Graphic source: BBC
I don't know if the French are strong enough but they are about to make a serious move into the Gulf.
I've maintained here that both Russia, India, and probably China should step up to the plate but little France I haven't really considered.
Nonetheless, President Nicolas Sarkozy has not only done France's traditional policy of selling arms to Gulf states but he has done one better by signing a deal with Abu Dhabi for a permanent French naval base.
Will France become more of a target if it is interjected into the complex politics of the Gulf? Probably.
President Sarkozy appears willing to accept that this exposes France to the risks involved in such a sensitive area. There was the recent confrontation between Iranian speedboats and US naval ships recently. In addition, there is a dispute between Abu Dhabi and Iran over three small islands in the Strait of Hormuz.
Even the timing is interesting, coming as it does with a major visit to the region by President Bush, during which he has criticized Iran.
France is already playing an active role in trying to increase sanctions on Iran over its refusal to accept Security Council demands for a halt to uranium enrichment.
I think its a good move and is another indication that the U.S. can stand down as much as possible. I say let the French and others take up some slack and catch some of the flack that the U.S. ordinarily takes.
France is also constructing two nuclear power reactors for Abu Dhabi.
All this interest in nuclear power could indicate a capacity for nuclear weapons at some stage.
France has already sold Mirage jet fighters and AMX-30 tanks to the Emirate and has had a defence agreement with it (mainly dealing with the support of arms contracts) since 1995.
The British never fared well in the Lower Gulf and this allowed the French to make their move which they took full advantage of.
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