Ivanoe Quote: Sir Walter Scott

Graphic source: Brooklyn College Core Curriculum.

"My heart broke long ago. But it serves me still." Ivanhoe

Whose Your Mama?

GeneTree, a new genealogy, site uses DNA and social networks to trace ancestors.

The site is initiated by several companies owned by Salt Lake City-based Sorenson Companies. One of the companies operates a genetic database that contains DNA samples from 80,000 people in 170 countries.

GeneTree will expand that database as users send in cheek swabs to be analyzed. The site will use digital video compression technology to let users share pictures and video clips to create interactive digital family trees.

Once an individual submits their DNA it is compared against the database and the company will show people how they connect in he past and the present."

For a cost between $99 and $149, users can submit DNA samples to be matched against dozens of subgroups of DNA. It will then be used to map the global origin of a person's ancestors and digitally show the migration of relatives throughout the world to discover a family's history that may predate written records.

GeneTree will analyze only a piece of a the mitochondrial DNA, which traces a person's family history on his mother's side.

GeneTree does not reveal the names of people born in the past 100 years, to ensure that only the names of deceased people are available

All the information on the site about a person is visible only to that user, unless they opt to share information with family members.

This can potentially be an exciting adjunct to historical investigation and personal family history. The site is worth a look.

Bin Laden Whines: Upcoming Celebration of Law

Osama bin Laden whined about his al-Qaida followers in Iraq by stating they have "been lax" for failing to overcome their fanatical tribal loyalties. The enemy may seem to be the U.S. troops but you wouldn't know it from the insurgents.

The obvious disarray among Sunni Arab insurgents and bin Laden's group, both of which are under serious U.S. military pressure, and an uprising among Sunni tribesmen, are troubling Bin Laden.

The insurgents seem incapable of uniting under one banner.

Bin Laden employed the word "ta'assub" — "fanaticism" — to chastise insurgents.

Analysts are still studying this latest released tape but first reports seem to suggest that the tape is authentic.

Bin Laden warned the disunited "against hypocritical enemies who are infiltrating your ranks to create sedition among mujahedeen groups."

Anthony Cordesman, an analyst for Strategic and International Studies, stated bin Laden's message appeared to be note "that al-Qaida needs to be less arrogant and moderate its conduct."

Al-Qaida's attempts to impose Taliban-like Islamic laws in controlled areas as well as its killings of rival tribal figures alienated Sunni Arabs and led them to join a movement opposing al-Qaida.

U.S. troops, led by Major Lee Peters, a military spokesman, said a celebration is planned to include at least 200 Sunni sheiks and hundreds of other dignitaries to commemorate Sheik Abdul-Sattar Abu Risha, the founder of the anti-al-Qaida group who was assassinated by a bomb September 13.

The sheik's brother stated: "The people felt weak and afraid because of al-Qaida. Now there is a feeling of strength," Sheik Ahmed Abu Risha told The Associated Press. He continued: "This year I want to have a good parade to show that we support the law."

Friedman's Flat World & Education

Graphic source: Wikipedia, original artwork for 1st edition.

In Thomas Friedman's work, the convergence of advanced technologies, new ways of doing business, the removal of economic and political obstructions, and the rapid introduction of millions of young Chinese, Indian, and East European professionals into the world economy has dramatically leveled, or “flattened,” the global playing field.

Into this landscape, Americans with the knowledge, skills, and adaptability to compete in this newly flattened world can look forward to a brighter future, as long as they strive to be knowledge workers, who can then look forward to fulfilling work and a rising standard of living.

But those Americans without a command of higher-level skills, or those whose work can be easily digitized and outsourced, similar to many good-paying manufacturing jobs that went offshore in the 1970s and 1980s, will be in dire straits. Work is outsourced to India, China, Poland, and other countries where labor is cheaper and, perhaps most troubling for American educators, quality is often higher.

Are American children ready to compete and succeed in this new flat world?

Friedman tells his own daughters, “Girls, when I was growing up, my parents used to say to me, ‘Tom, finish your dinner—people in China and India are starving.’ My advice to you is: Girls, finish your homework—people in China and India are starving for your jobs.”

Most revealing are the results of the latest Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS): 44% of 8th graders in Singapore scored at the most advanced level in math, as did 38% in Taiwan; only 7% in the United States did.

The key is to focus on the basics, reading, writing, mathematics, coupled with rigorous national standards and tests. This will never happen but I can dream.

One of the most telling quotes is:

“The sense of entitlement, the sense that because we once dominated global commerce and geopolitics … we always will, the sense that delayed gratification is a punishment worse than a spanking, the sense that our kids have to be swaddled in cotton wool so that nothing bad or disappointing or stressful ever happens to them at school is, quite simply, a growing cancer on American society. And if we don’t start to reverse it, our kids are going to be in for a huge and socially disruptive shock.”

Although Friedman did not intend a work on education, it should give pause to educators. Schools are rule-bound, lack innovation, and simply falling behind the rest of the world.

Friedman's work should be a wake-up call for educators to sound the clarion call for reform.

Confucius on Learning

"Learning without thought is labour lost," Confucius.

Necessity of Academic Tenure

I have never been a big fan of academic tenure because I think it can be abused to encourage sloth but I do understand the necessity of the device.

Academic tenure is primarily intended to guarantee the right to academic freedom: it protects respected teachers and researchers when they dissent from prevailing opinion, openly disagree with authorities of any sort, or spend time on unfashionable topics.

When tenure was institutionalized in German universities there was a genuine need. The danger of governmental interference in thinking was too great to leave to chance. The system seems to have declined since then and it can be a disincentive to promote ground-breaking work.

Without the security of the position, an academic would usually favor tepid topics and safe ideas to pursue. Tenure encourages iconoclastic and original ideas by providing scholars the intellectual autonomy to investigate the problems and solutions about which they are most qualified, and to report their findings in an open, academic setting.

Updating Turkey

An update on the Turkish-Kurdish border situation still seems ominous. I have been following this story because the prospect of the war spilling over and creating greater regional instability. But Pelosi has argued that settling the genocidal issue in Ottoman history is correct. In addition, 70% of supplies enter Iraq for our troops through Turkish bases. The Pelosi crowd is endangering our supply lines to settle questions of Ottoman history.

Good News: Bad News

In the there is some good news, and there is some bad news department, most of the fake bombs smuggled in by plainclothes investigators got through security, but most of the loopholes have been closed by now.

Investigators successfully smuggled 75 percent of the fake bombs through checkpoints at Los Angeles International Airport, and 60 percent through Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. From late 2005 until last fall was the danger period but conditions have changed since then.

The TSA now conducts daily testing, which has led to improvements at airports, as a response to the bad news.

At San Francisco International Airport, where a private company conducts inspections, 20 percent of the contraband made it through security.

None of this really makes me feel any safer.

Let's Settle That Old Ottoman Genocide Thing

In what I feel is an ominous move and a situation that is likely to create more instability the Turkish Parliament approved an Iraq mission.

Ankara overwhelmingly approved, by a vote of 507-19, a possible cross-border offensive against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq. The Turkish government seems willing though to allow diplomatic pressure to be applied as well by the U.S.-backed Iraqi administration.

If the Turkish military enter Iraq, they will have a one-year time-table.

The rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, has provoked the incursion by Turkey because they have killed Turkish troops and Turkey maintains that the PKK has entered Turkish territory.

President Bush opposes Turkish plans to possibly send a massive number of troops into Iraq.

Bush said Turkey has stationed troops in Iraq "for quite a while."

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan opposed Bush's comments by stating: "What's important is the parliament's decision, not what people say."

Last week the U.S. Congress agreed to a resolution labeling the World War 1-era killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians by the Turks as genocide

Bush stated: "One thing Congress should not be doing is sorting out the historical record of the Ottoman Empire."

Text of: Did You Know? Shift Happens

Text of Did You Know? 2.0

Did you know?
In the next 8 seconds . . .
34 babies will be born.
[graphic indicating India – 5, China – 4, U.S. – 1]
What will the world be like . . .
. . . for them?
Name this country . . .
· Richest in the world
· Largest military
· Center of world business and finance
· Strongest education system
· Currency the world standard of value
· Highest standard of living
Great Britain. In 1900.
2006 college graduates
[graphic indicating U.S. – 1.3 million, India 3.1 million, China – 3.3. million]
How many 2006 college graduates in India speak English?
[graphic indicating 100%]
In 10 years it is predicted that the number on English speaking country in the world will be . . .
China.
Who would have predicted this 60 years ago? (then 60 is replaced with 40, then 20]
Did you know?
According to the U.S. Department of Labor
1 in 4 workers has been with their current employer less than one year.
1 in 2 workers has been with their current employer less than five years.
The U.S. Department of Labor estimates that today’s learners will have . . .
10 to 14 jobs . . .
by their 38th birthday
Many of today’s college majors didn’t exist 10 years ago
New media
Organic agriculture
e-business
Nanotechnology
Homeland security
What will they study 10 years from now?
Today’s 21-year-olds have:
Watched 20,000 hours of TV
Played 10,000 hours of video games
Talked 10,000 hours on the phone
And they’ve sent/received 250,000 emails or instant messages
More than 50% of U.S. 21-year-olds have created content on the web
More than 70% of U.S. 4-year-olds have used a computer
Years it took to reach a market audience of 50 million
[graphic indicating Radio – 38 years, TV – 13 years, Internet – 4 years]
Number of Internet devices in 1984: 1,000
1992 – 1,000,000
2006 – 600,000,000
Did you know?
We are living in exponential times
The first commercial text message was sent in December 1992
The number of text messages sent and received today . . .
exceeds the population of the planet
The Internet started being widely used by the general public in early 1995
1 out of 8 couples married in the U.S. in 2005 . . .
met online
Revenue for eBay in 2006: $1.7 billion
eBay was founded in 1996
There were more than 2.7 billion searches performed on Google . . .
. . . this month
To whom were those questions directed B.G.?
(Before Google)
MySpace Visitors
[graphic from 0 in 2003 to almost 60,000,000 in 2006]
More than 230,000 new users signed up for MySpace . . .
today
If MySpace were a country . . .
it would be the 8th largest in the world
YouTube visitors since September 2005
[graphic from 0 in 2005 to well over 100,000,000 today]
Did you know?
There are more than 540,000 words in the English language . . .
about five times as many as during Shakespeare’s time
[graphic with the words: widget, web-surfer, blog, dot-commer, e-learner, Internet]
More than 3,000 books were published . . .
. . . today
The amount of technical information is doubling every two years
By 2010, it’s predicted to double . . .
every 72 hours
Third generation fiber optics has recently been tested that push 10 trillion bits per second down a fiber
That is 1,900 CDs or 150 million simultaneous phone calls every second
It’s currently tripling every six months
The fiber is already there, they’re just improving the switches on the end . . .
which means the marginal cost of these improvements is effectively . . .
zero
Nearly 2 billion children live in developing countries
One in three never completes fifth grade
In 2005 the One Laptop per Child Project (OLPC) set out to provide laptops to these children
The first shipments should be in mid-2007
Kids who have never held a textbook will now hold the world
And be connected . . .
to you
Predictions are that by the time
children born in 2007 are 6 years old,
a supercomputer’s computation capabilities
will exceed
that of the human brain
And while predictions further out than 15 years are hard to do . . .
[graphic indicating 2049]
a $1,000 computer
will exceed the computing capabilities
of the human race
what does this all mean?
[graphic indicating: shift happens]
We are currently preparing students for jobs and technologies that don’t yet exist . . . in order to solve problems we don’t even know are problems yet.
“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” – Albert Einstein
Did you know . . .
There are students in China, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, and the USA who
[graphic switches from: remember, understand, apply, analyze, evaluate, create, communicate, collaborate]
on projects
every day
Ask Your Kids: Are you doing this in school?
Ask Your Principal: How are you helping my child become literate in the 21st century?
Ask Your School Board: Are you providing the resources and training necessary to prepare students to be successful in 21st century society?
Ask Your Elected Representatives: Now that you know all this, what changes should be made to current education legislation?
What’s your vision?
Did you know . . .
The original version of this presentation was created for a Colorado (USA) high school staff of 150 in August of 2006
to start a conversation about what our students need to be successful in the 21st century
By June 2007 it had started more than 5 million conversations around the world
And now that you know, we want you to join the conversation
Visit shifthappens.wikispaces.com
Did you know?
Developed by Karl Fisch
thefischbowl.blogspot.com
with assistance from Scott McLeod
dangerouslyirrelevant.org
Designed by XPLANE
xplane.com
shifthappens.wikispaces.com
[graphic with Creative Commons copyright notice]

http://thefischbowl.blogspot.com/2007/09/did-you-know-20-additional-quotes-and.html

Online Politics: Are They Really Adding Anything New?

I am not sure if Clinton and Obama are really influencing politics online as some pundits have stated.

For example, the Web sites of Senators Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) ran neck-and-neck in August in the battle among presidential candidates for page views, according to The Nielsen Co.

Yet, Clinton continues to dominate the race for most mentions in online blogs which may indicate that Obama does not have the same degree of significance, and he consistently has trailed Hilary in the polls.

According to the TechPresident.com blog, which is tracking the Web 2.0 efforts of the 2008 presidential candidates, Obama leads all of the candidates in Facebook and MySpace supporters.

Although online efforts have changed, adding blogs for example since the last time around, unless online efforts reflect the polls more closely or an additional factor of significance is associated with online efforts, I am only seeing the current efforts as an additional space for candidates.

Schopenhauer Quote

Graphic source: Raffiniert.

“All truth passes through three stages.
“First, it is ridiculed.
“Second, it is violently opposed.
“Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”
--Schopenhauer

Violent Deaths Down Again in Iraq

Graphic source: BBC.

Militarily, the surge works, as evidence, the number of violent deaths in Iraq fell again this week.

This is by no means any long-term solution but the problems are not only with the U.S. military.

An extra 30,000 U.S. personnel have been deployed in Iraq, mainly in and around the capital Baghdad, since the launch of the security drive, in February. The situation is dire though since some fairly well developed breathing room has been extended for the Iraqis, but without anything approaching a legitimate and democratic government.

Russia Should Step Up to the Plate

Graphic source: BBC.

This story should be classified in the `What were they thinking' department.

In the unstable world of today, Russia, China, and India should be stepping up to the plate and if Russia has rejected the American proposal to place anti-missile defenses in Russia that is a good thing.

The only way to greater stability in the Middle Eastern Asian corridor is if these three nations decide that is what they want and they are willing to pay for it. The U.S. has committed itself to two areas, Iraq and Afghanistan, and that is enough. Either the remainder of the world wants to take up its fair share or they have decided the cost is not worth it. In either case, the U.S. should shift towards diplomacy and allowing other nations to pick up the slack.

U.S. Sticking Its Nose Into Turkish History

All right, since I've been riding the Turkish pony for a bit now I will weigh in on the latest development as well. Turkey recalled their ambassador home from the U.S.

The Turks negatively reacted against the U.S. Congressional draft resolution which labels the 1915-17 mass Armenian killings as genocide. The non-binding vote, passed by 27 to 21 votes by members of the Congressional House Foreign Affairs Committee, is the first step towards holding a vote in the House of Representatives.

The Turks are correct which is troubling.

Congress should not be historians of other countries.

For the time being, the position of Turkey, that there were mass killings in 1915-17 is enough: but, since Turkey denies genocide, the Congress saw fit to interject itself.

That is a mistake.

U.S. President George W. Bush argued against the resolution, saying its passage would do "great harm" to relations with "a key ally in NATO and in the global war on terror." He is correct.

The resolution will only irritate the Turks, annoy everyone else, and Congress should not be the arbiter of history.

The resolution can only increase the distrust that Turks have for the U.S. and it will have no positive influence whatsoever.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has tilted Turkey towards Islamic conservatism and the resolution comes in the wake of reports that the Turkish parliament would discuss allowing military incursions into northern Iraq, possibly next week.

The vote comes after an escalation in attacks by the terrorist group, the Kurdish PKK which killed almost 30 soldiers and civilians in just over a week.

I see no good in the U.S. voting on the history of another people and I think diplomatic measures would be a far more effective tool. Historians are the ones who have established the Armenian genocide as a fact and the Turkish government has acknowledged this fact. In light of so much instability in the Middle East Turkey has moved towards neutrality about as far as any sovereign nation can. That is enough.

Whither Turkey: Redux

Now that I've recently been considering Turkey, a genuine problem is Turkey's Armenian dilemma. One fact should be kept in mind: Turkey did not always deny the mass killing of Armenians.

Despite outside pressure, or more likely because of it, Turks are more apt to reject proposals by foreigners that state the Turks committed heinous crimes in the past.

The question becomes more pressing as membership, or even a prospective membership in the European Union, is possible.

Not all the Turkish developments are promising, for example, the latest Turkish penal code and its preamble of 2005 make prosecution possible if a person will "insult Turkishness," including the idea that the Ottoman Armenians suffered genocide.

But this was not always the case. Turkish authorities acknowledged the genocide in the immediate aftermath of World War I.

The Ottoman government was in place but only because of the British.

The Ottoman sultan assured the British that those who committed atrocities would be punished and there were four show trials. For example, in 1919 a governor, Mehmed Kemal, was found guilty and hanged for the mass killing of Armenians.

But once the Ottomans were discredited and the British lost interest the trials ended from a lack of zeal in prosecuting war criminals.

The entire Turkish state does not bear personal responsibility since the atrocities against the Armenians were committed by a small number of people in the former Ottoman government.

The new republican government, once in place in October of 1923, was in fact an act of revolutionary defiance against Ottoman power.

Moreover, the Turkish nationalist movement followed an army officer, Mustafa Kemal, who had nothing to do with the Armenian's plight.

The present Turkish government, as long as it remains secular, confident of its place in the world, and wishing to foster closer ties to Europe will remain a beacon of hope in the Middle Eastern region.

Whither Turkey goes in light of recent developments is the critical question for order or greater regional instability.

Whither Turkey?

Graphic source: Burhan Ozbilici/AP.

As Turkey goes so goes the moderate Middle East. Turkey is ready to send troops into Iraq now that Ankara approves possible cross-border military operations to chase Kurds.

In an action that is not going to please the U.S. and will not help lead the Middle East towards stability, the Turkish government is poised to cross the border into Iraq now that Turkish military troops have been killed.

The decision came in a meeting between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and officials from his ruling party.

It is possible that the United States and Iraqi Kurds could take definitive action against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.

In the last 10 days, more than two dozen people — including soldiers and civilians — were killed in southeastern Turkey in attacks by PKK rebels. Labeled a terrorist group by the U.S. and the European Union, it has fought government forces since 1984 in clashes that have claimed tens of thousands of lives.

The decision of Turkey is key because if they act hastily this will jeopardize ties with Western allies.

Turkish soldiers targeted suspected escape routes used by fighters and tracked rebels in the Gabar, Cudi, Namaz and Kato mountains in operations that began after 13 soldiers were killed in an ambush Sunday. Two more soldiers died in explosions Monday.

Turks are naturally furious that PKK rebels, labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S., can carry out attacks on Turkish soil and then slip across the border to mountain hideouts in the predominantly Kurdish region of northern Iraq. Turkey can retaliate by closing the border with northern Iraq, hurting the economy of the landlocked region.

Internal Turkish debates center on the problematic relationship that Erdogan’s party has with its opponents. Erdogan has a situation with his own military, which has put the Islamic-rooted government on notice it will not tolerate any effort to undermine Turkey’s secular traditions.

The PKK is branded a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the European Union. Its war with Turkey has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

The (Little) Kids Are All Right

Networking is alive and well for 6-year-olds in 'online sandbox' Club Penguin, which from the price of it, is no child's play.

Thousands of children barely old enough to read are already online.

Virtual networking environments aimed at young kids have blossomed into serious businesses, earning millions for their grown-up creators.

In August, none other than The Walt Disney Co. paid $350 million for Canada-based Club Penguin, with a promise of $350 million more if it meets its traffic targets.

Club Penguin claims to have 10 million users, of whom 700,000 have managed to persuade their parents to pay subscriptions of a few dollars a month so they can use virtual money to buy clothes for their penguins and furniture to decorate their igloos.

There are safeguards, appropriate for young children, but these kids seem to have been born with a mouse in their hands.

Club Penguin's biggest rival, Webkinz (Graphic source: Leader Talk.org), turned a formerly family-owned Canadian company that makes stuffed animals, into a high-tech media firm.

Webkinz has not released sales figures but once word of their shipments of stuffed animals were released parents flooded the stores resulting in sold out signs all over.

All the News That's Fit to Blog

MSNBC Interactive News joined the Web 2.0 innovators with its acquisition of Seattle-based Newsvine Inc., a site that focuses on citizen journalism.

Citizens populate Newsvine which will remain independent of MSNBC, with contributor columns, user profiles, group commenting, and conversation tracking aimed at bringing multiple perspectives to news stories.

Essay by Andrew Roberts, "At Stake in the Iraq War: Survival of a Way of Life"

At stake in the Iraq war: survival of a way of life
By Andrew Roberts, Thu Jul 12, 4:00 AM ET

London - The English-speaking peoples of the world need to unite around their common heritage of values. And they need to sacrifice their naiveté about the true nature of war – and the losses that inevitably go with it. Otherwise, they will lose a titanic struggle with radical, totalitarian Islam.

The reason they are under such vicious attack – my home city of London came within minutes of losing up to 1,000 innocent people in an attempted nightclub bombing two weeks ago – is that they represent all that is most loathsome and terrifying for radical Islam.

Countries in which English is the primary language are culturally, politically, and militarily different from the rest of "the West." They have never fallen prey to fascism or communism, nor were they (except for the Channel Islands) invaded.

They stand for modernity, religious and sexual toleration, capitalism, diversity, women's rights, representative institutions – in a word, the future. This world cannot coexist with strict, public implementation of Islamic sharia law, let alone an all-powerful caliphate.

Those who still view this struggle as a mere police action against uncoordinated criminal elements, rather than as an existential war for the survival of their way of life, are blinding themselves to reality.

Sending signs of surrender
But recent news suggests the blindness is growing. Antiwar sentiment in America is swelling. As key Republicans desert the president, senators are pushing amendments to force the withdrawal of US troops. All this before US Gen. David Petraeus reports on the surge.

Are the English-speaking peoples really about to quit before Islamic totalitarianism has been defeated in Iraq? Are they seriously contemplating handing the terrorists the biggest victory since the Marines' withdrawal from Beirut? It was that surrender in 1984 that emboldened Osama bin Laden to believe that his organization could defeat a superpower. Surrender in Iraq would prove him right.

As a Briton, I cannot help thinking that if the Americans of 1776 had been so quick to quit a long, drawn-out, difficult ideological struggle, America might still be ruled by my country today.

The new British prime minister, Gordon Brown, has dropped the phrases "war on terror" and "Muslim" or "Islamic" terrorism from the government's discussion of what Britons are fighting. Car bombs are going off – we just need to find non-threatening ways to describe them.

In Iraq and Afghanistan, meanwhile, English-speaking forces ignore such pusillanimity and get on with the vital job of fighting those who would turn the Middle East into a maelstrom of jihadist anarchy and terror.

We know that Al Qaeda cannot be appeased, because if they could, the French would have appeased them by now. Al Qaeda is utterly remorseless, even setting bombs (detected by authorities in time) on the Madrid-to-Seville railway line in April 2004, after Spain decided to withdraw its troops from Iraq.

Fortunately, however, the English have been here before. Thrice. Their history provides a number of apposite lessons about how to defeat this latest fascist threat.

Since 1900, the English-speaking peoples have been subjected to four great assaults: first from Prussian militarism, then by Axis aggression, then from Soviet communism. The present assault from totalitarian Islamic terrorism is simply our generation's equivalent of our forefathers' successful struggles against the three earlier fascist threats. But in this fourth and latest contest, victory is not yet in sight.

In researching my book, "A History of the English-Speaking Peoples Since 1900" – a coda to Winston Churchill's classic – I visited the papers of 200 individuals in 30 archives on three continents. While there, I could not help concluding that this struggle against Islamofascism is the fourth world war. And I was repeatedly struck by how often common themes from the four struggles emerged.

Today's struggle needs to be fought in radically different ways from the last three, of course, but ideologically it is nearly identical. Look at the common factors.

Just as on 9/11, the English-speaking peoples have regularly been worsted in the opening stages of a conflict, often through surprise attack. As Paul Wolfowitz put it at a commencement in June 2001: "Surprise happens so often that it's surprising that we're surprised by it."

Examples include: The 1898 sinking of the USS Maine, the 1899 Boer invasion of Cape Colony, German Emperor Kaiser Wilhelm II's right hook through neutral Belgium in 1914, the Nazi-Soviet Pact of 1939, North Korea's invasion of its southern neighbor, Gamal Abdel Nasser's nationalization of the Suez Canal in 1956, North Vietnam's decision to begin armed revolution against South Vietnam in 1959, Argentina's 1982 invasion of the Falklands, and Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

Almost all were sudden, unexpected, not predicted by the intelligence services, and they left the English-speaking peoples at a disadvantage in the opening stage of the coming conflict.

The next common factor was how badly the English-speaking peoples were faring even up to three or four years into the first three great assaults on their primacy. The most dangerous moment of World War I – at least after Paris had been saved by the Battle of the Marne in 1914 – came as late as March 1918, during Germany's massive spring offensive.

In World War II, Germany's Adolf Hitler seemed to be winning the war both in Russia and the Middle East until September 1942. And had it not been for the Battle of Midway the same year, the Japanese might well have rolled up the entire Pacific theater. Just three years into the cold war – 1948 – Mao Zedong had won control of China, Hungary's Communist opponent József Cardinal Mindszenty had been arrested, and the USSR's blockade of Berlin was in place.

Simply because a victorious exit strategy is not immediately evident in Iraq or Afghanistan today does not invalidate the purpose or value of winning either conflict, as so many defeatists and left-liberal commentators argue so vociferously.

Importance of English camaraderie
The comradeship of the English-speaking peoples during the first three assaults was inspirational. On Aug. 1, 1914 – three days before Britain declared war on Germany, the New Zealand parliament voted unanimously to raise an expeditionary force to join the fight half way around the world, even though Germany posed no conceivable strategic threat to her.

It was a myth that Britain stood alone in 1940. After the successful evacuation of Allied forces at Dunkirk, France, the only two fully armed infantry divisions standing between London and a German land invasion were two Canadian divisions. Although the United States was under no direct threat from the Nazis, she far-sightedly chose to pursue the seemingly counterintuitive policy of "Germany First," even though she had actually been attacked in Hawaii by Japan.

The massive American contribution to victory in World War II has sometimes been ignored during the present bigoted frenzy of anti-Americanism spearheaded by the BBC and liberal newspapers in my country. Yet it is when the English-speaking peoples stand together that they are victorious, and only when they do not – as at Suez and in Vietnam – that they are not.

President Bush's foreign policy is denounced as neoconservative because of its reliance on preemption. Yet was George Canning a neocon when he ordered Admiral Horatio Nelson to destroy the Danish fleet at the Battle of Copenhagen to prevent it falling into Napoleon Bonaparte's hands in 1801? Was Winston Churchill a neocon for having bombarded the Dardanelles Outer Forts in November 1914, before Britain declared war on the Ottoman Empire?

The right of self-protection from such threats is, as the British historian Enoch Powell has pointed out, "inherent in us" since it existed "long before the United Nations was ever thought of."

By far the most justifiable war in recent history is the one in Afghanistan against the Taliban, the government that hosted and protected Al Qaeda when it killed nearly 3,000 innocent people – and attempted to kill many more – on 9/11.

Today the war there is principally being fought by Americans, Britons, Canadians, Australians, and special forces contingents from New Zealand. Germany has confined its troops to the quiet north. French troops guard the Khyber Pass. Much of the rest of NATO has refused to send significant forces to the region. Once again, therefore, the English-speaking peoples find themselves in the forefront of protecting civilization.

We are told that a future US administration led by President Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would be keen to reorient foreign policy toward France and Germany, which might indeed be in America's short-term, passing, commercial interests.

The US should never forget, however, that in those moments when she is looking for true friends, it is the English-speaking peoples who stand shoulder to shoulder with her, not her fair-weather friends.

Above all, however, the American people can take great solace from the fact that they have been in this situation – or something very closely analogous to it – three times before in the last century. And each time, because of their fortitude and their refusal to accept anything less than outright victory, they have prevailed.

• Andrew Roberts is the author of "A History of the English-Speaking Peoples Since 1900."