Analysis of Last Debate

McCain won the battle of the sound bites tonight; in fact, he may have won the sound bites of the campaign award. Most people, who are more interested in NASCAR or other frivolities, will just hear a clip or two. McCain got the right words in. He got to say what many people wanted to hear: "I am not George Bush and if you wanted to run against him you should have run four years ago." In addition, McCain scored on the economy by talking about Joe the Plumber. Ordinary people want a fighter; Joe wants someone who is a maverick. Obama is cerebral and he suffers from the "Al Gore Syndrome," professorial, stating nothing of substance, its just a flow of sweet words that he emits. McCain looks like he wants the job. If Obama is seen as so young and vigorous, why doesn't he act it? He just sits back and relishes the idea that Bush is so hated that he can waltz into the White House. I would think that if you were really willing to work hard for the American people, you might have a bit of passion about it. McCain pointed out how often Obama simple voted "Present." The American people deserve a harder worker than that and they need someone who can make a decision.

Am I the only one who notices that Obama likes to call McCain, "John," as if they are old buddies but it is as if he has no public respect for McCain. Many commentators seem to buy right into the erratic McCain portrayal but he is very respectful, even if he attacks Obama's record and campaign. He did not refer to Obama once by his first name.

Also, when asked what he would cut, Obama had no specifics to answer. When asked how he opposed his party; he had nothing. The independent voters in this election year are concerned that Obama is promising everything, he has nothing to cut, and he will tax and spend. They are correct. He can not deliver. Obama was not willing to state he would balance a budget. You heard it folks, he is criticizing Bush and his inflated budget but Obama is not promising the one thing that will help the economy the most: balance the budget. Stop Washington spending; he will not.

But perhaps the most revealing area of the debate related to our security needs, now. When asked when we can expect to be free from dependency of foreign oil, he stated, "ten years." It will never happen. If Obama can at best, be only President for two terms, he will be long gone in a decade. Energy efficiency will never happen with an Obama administration. The security policies he would favor as President will keep us dependent on foreign oil.

Voting Fraud Saga Continues

The full 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati upheld a lower court ruling that Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner must use other government records to check thousands of new voters for registration fraud. The full panel sided with U.S. District Judge George C. Smith in Columbus after hearing an appeal. Smith had ordered Brunner to develop a way to verify voter registration information and make it available to local election boards.

The federal appeals court ruled that the current system "is essentially useless — not unlike asking for a drink of water and being given access to a fire hose at full volume — and will do nothing to address the anti-fraud objective."

The order directs Brunner to verify new registrations by comparing that information with data from the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles or the Social Security Administration.

Pakistani-American Re-arrested

Pakistani intelligence agents re-arrested Juddi Kenan, a man with dual American-Pakistani citizenship. He is now in the custody of intelligence agencies.

Nothing to Worry About

Five Afghanistan scholars, from their 20s to 30, visiting the University of Washington have been reported missing so there is nothing to worry about. Two scholars from Afghanistan disappeared last year after attending the same program. The visitors were selected by the Afghan eQuality Alliance, a Global Development Alliance sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through a cooperative agreement with Washington State University, Roseth said. The FBI has said that it's not concerned about a security threat and is handing the case over to immigration.

So seven young Afghans, "scholars" at 20-30 years old, sponsored by Afghan agencies, are running around unattended in the U.S. and there is nothing to worry about. The FBI didn't invite Louis Freeh to come back and run things did they?

U.S. Citizen Waltzing Through Pakistan Released

A man believed to be a US citizen who was arrested near Pakistan's restive tribal area near the Afghan border has been released. There are no additional details other than what was stated yesterday about his background. This story does not sound right but there are no additional data points about it so far.

Ryan Crocker, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Thoughts on the Current Situation in Iraq

Thanks to the Long War Journal there is a fascinating exchange on the status of Iraq that I am repeating here. The following excerpt is from a transcript arising in an 10 October interview in Baghdad between Bill Murray, from the Long War Journal, and Ryan Crocker, US Ambassador to Iraq.

Murray: You arrived in Iraq as Ambassador in March of 2007; it’s now been about 18 months. If you were to rate Iraq right now compared to March 2007 or perhaps October 2006, rating that period perhaps as a 1, as a time of fear and loathing, versus where we are here today two years later, on a scale of 1 to 10, where do you think we are here in October 2008?

Crocker: If it’s a relative comparison, it’s well beyond 10. This is a transformed country since the time I’ve arrived. I will always remember my first visit to a Baghdad neighborhood as Ambassador. It was to Dora and the surge brigade had just moved in to the area. I’d been here in 2003 and lived here in the late 1970s, and walking through the streets of Dora a year and a half ago, it reminded me of Beirut in the 1980s, it was a war zone.

People were afraid to go out in the streets, to the big Dora market, which had only a dozen shops open, out of maybe 400. The residents were afraid to cross the bridge to go to the hospital because they thought the national police at the checkpoint would kill them because they were Sunnis. It was deeply depressing.

Dora is now utterly transformed. Not only are all 400 shops opened, the market has expanded well beyond that and during the commemoration of the birth of the last Shia Imam, tens of thousands of Iraqi Shia walked through Dora on their way to Karbala and were given food and drink by the Sunni residents. Contrast that to a time when if any Shia had tried to walk into Dora they wouldn’t have walked out, period. It’s that kind of transformation that is, to me, utterly striking.

That said, the threats are still there. Al Qaeda is diminished and in retreat, but not defeated. The Iranians clearly are trying to follow a Hezbollah model here as in Lebanon. The big Jaish al Mahdi militia model didn’t work for them. That is transforming into a non-militant organization but they are still working with Special Groups that are trained, equipped and directed by the Qods Force out of Tehran and the training is done by Lebanese Hezbollah.

So the Sunni extreme of al Qaeda, the Shia extreme of Hezbollah-like groups directed by the Qods Force represent real threats to this country and we and the Iraqis are going to have to be absolutely diligent in not letting up and tracking them down and eliminating them.

You have the challenge of services. A year ago, everybody was talking about security. Nobody worries much about security anymore in most of the country so now they’re all complaining about services. Where is the power, where is the water, where is the job opportunities and the government is going to have to step up to that? They are making progress but there is obviously a very long way to go.

And then there is the question of political evolution. There are lots of strains and pressures in this evolving system and how that evolution takes place is going to determine the future of the country. But there has been enormous progress -- coming back from Dora, putting my head on my desk, wishing I was back in Pakistan, from that moment I never would have hoped that Iraq would have come as far as it has in these 18 months, but there is still a long way to go, so we’re going to have to stay with this.

Source: Cf. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/10/an_interview_with_am.php

McKiernan Optimistic on Afghanistan

The top Coalition commander in Afghanistan, General David D. McKiernan, who leads more than 65,000 troops from about 40 foreign countries, including 33,000 Americans, stated that there had been “too many” reports in the media recently asserting that the foreign forces and their Afghan allies were losing the war.

He said:

I absolutely reject that idea, I don’t believe it,” the general said, adding: “It is true that there are many places in this country that don’t have an adequate level of security. We don’t have progress as even and as fast as any of us would like. But we are not losing in Afghanistan.

McKiernan stated that progress is being made and the Coalition is winning in Afghanistan.

This was a tussle about this in the Biden vs. Palin debate.

Biden stated:

The fact is that our commanding general in Afghanistan said today that a surge – the surge principles used in Iraq will not – well, let me say this again now – our commanding general in Afghanistan said the surge principle in Iraq will not work in Afghanistan, not Joe Biden, our commanding general in Afghanistan. He said we need more troops. We need government-building. We need to spend more money on the infrastructure in Afghanistan.

Biden seemed to downplay what McKiernan's actual assessment has been.

McKiernan had already clarified what he said in the Washington Post:

The word I don't use for Afghanistan is 'surge,' saying that what is required is a "sustained commitment" to a counterinsurgency effort that could last many years and would ultimately require a political, not military, solution.

McKiernan added in the Post that Afghanistan would need an infusion of American troops "as quickly as possible," i.e., a surge.

Afghanistan Expensive for Germany Too

Germany's army, the Bundeswehr, has cost Germans $3.27 billion U.S. through the end of 2007 for "deployment related additional expenditures" to the federal budget. The budget calls for a further spending for the ISAF mission in 2008. Actual expenditures for this year, however, will be considerably higher because the budget only includes expenditures through the end of the current deployment mandate, which ends on Oct. 13. Despite the cost, Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, is expected to extend the mandate by an additional 14 months. So far, Germany's military spending in Afghanistan has been almost four times greater than what it has contributed in civilian development aid.

Florida Man Visiting Extremists in Pakistan

A 20-year-old American man, identified on his passport as Juddi Kenan, and a resident of Florida, was arrested today in the Pakistani border region. Officers were investigating what an American was doing in the border area, believed to be a possible hiding place for Osama bin Laden and others. Kenan did not have permission to be in the region as is required by Pakistani law so he was arrested in the Mohmand agency. Kenan was wearing traditional Pakistani clothes; he related that he was a student at a community college and was in the tribal region to visit a friend. Kenan carried a laptop and a travelling bag. If he is not an AQAM operative, then he might be a CIA plant I would guess. No one is on a joyride to a lawless tribal region.

Obama - ACORN Connection

Graphic source: Social Policy Barack Hussein Obama pictured with ACORN in 2004

While Hussein Obama's involvement in a 1995 lawsuit on behalf of ACORN is usually reported, Obama's own website, as well as most major media, fail to reveal the full extent of his relationship with the organization or have subsequently scrubbed the evidence away. However, the advantage of the Net is that nothing disappears forever. The hidden web is full of information included in proprietary scholarly databases where these very same "missing" articles can be easily uncovered. Obama's campaign website states:

Fact: Barack was never an ACORN trainer and never worked for ACORN in any other capacity.

In a 2004 article--"Case Study: Chicago-The Barack Obama Campaign, by Toni Foulkes, a Chicago ACORN Leader, was published in the journal Social Policy. The journal recently pulled this particular article from their website, while leaving links to all other articles up.

The journal states:

Obama took the case, known as ACORN vs. Edgar (the name of the Republican governor at the time) and we won. Obama then went on to run a voter registration project with Project VOTE in 1992 that made it possible for Carol Moseley Braun to win the Senate that year. Project VOTE delivered 50,000 newly registered voters in that campaign (ACORN delivered about 5,000 of them).

Since then, we have invited Obama to our leadership training sessions to run the session on power every year, and, as a result, many of our newly developing leaders got to know him before he ever ran for office. Thus it was natural for many of us to be active volunteers in his first campaign for STate Senate and then his failed bid for U.S. Congress in 1996. By the time he ran for U.S. Senate, we were old friends.

Foulkes proclaims Obama's ACORN leadership training, but also clarifies Obama's post-law school organizing of "Project VOTE" in 1992 which was undertaken in direct partnership with ACORN. This is a tie between Project VOTE and ACORN with Obama's cooperation as ACORN has been accused of voter registration fraud. In addition, in March 2008, the Los Angeles Times also verified Obama's involvement with ACORN:

At the time, Talbot worked at the social action group ACORN and initially considered Obama a competitor. But she became so impressed with his work that she invited him to help train her staff. (LA Times, March 2, 2008)

Obama was an ACORN trainer.

Hussein is knee deep in ACORN nuts.

Nuts! to ACORN States Former Ohio Secretary of State

Ken Blackwell, the Ohio former Secretary of State, is calling for further investigation into voter fraud by ACORN as a challenge to democracy. The Obama campaign is reluctant to agree since they are so heavily involved with the organization.

Ohio Toss-Up

Ohio is more of a toss-up than many have stated: CNN's new Ohio poll of polls shows Hussein leading McCain by three points, 49 to 46%. 5% of the state’s voters were unsure about their presidential pick; previously, on 9 October, Obama led McCain by four points, in the 21 September poll, Barack led McCain by a single point. That's a horse race.

Current Developments in Afpak Illustrated

Graphic source: Department of Public Information

Information released to the public confirms the general sense of increasing urgency but coupled with significant inroads against AQAM in the Afpac region.

Obama Favors Delaying a Settlement in Iraq

The Washington Times quoted Iraqi Ambassador to the United States Samir Sumaidaie about a June 16 telephone conversation between Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari and Obama. Obama urged Iraq to delay the (memorandum of understanding) between Iraqi and the United States until the new administration was in place. Sumaidaie was present apparently and reported his recollection to the newspaper. It is reasonable that Obama wants to be a player and his interests are before the country's during the heat of a close political campaign.

Farewell to Van Evera

Stephen Van Evera, Professor of Political Science at MIT, would have us believe that the U.S. is in a similar situation as in the Concert of Europe, c. 1815. After the era of Napoleon and the French Revolution, the Concert was adopted by the old great powers of Europe of meeting from time to time in an International Conference, or Congress, in order to plan a solution by mutual agreement (hence "concert"). Austrian Chancellor Prince Klemens Wenzel von Metternich was the primary architect of the Concert and its most famous participant. The Concert of Europe became a de facto government of the world. The British balance of power was in abeyance and there followed an era of stability where Europe engaged in no major conflict for 43 years which is no mean accomplishment.

But the historical analogy does not fit. The Congress' first primary objectives were to:

contain France after decades of war;

achieve a balance of power between Europe's great powers;

uphold the territorial arrangements made at the Congress of Vienna in 1814-1815 and in doing so prevent the rise of another Napoleon-esque figure which would result in another continent wide war.

None of the objectives fit the requirements of effective U.S. foreign policy. There is no nation-state, such as France that needs containing; there is nothing advantageous for U.S. interests to simply maintain parity with other leading nations; and, no territory will contain a Napoleon-like figure to any one territory.

A Napoleon or any monster like him today is much more lethal today given the phenomenon of Islamofascism. Second, the U.S. has prospered during a period of American hegemony which is only more difficult today given the difficulties of the U.S. economy, ongoing international threats, and Islamofascism. Boundaries are not barriers today when you consider the role of the media in the information war and the porous nature of territories as in the case of places like Pakistan.

Van Evera equates the danger of a WMD and Napoleon as a threat-from-below. But as many nations are already engaged in actively defending themselves especially since the threats have often moved beyond threats to actual bombings and killings. Yet, the existing bulwarks such as NATO have proved less than successful in thwarting attacks. Van Evera seems to simply state the obvious. Nations need to cooperate. We already know that. The trick is to get them to move in harmony since they are not.

It is unilateral U.S. action that Van Evera reserves for especial disdain. But what is the alternative? America was under attack following 9/11 and if anything the U.S. dragged its feet, or failed to heed the warnings from Bin Laden experts such as Michael Scheuer during the Clinton administration. In large part the Bush Doctrine arouse from being attacked directly and during war no nation can wait for an international Concert before acting.

Van Evera's idealistic faith in diplomacy is laughable. Here is one such precious gem: "the United States should speak in respectful tones to other governments" (p. 19, Leffler). Maybe if the U.S. said "pretty please" to Hugo Chavez he wouldn't be such a bad guy after all. There are significant portions of the world, the lands where our enemies live, that openly applauded the attacks on 9/11. We can't wait for friends or enemies to take decisive action when our national security is on the line.

Van Evera simply recommends diplomacy to stop WMD. Every sane nation desires this but he never explains how the failed diplomacies of the past will now work. He just knows that Bush didn't excercise enough of it. Even our staunchest allies fail to deliver. For example, in July of this year, Japan backed out of an earlier commitment to dispatch its Self-Defence Forces (SDF) to Afghanistan now that the security situation has declined. The self-limitation of allies does not hinder AQAM (al-Qaeda and Allied Movements).

Another unexplained notion is that we have to have ideas to combat al Qaeda. This will convince them? Hardly. No war of ideas will convince AQ that we are right.

As things may get worse Van Evera has the "selective engagement" of Robert Art. This is all well and good but there is no way to distinguish Art from Bush since George would consider himself as targeting the right people and he has selectively chosen to attack the worse threats.

Nations selectively attack their biggest foes. Van Evera approves of Bismarck between 1871-1890 because he "bolstered peace" (p. 24). What Van Evera does not mention is that Bismarck had defeated each of his enemies-–Denmark, Austria, and France-–in isolation. After 1871 Bismarck was committed to preserving the peace of Europe only because he had already provoked and/or defeated his threats, selectively.

Since the U.S. suffered only 1.7% of war deaths in World War I, and only 3.6% of the deaths in World War II, this is evidence for Van Evera that the U.S. paid a relatively small price while forging great alliances that can work again. The only thing it seems to prove is that the U.S. assisted others in their life and death struggle that if successful, our common enemies would have come for us, and, of course Japan had hit the U.S. mainland.

Van Evera gets the historial parallels wrong so it is not surprising that his arguments for the present conflicts do not fit.

Cf. Leffler, Melvyn P., and Jeffrey W. Legro, To Lead the World: American Strategy After the Bush Doctrine.

Ayers, Buddy Chavez, Viva La Revolucion!

In November 2006 at the World Education Forum with dictator Hugo Chavez at his side, William Ayers, Obama associate and Weather Underground bomber stated his support for "the political educational reforms under way here in Venezuela under the leadership of President Chavez. We share the belief that education is the motor-force of revolution. . . . I look forward to seeing how . . . all of you continue to overcome the failures of capitalist education as you seek to create something truly new and deeply humane." Ayers added: "Teaching invites transformations, it urges revolutions large and small. La educacion es revolucion."

Whose Your Daddy? No One

A DNA test has confirmed what scientists thought: a mother shark had a virgin birth. The pup has no father. A pup carried by a female blacktip shark contains no male genetic material. This is something female sharks of many species can do on occasion since virgin births have been proven in some bony fish, amphibians, reptiles, and birds. The study appeared in the Journal of Fish Biology. The research does not indicate how frequently automictic parthenogenesis occurs in the wild.

Osama for President

Graphic source: Albany Times Union newspaper

If the chad fits wear it seems to be the slogan in Rensselaer County, New York state where absentee ballots went out with a typographical error. Ballots were printed with Barack Obama’s last name spelled as “Osama." Officials will re-send corrected ballots on request.

Indiana Voter Fraud by Obama's ACORN

In Indiana as well, there is evidence of voter fraud. More than 2,000 voter registration forms filed in northern Indiana's Lake County by ACORN have turned out to be bogus. In Lake County, home to the long-depressed steel town of Gary, the bipartisan Elections Board has stopped processing a stack of about 5,000 applications delivered just before the October 6 registration deadline after the first 2,100 turned out to be phony. "All the signatures looked exactly the same," Ruthann Hoagland, a Republican on the board. "Everything on the card filled out looks exactly the same." The attempted voter fraud this time around is more widespread and earlier than ever before.

Judge Orders Verification Required by Law in Ohio

U.S. District Judge George C. Smith in Columbus ruled that Ohio Democrat Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner must perform verification required by the Help America Vote Act. That includes matching new registrants' information against information in databases maintained by the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles or the Social Security Administration. Perhaps a Judge is seeing through the fraud that is taking place, at least in Ohio.