Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama.
Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.
Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point.
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.”
The economy is pathetic; Obummer loses here decidedly.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.
The stimulus was a complete bust; health care rationing will go down to defeat since it is unconstitutional. Loss for Obummer.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.
The Occupy movement reflects social unrest from the Left; they oppose Obummer, the TEA party has been defeating Republican and Democratic candidates all over the country; this may be a factor in one of Lichtman's other points, Third Party challenge. You pick which category you want it in but in either case Obummer loses.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.
Has he heard of the unfolding, even as we speak, Fast and Furious fiasco? Obummer just implicated himself in the scandal by invoking Executive Privilege, previously Obummer himself has been untainted by the fiasco. He just implicated himself in this unfolding scandal. In addition, the national security leaks also involve Obummer, a clear loss here.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.”
This is going to be mixed; Romney clearly beats Obummer on the economy which is the major consideration in this election.
Obama wins, according to Lichtman, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection; however, after a consideration of why Lichtman is wrong, the keys show five for Obummer, and eight against.
Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012