasis or Lucozade bottles; thereafter, the al-Qaeda cell members in London planned to detonate a series of liquid-based bombs disguised as soft drinks. The suicide bombers intended to blow up several transatlantic airliners bound for America in a simultaneous attack which would have caused an even greater loss of life than 9/11. Other possible targets included the skyscrapers of Canary Wharf, nuclear power stations, and oil terminals.

The jury was unable to reach verdicts on conspiracy to murder charges relating to four other defendants: Ibrahim Savant, Arafat Khan, Waheed Zaman and Umar Islam; they now face a retrial.

An eighth man, Mohammed Gulzar, was found not guilty on all counts, including conspiracy to murder.

Police said the plot was drawn up in Pakistan with detailed instructions passed to Ali during frequent trips to its lawless border with Afghanistan. In a suicide video Ali warned the British public to expect "floods of martyr operations" that would leave body parts scattered in the streets.

Zawahiri Admits Defeat in Iraq

Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al-Qaeda's deputy leader, stated in his latest missive that Iran was "collaborating" with the US in its occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq. The video entitled "Assessment of Seven Years of Crusades," was produced by AQ's media arm, Al-Sahab. The 90-minute video also attacks Lebanese, Pakistani and Afghan leaders. The interesting aspect of the message is that it is an admission of AQAM's failure in Iraq. Of course Iran and the U.S. did not collaborate but by attacking fellow insurgents, Zawahiri is admitting defeat in Iraq, something that the U.S. surge handled by early this year spring and at the same time Zawahiri announced was critical to AQ's aims. The recruitment of young people and children that Zawahiri announced at the time did not come to pass.

Zawahiri exacerbates already troublesome relationships with Iraqi Shia clerics and the Lebanese Shia militant group, Hezbollah. He stated: "Hezbollah has not obtained any victory in Lebanon against Israel." Otherwise, the tape is just more of the same with the added note regarding the importance of Algeria. The tape also unwittingly points to increasing tensions within worldwide insurgent movements.

Infrastructure Issues: Not to Mention Attacks

One of the biggest concerns with our aging infrastructure is that the demands placed on the systems are too great. Coupled with possible insurgent attacks, Americans are really susceptible to increasing issues with transportation. The problem was illustrated graphically with the recent Federal Aviation Administration's traffic management computer system issue which caused flight delays at U.S. airports.

The delays were largely centered around airports in the northeastern U.S. which is among our oldest and most prone systems.

CNN.com reported that all major U.S. airports were affected by the computer problem at a facility near Atlanta. Problems processing data in Atlanta meant that flight-plan information had to be routed through another facility in Salt Lake City.

Now, if you were seeking to create havoc on American airlines, where would you strike?

Those two sites handle all flight plans for commercial and general flights in the U.S.

August Order of Battle in Iraq

Graphic source: The Long War Journal

The August Order of Battle in Iraq demonstrates progress in increasing responsibilities for native Iraqi elements as the U.S. plans to draw down its troops.

Pakistan Makes a Step Towards Democracy: Zardari

Nearly a year after assassins killed Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, her widower, Asif Ali Zardari, won the country's presidential election and hailed his triumph as a victory for democracy. "I feel democracy has been vindicated," Zardari told CNN. Zardari had been the front-runner in the race to replace former President Pervez Musharraf, who was forced to resign last month. The pro-American Zardari will rule a nuclear power threatened by the Islamic Taliban militants and economic turmoil. Conditions are extremely difficult currently but if Zardari can support the U.S. efforts to curtail Islamism the world will be a better place. The U.S. can possibly access the areas where the central Pakistani government is too weak to control.

Pakistan Cuts its Own Throat

Supposedly our ally, Pakistan, has reportedly blocked a major fuel supply route for Western forces in Afghanistan in response to a raid by US forces in northwest Pakistan earlier this week. Al-Qaeda and pro-Taliban fighters live in sanctuaries in northwest Pakistan's ethnic Pashtun tribal areas, where they organise attacks in Afghanistan. The U.S. can not afford to sit idly by while its troops are being attacked. And, in these lawless regions, the central Pakistani government is hardly in control of the regions, thus, Pakistan does not enjoy sovereignty in the region. The U.S. has every right to protect its troops any way it can.

Afghan Support to Increase, Eventually

With the developing violence and the increasing numbers of foreign insurgents, some of whom are fleeing the losing AQAM campaigns in Iraq, which is not a bad thing, are pouring into Afghanistan, the U.S. will launch a "very aggressive" winter campaign according to Army Maj. Gen. Jeffrey J. Schloesser, commander of the 101st Airborne Division task force in eastern Afghanistan. The unprecedented winter offensive, and the first major action since 2002, will be coupled with a development drive that will provide some $479 million to help employ young Afghan males on local development projects. Due to a lack of troops, the U.S. is pressed to hold territory and protect the people against the Taliban and other foreign invaders. American military commanders in Afghanistan have been pleading for more troops for more than a year. At least 10,000 more troops, about two brigade combat teams, are needed in Afghanistan, U.S. commanders have stated. About 33,000 U.S. troops are fighting in Afghanistan, including 19,000 under Schloesser's command and 14,000 assigned to the NATO command. Both Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, indicated that it is unlikely that additional troops will be deployed to Afghanistan until troop reductions are made in Iraq next spring. The unusual winter campaigns have been provoked by U.S. intelligence reports which indicate that many of the 7,000 to 11,000 insurgents in Afghanistan are planning to remain there over the winter.

Celebrating Jihad

On 14 August 2008 the Islamist group Jamatud Dawa - the new name of the banned militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, led by Professor Hafiz Muhammad Saeed - held a conference in Lahore, billed as the "Defend Pakistan Conference."

At the opening of the conference, a duo, Hafiz Abdul Wadud Hasan and Hafiz Abdur Rauf, sang the following song, described by the organizers as the "jihadi tarana (anthem)."

The song is available at the Jamatud Dawa website.

"Jihad will continue till the Day of Judgement; jihad will never stop.

(Jihad jari rahega ta qayamat
Jihad hargiz naheen rukega)

It has forced oppressor's head to bow; it will end oppression and torture.

(Is se zalim ka sar jhuka hai
Is se zulm-o-sitam mitega)

Jihad is the order of Allah; jihad is the path of the Prophet.

(Jihad farman hai Khuda ka
Jihad rasta hai Mustafa ka)

Jihad is the assurance of loyalty; every true Muslim will be loyal.

(Jihad paiman hai wafa ka
Her ek momin wafa karega)

Jihad is mentioned in the Koran; jihad is the eternity of faith.

(Jihad Qur'an mein likha hai
Jihad Eiman ki baqaa hai)

This is the Will [of God], this is [His] happiness; no one can change it.

(Yahi masheeat, yahi raza hai
Jise na koi badal saekga)

Only Jihad has always cut the head of evil from the earth

(Zameen se fitno ka sar hamesha
Jihad hi se qalam huwa hai)

If jihad has the power in it; mischief will have no substance.

(Rahega dam kham jihad mein to
Fasad mein dam naheen rahega)

Jihad alone gives voice; respect comes to the helpless.

(Jihad hi se zaban milti
Hai aan milti hai bekason ko)

Jihad will make the gods of falsehood naked.

(Jihad jhooti khudaion ko
Ulat kar be abroo karega)

Avoidance of jihad has given birth to subjugation.

(Jihad se ijtniab hi ne
Ghulamion ko janam diya hai)

Enemies of Jihad will be dishonoured; they will sink into an unending abyss.

(Jihad dushman zaleel hoker
Athaah pasti mein ja girega)

Jihad is the protection of the Ummah; jihad is the symbol of self-respect.

(Jihad millat ki pasbani
Jihad ghairat ki hai nishani)

Jihad is a Revealed gift; only the lucky ones will get it.

(Jihad tuhfa hai aasmani
Naseeb walon ko hi milega)

Jihad destroys terror; jihad brings good news.

(Jihad dehshat mitane walaa
Jihad muzde sunane walaa)

Jihad teaches how to live; only those will live who learn to die.

(Jihad jeena sikhane walaa
Jo marna seekhega wo jiyegaa)

Jihad is the state of ecstasy; jihad is the army of the brave.

(Jihad alam hai bekhudi ka
Jihad Lashkar bahaduri ka)

Jihad is the flag of truth; Never has it bowed, nor will it bow.

(Jihad parcham hai rasti ka
Kabhi jhuka, na kabhi jhukega)

Jihad is the kingdom of faith; jihad is the depth of emotions.

(Jihad eiman ki hai shahi
Jihad jazbon ki hai bepanahi)

Jihad is the destruction of heretics; those who fight against it will die.

(Jihad alhad ki tabahi
Ise mitayega jo mitega)

Jihad is to stand for truth; not go back once you have taken the step.

(Jihad Afazan haq per hai datna
Qadam barhaker ne peechhe hanta)

Jihad is the Eagle's attack; falsehood will be victim.

(Jihad shaheen ka jhapatna
Shikar batil bana rahega)"

Cf. http://memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD204208

IED Found Near the Capitol

Years ago the famous American novelist Sinclair Lewis wrote a well-known novel about it can't happen here. This type of thinking should be dispelled as a man was arrested near the Capitol when an IED, a rifle, and ammunition was allegedly found in his Jeep. The man stopped to ask police for directions near the Capitol building at about 11 a.m. EDT Friday, at the intersection of 2nd and Independence Avenue Southeast. The alert officer responding noticed a rifle case on the car seat and inspected the jeep and discovered the contraband. Library of Congress employees near where the jeep was stopped were evacuated as a precaution, and several roads are closed while police continue their investigation. The IED is on its way to the FBI facility in Quantico, Va., for analysis. Kudos to the alert officer protecting Washington.

Malaysia Works to Make Sea Lanes Safer

Malaysia is demonstrating a forthright policy by deploying its navy to Somalia. I believe that many nations should be more involved in security issues, especially those that occur within their regional domain and Malaysia has done just that. Malaysia is sending three navy ships to the coast of Somalia to protect merchant vessels from piracy. The ships will begin patrolling in the Gulf of Aden in the next few days. The seas off Somalia, close to busy shipping routes and therefore of direct interest to Malaysia, have some of the highest rates of piracy in the world. The country has been without a functioning central government for 17 years and has suffered from continual civil strife. If only China and India would get more involved, and support Malaysia, the piracy issue could very well be eliminated.

McCain Down and Out?

It would be extremely difficult to count out John McCain, despite the media's penchent for burying him prematurely, after watching his acceptance speech at the Republican Convention. He was conciliatory, humble, if feisty in his closing arguments which asked people to fight with him for America. He is a guy who you really can't consider out of the running when he quite obviously is just the guy who he says he is. While he does not have Obama's smoothness in the prepared speech, there really is no effective counter once he relates his narrative about having both arms broken and depending on two fellow prisoners of war to feed him. How do you counter a story like that? He has a powerful narrative of service and dedication to country. He is not out of the running just yet.

Chrome Makes Impressive Debut

The widely bally-hooed Google Inc.'s new Chrome browser grabbed 1% of the browser market in its first day out in public. U.S.-based tracking company Net Applications Inc., and Irish vendor StatCounter, placed Chrome's total market share at around 1%, less than 24 hours after the browser's launch, passing rivals such as Opera and Netscape in the process.

Palin Introduces Herself to America

Palin accomplished major goals in her speech at the Republican Convention. She came across as a fighter, praised her party's nominee, attacked her opponent, actually, an indictment of Obama's lack of achievement, and spoke dynamically as a down-to-earth woman and mother. She should help McCain in crucial middle America states and is an asset. The surprise choice of Palin will help McCain appeal to women and broaden the appeal of the Republican party. It was a good choice. She has only had less than a week to prepare which is revealing. She is not a studied and rehearsed vice-presidential nominee. We are viewing the real deal.

Google Browses

Graphic source: Google

Google finally launched its own Web browser which ends years of speculation that the search company had designs on the browser market. The new browser, Chrome, was released and thus the company now competes against Microsoft, Mozilla, Opera, and Apple, all of which distribute browsers of their own. Chrome, still in beta, is only available in a version that runs under Windows XP or Windows Vista although others are fast at work expanding the shine of Chrome.

Anbar Now in Iraqi Hands

Indicative of the increasing well-being of the U.S. effort in Iraq is that the United States and the Multi-National Force-Iraq is transferring security in Anbar Province over to Iraqi responsibility. Anbar is the eleventh province to be transferred to Iraqi security responsibility since the first province transferred to Government of Iraqi security control in July 2006. The transfer of security responsibility in Anbar is significant because it is geographically the largest province in Iraq and borders three countries.

Upcoming Attractions

Now back online you can look forward to upcoming attractions: Joe Biden for President, updates on glaciers in Alaska, Montana, and global warming, review of Cirque du Soleil, the Beatles "LOVE," Las Vegas Show, and many other new features. Stay tuned.