Kilcullen on Afghanistan

David Kilcullen, former Australian army officer and anthropology Ph.D, who has advised the American, British, and Australian governments, was one of General Petraeus’s strategic thinkers regarding the Iraq surge; Kilcullen is now a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

In a recent statement in the New Yorker he addressed four main areas of concern in Afghanistan which I quote here:

we are being both out-fought and out-governed for four basic reasons:

(1) We have failed to secure the Afghan people. That is, we have failed to deliver them a well-founded feeling of security. Our failing lies as much in providing human security—economic and social wellbeing, law and order, trust in institutions and hope for the future—as in protection from the Taliban, narco-traffickers, and terrorists. In particular, we have spent too much effort chasing and attacking an elusive enemy who has nothing he needs to defend—and so can always run away to fight another day—and too little effort in securing the people where they sleep. (And doing this would not take nearly as many extra troops as some people think, but rather a different focus of operations).

(2) We have failed to deal with the Pakistani sanctuary that forms the political base and operational support system for the Taliban, and which creates a protective cocoon (abetted by the fecklessness or complicity of some elements in Pakistan) around senior al Qaeda and Taliban leaders.

(3) The Afghan government has not delivered legitimate, good governance to Afghans at the local level—with the emphasis on good governance. In some areas, we have left a vacuum that the Taliban has filled, in other areas some of the Afghan government’s own representatives have been seen as inefficient, corrupt, or exploitative.

(4) Neither we nor the Afghans are organized, staffed, or resourced to do these three things (secure the people, deal with the safe haven, and govern legitimately and well at the local level)—partly because of poor coalition management, partly because of the strategic distraction and resource scarcity caused by Iraq, and partly because, to date, we have given only episodic attention to the war.

So, bottom line—we need to do better, but we also need a rethink in some key areas starting with security and governance.

Cf. http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/georgepacker/2008/11/kilcullen-on-af.html

Arabs Already Asking for Money From the Elect

"The League of Arab States should take an increased role and be recruited to provide some services in exchange for increased foreign aid development in education and health-care arenas for their impoverished people."

Arsalan Iftikhar, an international human rights lawyer, founder of www.TheMuslimGuy.com, and contributing editor for Islamica Magazine in Washington.

Arabs are already asking Americans for money; the Elect is expected to respond.

The Cost of Havoc: AQ's Price of Terror

The price of terror

Terrorism, as one Treasury official noted, is “not a rich man’s sport.”

An analysis of some of the most notable attacks show that al-Qaida and others it has inspired have spent between $5,000 and $500,000 to carry out the attacks. Although the numbers in most cases is an approximation—and may not include all costs, such as training—they serve as an indicator of how little is needed to get the world’s attention.

Michael Sheehan, the former counterterrorism director for the New York Police Department, says the department has long been guided by a “4 x 10” rule – “10 men + 10 weeks + $10,000 = 10,000-pound bomb.”

This summary bears out the rule.

— 1993 – World Trade Center, New York – approximately $31,000 to cover the costs of bomb components, rentals of the garage used to assemble the bomb and storage lockers for components, telephone calls to and from the Middle East, and plane tickets for travel to and from the United States. Six dead.

— 1998 – U.S Embassy Attacks, Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania – less than $50,000 on bomb parts, rooms at a seedy downtown hotel, where the bombing was planned, and on an expensive suburban villa where the bomb was put together as well as satellite phones and laptops. 241 dead.

— 2000 – USS Cole, Aden, Yemen -- $5,000 to $10,000 to cover the cost of explosives, and inflatable boats as well as a camera to record the event. 17 dead.

— 2001 – September 11 attacks, New York and Washington -- $400,000 to $500,000 spent primarily for flight training, travel, and living expenses (such as housing, food, cars, and auto insurance). 2,975 dead.

— 2002 – Nightclub bombings, Bali, Indonesia -- $75,000 to $80,000 spent on explosives and living expenses for the bombers as well as for vehicles used to transport the bombs. Al-Qaida provided the bulk of the funding. 202 dead.

— 2003 – Attacks on two Jewish synagogues, British consulate and HSBC banking offices, Istanbul, Turkey -- $50,000 again spent primarily on the bomb and bombers, but also on vehicles and training suicide bombers. Also financed primarily by al-Qaida’s central operations. 57 dead.

— 2004 – Commuter train bombings, Madrid -- $10,000 mainly to purchase bomb components, rent safe houses and purchase cell phone detonators. 191 dead.

— 2005 – Underground Attacks, London – No more than $14,000, mostly for bomb components as well as travel and training. 53 dead.

Sources: United Nations, Central Intelligence Agency, US Department of Justice, 9-11 Commission.

Cf. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27644191/

Note on Microsoft China Research

A review of mine, marking the 10th anniversary of Microsoft Research Asia (MSRA), will be published.

Another American Terrorist Arrested

An American, Tarek Mehanna, lied to the FBI two years ago during a legitimate terrorism investigation. Mehanna, who has a doctorate from the Massachusetts College of Pharmacy, was arrested as he was about to flee the country to start a new job in Saudi Arabia. Mehanna was questioned about the whereabouts and activities of Daniel J. Maldonado, a former trainee of an Al Qaeda terrorist camp dedicated to overthrow the Somali government. Maldonado was captured while on the lam and a cooperating witness secretly recorded conversations with Mehanna, who worried about lying to the FBI, according to the affidavit. Maldonado was arrested in January 2007 as he fled Somalia. He became the first US citizen charged with participating in terrorist activities in Somalia. Last year, he pleaded guilty in federal court in Houston to receiving training at a terrorist camp in Somalia alongside Al Qaeda members. He admitted training to use firearms and explosives as part of an effort to help a group called the Islamic Courts Union overthrow the Somali government and install an Islamic state. Maldonado is serving a 10-year prison term.

Catholic Church Drops ACORN Funding

November 12th, 2008
Catholic Church drops ACORN funding

By Drew Griffin and Kathleen Johnston
CNN Special Investigations Unit

(CNN) — The Roman Catholic Church is cutting off funds to the community organizing group ACORN, citing complaints about its voter registration drives in the November 4 election as part of the reason.

The Catholic Campaign for Human Development froze contributions to ACORN, the Association of Community Organizing Groups for Reform Now, in June after the group revealed one of its founders had embezzled nearly $1 million from the group. This week, as the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops met in Baltimore, Maryland, the campaign’s chairman said it was cutting all ties with the group.

The CCHD has donated more than $7.3 million to ACORN-related projects over the past decade, including $40,000 to an ACORN chapter in Las Vegas, Nevada, that was raided before the election in an investigation into fraudulent voter registration forms. Among other questionable documents, the ACORN chapter submitted registration forms for members of the Dallas Cowboys football team.

Cf. http://cnnwire.blogs.cnn.com/

Our Next Entangling Alliance

The Founders warned us about getting involved and trying to slay the world's monsters and Americans followed this wisdom for years. In more recent times however we have forgotten this simple admonition because of the pulling at our heartstrings or a favored project or two.

The next entangling alliance that will snag the Elect's administration is most likely to arise from Africa. In one of numerous wrong-headed moves former Secretary of Defense Rumsfield committed us to Africom and the Elect is not likely to disband the extension of an American sphere of influence.

Not surprisingly human rights groups are already clamoring for the Elect to get involved in an area that has no payback for Americans, but a great deal of potential blowback from, in Sudan's troubled Darfur region, where government forces have waged a bloody war against militias that some international critics have characterized as genocide. Either this fiasco or one very similar will plague us during the Elect's administration.

Sudan President Omar al-Bashir has agreed to al cease-fire with rebels, which could give the U.S. an opening if we would be foolish enough to take the bait.

Darfur activist John Prendergast's ENOUGH organization is a project of the Center for American Progress, a Democratic think tank run by Obama's transition co-chairman, John Podesta.

During the presidential campaign, Obama called the crisis in Darfur "a collective stain on our national and human conscience" and said he would make ending it a priority on "day one."

That sounds like a commitment to me; we are doomed to repeat mistakes of getting involved in the region as before.

There is no legitimate American interest, safety, or concern in the region.

We can do simple things that do not further entangle us in other people's issue. The Elect's administration can strengthen the current arms embargo and continue to support investigations by the International Criminal Court into war crimes by al-Bashir, leading Sudanese officials and certain members of rebel groups. Other than lead a moral effort, our duty is done to the region.

The primary responsibility should be borne by China, which has vast oil interests in Sudan. Other than unnecessarily provoking the Chinese Americans do not need the additional burden of Darfur.

New FDR?

How did FDR get us out of the Great Depression? He put people to work.

Will this happen again? I doubt it.

Americans Okay One-Party Rule

In a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey 59% of those questioned think that Democratic control of both the executive and legislative branches will be good for the country, with 38% saying that such one-party control will be bad.

Paul, Congress, and A Little Common Sense

"Since the new alignment of political power offers no real change, we will remain on the same track without even a pretense of slowing the growth of government. With the new administration we can expect things to go from bad to worse."

From time to time we hear some common sense from Congress and this is one such example. Ron Paul has noted publicly what readers have seen on this blog. The change candidate offers no change.

The Republicans strayed so far from their core values that they must earn back the trust of the American people. The Republicans were given power and instead of acting in a fiscally responsible manner they spent as much as if they were Democrats. According to Paul the core values include:

• Limited government power

• A balanced budget

• Personal liberty

• Strict adherence to the Constitution

• Sound money

• A strong defense while avoiding all undeclared wars

• No nation-building and no policing the world

The Republic will not be restored in the next four years but "the need for it will be greater than ever," said Paul.

On a hopeful note Paul added:

In the past two years, I found that when the young people heard the message of liberty, they overwhelmingly responded favorably, fully realizing the failure of the status quo and the need to once again endorse a system of self reliance, personal responsibility, sound money, and a non-interventionist foreign policy while rejecting the cradle-to-grave nanny state all based on the rule of law and the Constitution.

The alternative development is folly.

Paul said: "The march toward a dictatorial powerful state is now in double time."

Kenya Celebrates Their President

Graphic source: Time

Obama's Kenyan relatives, including his step-grandmother Sarah Obama (center top), party in Kogelo village, Kenya, after celebrating their victory in the U.S. elections. Kenya has reason to be proud of their achievement.

Skeptical German Voice of Reason on the Elect

Up to 8 out of 10 West Europeans would have voted for Obama, which points to a religious rather than political phenomenon. The way they see it, George W. Bush is a one-man axis of evil, and Obama the redeemer: "Deliver us, for thine is the kingdom . . ." Europeans want to love America again, and they imagine that a simple act of exorcism (called "elections") will rid them of the curse. But politics is not about redemption. Obama is not what West Europeans dream he is: polite, social-democratic and pacific. In other words, more European than American. Will the Euroswooners still love Obama when he presses them for more troops in Afghanistan and real sanctions on Iran?

Josef Joffe, Journalist and political scientist

Jimmy Redux

Abysmal former President

has promises from the Elect to pursue his failed foreign policy.

Citi JPMorgan Chase: One Hand Washes the Elect

Two banks will helpfully keep people in their homes. At least, that will be the party line but let us look a bit deeper than that.

Sharia compliant Citi will modify $20 billion in home loans in a new program aimed at homeowners who haven't defaulted yet which could help 130,000 mortgage borrowers stay in their homes. This sounds all well and good.

The news follows similar initiatives announced by other banks. In particular I was interested to discover that JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) was another bank which like Citi heralded an enhanced housing rescue effort. JPMorgan Chase's goal is to rescue 400,000 borrowers.

The Citi (C, Fortune 500) effort, dubbed the Citi Homeownership Assistance Program, targets 500,000 Citi borrowers. CitiMortgages CEO Sanjiv Das said he expects that more than a quarter of these people will seek assistance, with mortgages worth about $20 billion.

For borrowers who have yet to default, Citi will freeze or reduce interest rates, extend the lifetime of the loan, or even reduce the loan principal. This lowering of the interest rate is typical of Islamic financing.

Since the banks do not know how well they can do they will need the cooperation of the government. The bottom line is that the bank programs won't be nearly as effective as any massive foreclosure prevention effort that may yet be implemented by the U.S. government.

And there is a possibility that such a program may yet emerge. Congress already enacted its Hope for Homeowners initiative, which will allow borrowers to refinance their mortgages into loans backed by the Federal Housing Authority. Now there is talk of a new $50 billion plan that could bail out as many as 3 million homeowners.

The selling point is that the bank programs do not cost the taxpayers anything so who could object?

JPMorgan Chase expands their housing rescue plan and will put a moratorium on foreclosures until its new program can be implemented in about 90 days. The bank will hire and train more staff to handle the added caseload that the plan will generate. JP Morgan Chase expects to process 400,000 families who will keep their homes during the next two years by working out $70 billion worth of loans. To handle the challenge, the bank will add 300 new counselors, for a total of 2,500, and opening 24 new regional counseling centers.

In the financial meltdown there are companies that are prospering and adding staff to handle the additional load. To be successful in their endeavor though, they will need the assistance of someone in the government, someone on the inside, someone whose campaign they supported with significant donations.

I am just speculating but I wonder if both Citi and JPMorgan Chase have found their man in Washington D.C.

Actually, both companies were noted in a recent 7 November blog post documenting just how much money they contributed to the President-elect:

JPMorgan Chase & Co. $581,460

JP Morgan Chase & Co is one of the nation’s leading financial services firms, offering commercial and consumer banking and credit services, securities brokering and financial consulting. Through its subsidiary Chase Bank, the company is one of the top consumer credit card issuers in the country. As expected, the firm has lobbied heavily on legislation that would affect the nation’s financial industry, including bankruptcy reform and banking deregulation. In 2002, federal investigators launched a probe into the firm’s relationship with former energy giant Enron. Prior to the energy firm’s collapse, JP Morgan Chase had been one of the company’s biggest financial backers.

Citigroup Inc. $581,216

Citigroup is the world’s second largest financial services firm, with $1 trillion in assets. One of the company’s subsidiaries is brokerage firm Salomon Smith Barney, which has been plagued with lawsuits and government investigations into its financing of bankrupt Enron and ailing WorldCom. In 1998, Citigroup’s lobbying helped repeal a federal law that prevented banks from getting into other businesses, allowing the company to acquire an insurance firm. Citigroup continues to lobby on a number of issues, including financial privacy, bankruptcy reform and terrorism reinsurance.

People can stay in their homes, thanks to the banks, and to their man in Washington, bought and paid for.

Additional Challenge to Election

Another challenge to the latest election has surfaced.

Obama's 1984

Graphic source: Patriot Brigade Talk Radio Network

Original wording

Graphic source: Change.gov

Revised

The newly launched official website of President-Elect Obama, Change.gov, originally announced that Obama would “require” all middle school through college students to participate in community service programs; however, after numerous objections the wording was revised, and softened, in an excellent example of a 1984-like change.

The language sparked a revival of the much-publicized video of marching Obama youth and Obama’s “civilian national security force,” which the candidate said in July would be just as powerful and well-funded as the U.S. military.

Elect Gitmo Guy Expounds Legalistically

"I am not going to give a time certain because I think what we have to do is evaluate all those who are still being held in Gitmo. . . . We have to put in place appropriate plans to make sure they are tried, convicted and punished to the full extent of the law, and that's going to require, I think, a review of the existing cases, which I have not had the opportunity to do."

Obama, 10 November 2008

Huh? What does "time certain" mean? We have to evaluate. No kidding. We need to have "appropriate plans." Hmmm, deep. What plan did you have in mind? Oh yes, and slap them on the wrist with the law. Think that will work, eh? What arrogance, you need to personally review these cases and make a reasoned, legal argument. That, my friends, is hubris to the extreme. American law means nothing to our enemies, nor should it, since they are serving God. Man's law is chimera. Yet, the Americans persist in viewing terrorism as a law enforcement issue.

As noted in a perceptive essay:

"Liberal legalism has delegitimized tactics and brutalities that once were accepted, but this delegitimization has occurred only in context of fundamental security and dominance of Western powers."

Professor R. K. Betts, Political Science Quarterly

The U.S. tried the liberal legalistic approach during the Clinton regime and we were attacked consistently. Now that we have a new player on the field the same old tactic will not work again. But, so far, what are left with? The latest indication is that we will work with the same flawed tools to ensure more legal rights for people who seek to kill Americans based on their understanding of God's higher dictates. It will not work. It did not work before, it will not work again.

Country At An All Time Pessimistic Low

All of 16% of those questioned in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey stated that things are going well; That is about as low as things have gotten. 83% of those polled say things are going badly which is an all-time high. That high pessimist rate is higher than 1992, when George, "It's the economy, stupid,: more than 1980, when Carter was sacked for disappointing the country, and more than 1975, after Watergate and the Nixon pardon.

I am not expecting a miracle or an FDR. We do not produce that kind of leadership in America anymore. We are producing politicians who are receiving despicably high rates of campaign contributions.

Obama Gaffes in First Foreign Policy Conversation

In his first foreign policy discussion, good thing it was not a critical conversation, Obama misled the Polish President, President Lech Kaczynski. Obama told Kaczynski that he intends to continue plans for a missile shield in eastern Europe. If this is true, and this was the public announcement, this would be interpreted as a hard line against Russia. Russia has been infuriated by U.S. plans for the missile-defense installation, which includes basing missile interceptors in Poland. The interceptor rockets would be linked to an air-defense radar system in the Czech Republic. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned this week that Russian missiles will be deployed against the planned system. "The Iskander missile system will be deployed in Kaliningrad region to neutralize, when necessary, the missile shield," Medvedev said. "We are also planning to use the resources of the Russian naval fleet for these purposes." Good thing there were no actual missiles involved. Denis McDonough, Obama's senior foreign policy adviser, had to reverse the understanding that Kaczynski had. Obama has made "no commitment" to plans for a missile defense program in eastern Europe.

This is the first substantive conversation with a foreign entity and Obama has already been vague and unclear, thus, annoying the already aggressive Russians. Obama better learn on the job quickly before serious issues arise because of his lack of experience.

U.S. Treasury Promotes Islamic Finance

The U.S. Treasury is using American tax dollars to teach 'Islamic Finance 101.' The program is "designed to help inform the policy community about Islamic financial services, which are an increasingly important part of the global financial industry."

The Treasury Department has collaborated with Harvard University's Islamic Finance Project to coordinate the event.

Some speakers include Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Neel Kashkari, senior adviser to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Jr.; Harvard Business School professor Samuel Hayes; Mahmoud El-Gamal, chair of Islamic economics, finance and management at Rice University and Islamic finance adviser to the Treasury Department; Sarah Bell of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Yusuf Talal DeLorenzo, Shariah adviser and Islamic scholar; Michael McMillan, chair of the Islamic Legal Forum at the American Bar Association and professor of Islamic finance; and Rushdi Siddiqui, global director for the Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes and vigorous advocate for Islamic finance.

Islamic finance is a system of banking consistent with the principles of Shariah, or Islamic law.

Islamic finance has reached $800 billion by mid-2007 and growing at more than 15 percent each year. Wall Street now features an Islamic mutual fund and an Islamic index. Oddly of course, though, the U.S. may be the first country that funds anti-American terrorists who are often financially supported through U.S. investments; the U.S. funds its own enemy.

In financial Jihad, America is losing the financial war on terror because Wall Street embraces a subversive enemy ideology on one hand and providing government and corporate life support to state sponsors of terrorism as well. Islamic finance, or "Shariah-Compliant Finance," is a "modern-day Trojan horse" infiltrating the U.S. Shariah is a repressive doctrine that regulates every aspect of life for Muslims, and has already been proposed in Britain, ultimately, it could change American life and laws. The three nations that rule 100% by Shariah law, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan, are among the most horrific human rights abusers in the world.