The Obama administration in September estimated that 8,000 to 12,000 workers could lose their jobs temporarily as a result of the moratorium; some independent estimates have been much higher.
The slowdown also has long-term implications for U.S. oil production. The Energy Information Administration, the research arm of the Department of Energy, last month predicted that domestic offshore oil production will fall 13% this year from 2010 due to the moratorium and the slow return to drilling; a year ago, the agency predicted offshore production would rise 6% in 2011. The difference: a loss of about 220,000 barrels of oil a day.
The Middle East will gain as a result of the moratorium. Some companies are shifting investments out of the Gulf. BP PLC recently said it would move a brand-new rig that was meant to work in the Gulf, Pride International Inc.'s Deep Ocean Ascension, to Libya. Marathon Oil Corp. has tried to cancel a contract for a newly built Gulf rig owned by Noble Corp. Noble declined to comment, but last month it said it would "vigorously defend its rights under the drilling contract."
Smaller oil companies, however, are less able to wait out the slowdown. ATP Oil & Gas, one of the smallest deep-water operators in the Gulf, has seen its share price fall 27% since the Deepwater Horizon exploded, a sign investors are concerned about lost revenue from its delayed wells. ATP's chairman, Paul Bulmahn, has said the company is now looking for projects in other countries. In a letter to President Barack Obama last month, Mr. Bulmahn pleaded for a drilling permit.
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