There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January 2007. The steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now, and overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks. Coalition forces, working with Iraqi forces, tribal elements, and some Sunni insurgents, have reduced al-Qa’ida in Iraq’s (AQI) capabilities, restricted its freedom of movement, and denied it grassroots support in some areas. However, the level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq’s sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively. There have been modest improvements in economic output, budget execution, and government finances but fundamental structural problems continue to prevent sustained progress in economic growth and living conditions.
The conclusion is to stay the course:
We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent AQI from establishing a safehaven would erode security gains achieved thus far.
On this report, an interesting comment was made:
I . . . want to mention a common mentality I've noticed in Americans. They're angry at Bush, the administration, etc. and believe they're incompetent, liars and crooks. Without touching that subject, let me say that whatever you believe they may have done, you must not let it cloud your judgments of what's happening NOW. However sincerely angry you may be at their past actions (and inactions) you should be cautious in how much you let it effect your assessment of what they are doing now. During April I went home on leave and encountered countless people who wanted immediate pull-out of Iraq. Their most common reason for this decision seems to be their absolute disappointment in how the administration presented the war case and how they handled Iraq post-Saddam. And it always followed that their description of the "surge", along with anything else the president said, was cast in this light.
The "Surge" - strong military action and an altered (read: actual) battle plan - has shown genuine progress. There's no doubt that this battle plan should have been initiated immediately upon the fall of Saddam. The American people sat and watched years and American lives go by with no (actual) progress whatsoever. So it seems natural that the administration now seems as though it's merely spinning its wheels.
But they're not. Yes, it's late. Yes, people believe they were lied to. Yes, they question the competence and integrity of the administration. But you cannot let this override your judgment of what's currently happening. It's important not to forget it, certainly, but you cannot let knee-jerk disappointment rule your sense. How many people here have actually read the Iraqi benchmarks and which ones they've met? When they were established they hadn't met ANY of them, and already they're making progress. I must sound like an administration spin-machine, but my boots, right now, are in Iraq. I see it first-hand every day.
Posted by: SPC Haight Aug 23, 2007 1:38:05 PM
I agree with Haight. I took my time and did not let my frustration with the Administration misguide me. The contemporary Iraq situation has been long in coming, but rather than conclude its hopeless, I actually began tracking deaths, goals met, and screened out the misinformation. Sure enough, there are prospects for hope in the morass. The military has accomplished the mission of the surge. They did what they were asked to do, at great sacrifice.
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