Good Enough for My Grandfather

Philadelphia could spend $47M over 20 years for water billing improvements. The latest of a two decades long effort to replace Philadelphia's aging water billing system could reach nearly $47 million.

Philadelphia Controller Alan Butkovitz released a 29-page report that detailed the costs since 1987 of replacing the city's 30-year-old proprietary Cobol mainframe billing system that still relies on punch cards.

Yes, punch cards, you read that correctly.

Costs have already exceeded $35 million and could reach $46.7 million, the controller's report stated.

Last January, an attempt began to replace the old water billing system with commercial off-the-shelf software for water billing called Basis2 from Prophecy International Pty. of Adelaide, Australia. Most of the previous plan to use Oracle Corp. applications was scrapped.

The Oracle applications cost $18.9 million, twice more than it initially expected to, without getting a working system.

Now, the Prophecy software and related costs will total $6.7 million, bringing the Prophecy and Oracle costs to $25.6 million.

The controller's total cost of $46.7 million includes years of work prior to 2002 when the Oracle work started. There was project creep between 1987 and 2002 which enlarged the initial costs.

I find this appallingly expensive, wasteful, and inefficient but typical of how money was wasted in dead-end projects. The non-innovative East attitude seems to be, if it was good enough for my grandfather, it is good enough for me.

INDEX Prizes Awarded to $100 Laptop, Electric Car

The AP reported that an electric sports car, a prosthetic foot for land mine victims, and a potentially lifesaving device known as the "Tongue Sucker" won in an international award honoring innovative designs.

The INDEX prize also awarded the $100 laptop designed for Third World children.

The Danish award began in 2005 "to celebrate design that not only looks good but also improves lives of people all over the world," according to Kigge Hviid, manager of the award foundation.

"Great design is a way to tell people that you value them," said Yves Behar, a Swiss designer who was part of the team behind the "XO" portable computer.

The laptop is now estimated to now cost $175 which is still inexpensive.

Canadian Sebastien Dubois' prosthetic foot was designed for land mine victims.

The Tesla Roadster electric sports car is made by California-based Tesla Motors.

The Prize awards are available at the INDEX site.

China In the Right Direction

China's recent announcement that it will begin a four-month campaign on tainted food, drugs and exports is a step in the right direction. Unless China begins to play according to international rules and by international standards, it will lose all the good will it earned by offering cheaper products. Consumers have begun to question the "Made in China" label.

Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi announced the "war" to focus on the troublesome products that have questioned China's commitment to quality.

The world's largest toymaker, Mattel, often thought of as an American company, recalled more than 18 million Chinese-made toys recently.

Chinese standards have been questioned in numerous products such as toothpaste, animal-food ingredients, tires, eels and seafood, and deadly chemicals in cough medicine.

Not long ago I commented on the execution of Zheng Xiaoyu, who was the former head of the national food and drug safety watchdog, and was executed in July for taking bribes.

Where Are the MRAPs?

The U.S. military needs more MRAP (Mine Resistant Ambush Protector) Vehicles since February 2005 and are only now beginning to receive a small number. I would like to document where the hold up is for these life-savers. Is it Congress, the companies themselves, or plain old bureacracy? Now that the military has given Iraq some breathing room, despite Maliki, our troops deserve the best.

Iraq Intelligence Estimate

Released yesterday, "Prospects for Iraq's Stability," is not filled with light and joy. Iraq is in generally poor condition although it is a bit better in certain areas.

There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January 2007. The steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now, and overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks. Coalition forces, working with Iraqi forces, tribal elements, and some Sunni insurgents, have reduced al-Qa’ida in Iraq’s (AQI) capabilities, restricted its freedom of movement, and denied it grassroots support in some areas. However, the level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq’s sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively. There have been modest improvements in economic output, budget execution, and government finances but fundamental structural problems continue to prevent sustained progress in economic growth and living conditions.

The conclusion is to stay the course:

We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent AQI from establishing a safehaven would erode security gains achieved thus far.

On this report, an interesting comment was made:

I . . . want to mention a common mentality I've noticed in Americans. They're angry at Bush, the administration, etc. and believe they're incompetent, liars and crooks. Without touching that subject, let me say that whatever you believe they may have done, you must not let it cloud your judgments of what's happening NOW. However sincerely angry you may be at their past actions (and inactions) you should be cautious in how much you let it effect your assessment of what they are doing now. During April I went home on leave and encountered countless people who wanted immediate pull-out of Iraq. Their most common reason for this decision seems to be their absolute disappointment in how the administration presented the war case and how they handled Iraq post-Saddam. And it always followed that their description of the "surge", along with anything else the president said, was cast in this light.

The "Surge" - strong military action and an altered (read: actual) battle plan - has shown genuine progress. There's no doubt that this battle plan should have been initiated immediately upon the fall of Saddam. The American people sat and watched years and American lives go by with no (actual) progress whatsoever. So it seems natural that the administration now seems as though it's merely spinning its wheels.

But they're not. Yes, it's late. Yes, people believe they were lied to. Yes, they question the competence and integrity of the administration. But you cannot let this override your judgment of what's currently happening. It's important not to forget it, certainly, but you cannot let knee-jerk disappointment rule your sense. How many people here have actually read the Iraqi benchmarks and which ones they've met? When they were established they hadn't met ANY of them, and already they're making progress. I must sound like an administration spin-machine, but my boots, right now, are in Iraq. I see it first-hand every day

.

Posted by: SPC Haight Aug 23, 2007 1:38:05 PM

I agree with Haight. I took my time and did not let my frustration with the Administration misguide me. The contemporary Iraq situation has been long in coming, but rather than conclude its hopeless, I actually began tracking deaths, goals met, and screened out the misinformation. Sure enough, there are prospects for hope in the morass. The military has accomplished the mission of the surge. They did what they were asked to do, at great sacrifice.

Alternative Ending to "The Invasion"

Graphic source: Wikipedia Public License.

If you plan to see The Invasion, then don't read the following because I'm going to spoil the ending for you. I caught this update from the classic B-movie original and I thought of a better way to end it.

Our heroine, in the update, looks fondly at her beloved while he is still sleeping as the morning news drones out grim statistics of people being killed while she forlornfully listens to the radio drinking her coffee. She is obviously troubled and we are left with the impression that maybe total peace is the path to follow after all.

The peace route, completely restraining people and repressing them though, was what the alien bug offered during the horror of the movie we just experienced.

On the other hand, a better ending is my version.

Our heroine, waking up from a dream filled with the alien special effects bug we saw throughout the film, awakens her. Now, we would be left to wonder, was it all a dream? Or, did what we just saw really happen? We would be left to wonder. And, this would lead to a possible sequel. What are those bugs in her head? Where did they come from? Will they emerge?

To sweeten the pot and add to the mystery, our protagonist's beloved, could be arising from slumber at the same time, but as he gets out of bed he limps. The limp could be from what we had experienced in the movie, our protagonist shot him during the film, or, he may just limp. We don't know.

In any case, this alternative ending would heighten the mystery and add to the tense moments we experienced in the film.

In case one still needs to see the classic original, here is a summary of Invasion of the Body Snatchers.

The theme of the cautionary, politicized film was open to varying interpretations, including paranoia toward the spread of a harmful ideology such as socialistic Communism, or the sweeping mass hysteria of McCarthyism in the 1950s and blacklisting of Hollywood, the spread of an unknown malignancy or virulent germ (read fear of annihilation by 'nuclear war'), or the numbing of our individuality and emotional psyches through conformity and group-think. Yet its main theme was the alien (read 'Communist') dehumanization and take-over of an entire community by large seed pods (found in basements, automobile trunks, a greenhouse, and on a pool table) that replicated and replaced human beings. And it told of the heroic struggle of one helpless but determined man of conscience, a small-town doctor (McCarthy), to vainly combat and quell the deadly, indestructible threat.

Tim Dirks

Tenet, Long Before Bush, Unprepared

The former head of the Central Intelligence Agency, George J. Tenet, failed to prepare the U.S. for the terrorist threat.

To Tenet’s shame he failed to prepare this country, the President--Clinton--for the terrorist threat. This fact, long before Bush, was clear from the 9/11 Commission report.

The recently released C.I.A. report merely, but importantly, confirms how not surprising Bush was ill informed regarding the terrorist threat upon becoming president. Clinton vacillates according to my reading of the 9/11 testimony. Therefore, it is not surprising that Bush inherited a vague policy against largely unknown actors.

According to the internal report, Tenet recognized the danger posed by Al Qaeda long before 11 September 2001, but he failed to adequately prepare the C.I.A. to meet the threat.

The document was completed in June 2005 but was kept classified until now.

Still, the report is old news and reminds me of the 9/11 Commission findings. That body concluded that “a failure of imagination” had made intelligence agencies unable to fully discern the growing peril of Al Qaeda, and that communication lapses within the C.I.A. and the Federal Bureau of Investigation and between those agencies had hobbled efforts to “connect the dots” of intelligence data and effectively pursue Al Qaeda terrorists, even after some of them had entered the United States.

The inspector general’s report stated that “it reaches the same overall conclusions on most of the important issues” as the Commission.

Clinton will not take the fall for this, as Bush has been pilloried over the issue, but Tenet was once in charge of all federal intelligence agencies and the report noted that he said as far back as 1998 that “we are at war” with Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden.

However, Tenet failed to create “a documented, comprehensive plan to guide the counterterrorism effort at the intelligence community level.”

Clinton failed to grasp the urgency of the threat in 1998 since Tenet failed to follow up his understanding that terrorism was a critical threat. Not surprising, Bush never got this type of word as he entered the presidency.

Bush will continue to take the heat for the failings of others but he was not president in 1998 when the threat by America's leading intelligence authority grasped the critical nature of Osama's efforts.

Only a Summary of the report has been released in the de-classification.

G.ho.st Sorta' Spooky

Graphic source: G.ho.st.

G.ho.st, which stands for Global Hosted Operating SysTem, has not arrived. Ghost Inc.'s Ghost: bills itself as the "Everywhere OS" but having tried it I would not say it works seamlessly. The interface is a mish-mash of Windows and Mac, so this might turn off both adherents of their favorite OS.

I like the basic concept. The idea is that the Windows and Mac model of your operating system, including all your favorite applications and data, are sealed inside one physical computer, and this manner of working and storing files is obsolete. According to Ghost’s creator, Zvi Schreiber, this is their raison d' etre.

The point sounds good but Ghost is sluggish in execution. I found the interface cluttered, my keyboard strokes were not easily picked up by Ghost, and thus my first impression was not a seamless experience.

Ghost should be a Web-hosted image of your desktop or laptop: a virtual computer that can be accessed by any client device via a Web browser. Maybe.

The `Wow Factor' for the "The Everywhere OS" did not materialize.

You can't beat the price though: Ghost is free for users.

Schreiber says a revenue stream will arise from vendors who remit fees to the company when they sell products or services to Ghost users.

To be fair, it should be mentioned that Ghost is in an alpha, “open to the public” release at the Ghost site.

Ghost is built from OpenLaszlo, an open-source platform for the development and delivery of Web applications that have the appearance and functions of traditional desktop applications.

I'll look in from time to time but I was not thrilled by the first experience.

Ghost is my second review of the top ten cool tools. The first review and product of those chosen by Computerworld came off better than Ghost.

Twisted Mickey: Hamas Martyrs Micky Mouse as Children's TV Entertainment

Graphic source: MEMRI.

Transcript Source: The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI).

June 29, 2007 Clip No. 1497

Farfour, Hamas' Mickey Mouse Character, Is 'Martyred' in the Final Episode of the "Pioneers of Tomorrow" Children Show on Hamas TV.

Following are excerpts from the final episode of "The Pioneers of Tomorrow," a children's TV show featuring Farfour, a Mickey Mouse character in a tuxedo, which aired on Al-Aqsa TV on June 29, 2007:

Farfour's grandfather: I want to give you something in trust before I die, and I want you to safeguard it, Farfour.

Farfour: What is it this trust I am supposed to safeguard, grandpa?

[...]

Farfour's grandfather: This land, which was [occupied] in 1948, is the land I inherited from my fathers and forefathers. I want you to protect it. It is a beautiful land, all covered in flowers and olive and palm trees. I want you to take care of it, Farfour.

Farfour: What is this land called, grandpa?

Farfour's grandfather: The land is called Tel Al-Rabi'. But unfortunately, the Jews called it "Tel Aviv" after they occupied it.

[...]

I want you to safeguard this, Farfour. Keep this key with you. When the land is regained, use this key, Farfour.

Farfour: This key, grandpa?

Farfour's grandfather: That's right. And these are the documents proving that the land is ours, Farfour. I am entrusting you with this, Farfour. Make sure you don't give up the land, Farfour.

Farfour: Don't worry, grandpa.

Farfour's grandfather: Farfour, I am very tired. I feel that I am about to die. I feel very close to the land of Tel Al-Rabi'. I hope you will protect it.

Farfour: Yes. Grandpa... Grandpa...

Farfour's grandfather: Grandpa entrusted me with this great trust, but I don't know how to liberate this land from the filth of the criminal, plundering Jews, who killed my grandpa and everybody.

"Farfour is interrogated"

Farfour: What do you want from me? Why have you brought me here?

Israeli interrogator: Sit down, my dear Farfour.

Farfour: I don't want to.

Interrogator: Sit down, Farfour.

Farfour: Okay, I will sit down.

Tell me what you want.

Interrogator: We've heard your grandfather gave you the keys and the documents of the land.

Farfour: Who told you?

Interrogator: It's none of your business who told us, Farfour. What we need...

Farfour: Well, what do you want from me?

Interrogator: Farfour, we want you to give us the land documents.

Farfour: These are the land documents which my grandpa entrusted to me, so that I would safeguard them and use them to liberate Jerusalem. When the lands are liberated, we will go and live there. Give them to you? My grandpa didn't tell me to give them to you.

Interrogator: You'll get lots of money, and we'll take the documents, and that't it.

Farfour: No, we're not the kind of peole who sell their land to terrorists.

Interrogator: Farfour, give us the documents we want.

Farfour: I'm not giving you the documents.

Interrogator: Farfour!

Farfour: I won't give you the documents.

Interrogator: Give us the documents, Farfour. Will you or will you not give us the documents, Farfour?

Farfour: I won't give them to criminal despicable terrorists.

Interrogator: You're calling us despicable terrorists, Farfour?

"Farfour in prison"

Host, Saraa, a young girl: Yes, my dear children, we have lost our dearest friend, Farfour. Farfour was martyred while defending his land, the land of his fathers and his forefathers. He was martyred at the hand of the criminals, the murderers, the murderers of innocent children, who killed Iman Hijo, Muhammad Al-Dura, and many others.

Cf. MEMRI

Raw Data for Petraeus

Petraeus and the U.S. military came through to provide an opportunity for the surge to work. What didn't work is the fledging government of Maliki and Iraq. The surge provided breathing room and is an impressive effort against all odds. The surge put more troops in harm's way than ever before; yet, American losses are down. The U.S. military provided space for Iraq to settle political differences.

If Iraq is to make it, it is up to the Iraqis to make it work. The U.S. military did its part; it is high time for Iraq to do the same. Despite recent talks with opposition leaders I would not be optimistic about Maliki's chances of success.

Deaths due to IED’s are down for the third month in a row.

Combat deaths due to causes other than IED’s are at one of the lowest points in the last twelve months.

Last statement: January 15 through May 31, 3,184 Enemy KIA, 6 IED cells dismantled; 17,946 detained.

This is a summary of what we know by tracking deaths in Iraq by: Period, US deaths, Total deaths, and Average number of deaths in the month:

8-2007, 49, 53, 2.52;

7-2007, 79, 88, 2.84;

6-2007, 101, 108, 3.6;

5-2007, 126, 131, 4.23;

4-2007, 104, 117, 3.9;

3-2007, 81, 82, 2.65;

2-2007, 81, 85, 3.04;

1-2007, 83, 86, 2.77;

12-2006, 112, 115, 3.71;

11-2006, 70, 78, 2.6;

10-2006, 106, 110, 3.55;

9-2006, 72, 77, 2.5.

The raw data is hard to read in this format and in the table below but the message and numbers are clear. The U.S. is experiencing fewer deaths and casualties in Iraq.

Period US UK Other* Total Avg Days
8-2007 49 4 0 53 2.52 21
7-2007 79 8 1 88 2.84 31
6-2007 101 7 0 108 3.6 30
5-2007 126 3 2 131 4.23 31
4-2007 104 12 1 117 3.9 30
3-2007 81 1 0 82 2.65 31
2-2007 81 3 1 85 3.04 28
1-2007 83 3 0 86 2.77 31
12-2006 112 1 2 115 3.71 31
11-2006 70 6 2 78 2.6 30
10-2006 106 2 2 110 3.55 31
9-2006 72 3 2 77 2.57 30

Gunplay Kills the Net

Computerworld explained why my Net was so slow yesterday. I wondered why. Apparently gunplay that damaged a network cable near Cleveland was blamed for an Internet slowdown.

Internet service providers in the U.S. experienced a service slowdown yesterday after fiber-optic cables near Cleveland were apparently sabotaged by gunfire.

TeliaSonera AB lost the northern leg of its U.S. network. Technicians pulled up the affected cable, it appeared to have been shot, according to Anders Olausson, a TeliaSonera spokesman.

If just anyone can shoot out a cable and down the Net then our infrastructure is not really very secure now is it?

Iran's Abuse of Academic Freedom for Iranian-Americans

Graphic source: The Wilson Center.

The AP reported today that a detained Iranian-American academic accused of conspiring against the Iranian government was freed on bail. Haleh Esfandiari, director of the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, had been in a Tehran prison since early May.

Iranian authorities investigated Esfandiari and Kian Tajbakhsh, another detained Iranian-American, who was also accused of conspiring against the country's security.

Esfandiari was broadcast on Iranian televsion on a video which also featured Tajbakhsh, an urban planning consultant with the Soros Foundation's Open Society Institute. Some have found the broadcast to have been coerced.

Two other Iranian-Americans face security-related charges: Parnaz Azima, a journalist for U.S.-funded Radio Farda, and Ali Shakeri, a founding board member of the Center for Citizen Peacebuilding at the University of California, Irvine. Shakeri is in prison, while Azima is free but barred from leaving Iran.

No developments were announced in the case of the other three Iranian-Americans.

The Wilson Center is a nonpartisan institution established by Congress in 1968 and funded through private and public funds. Its Middle East program focuses on several areas, including "analysis of internal domestic and social developments in Iran; the aspiration of the younger generation for reform and expansion of individual liberties."

Biden's Support of MRAPVs

Senator Joe Biden's press conference in Charleston, S.C. from July 23. Two local companies displayed Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPVs). The Biden Amendment funding supplemental included funding for accelerated procurement and deployment of these vehicles. The vehicles are four to five times safer against IED attacks and account for 70% of our casualties in Iraq.

Previously, I've reviewed MRAPVs and how they are deployed effectively.

One of Ten Top Ten Cool Tools

Graphic source: Computerworld.

Computerworld reported on the top ten cool cutting-edge technologies. The Eleksen Group's wearable gadgetry is an idea whose time came some time back. One reason I detest laptops is that they are not handy enough, they are bulky, and they take so long to boot up.

The idea behind the Eleksen Group PLC Sideshow Wearable Display Module though makes it more handy, not bulky since you are actually wearing the display, and you don't really boot up.

The ElekTex is a fabric-based, pressure-sensitive control interface that can be integrated into jackets, bags and other textile products. The ElekTex fabric controls come with an LCD display to interact with Windows Vista’s Sideshow feature. The ElekTex exports information from a Vista laptop to a secondary display. Thereafter, mini-applications, or “gadgets,” written for Sideshow can then wirelessly deliver e-mail, alerts or other updates to the remote screen even if the laptop remains in its case and turned off. That is handy.

One reason I enjoy my HP Jornada is that it boots up quickly, is so much smaller, and as a mini-PC it is not bulky at all. The ElekTex combines these features in one.

Out of the Mouths of Babes?

Children the world over learn what they are taught.

Food for Thought

I caught one of these videos before and this new one is just as thoughtful.

Disappointing Dennett

Ordinarily, Daniel C. Dennett is worthwhile reading but in Breaking he has written a disappointing book.

The "Roots of Religion" section is truly weak and does not make reference to leading thinkers on the origins of religion. No one can ask another to write the book they would like, but even with Dennett's caveats and how he notes his limitations, he fails to grasp important work in the roots of religion.

Dennett has a section entitled "Should Science Study Religion?" F. Max Mueller thought so: in the 1860s he began calling for a "science of religion" (William E. Paden, Interpreting the Sacred: Ways of Viewing Religion, p. 67). Independent of confessional agendas, Mueller called for objective, scientific studies of religion just as inquiries into natural things such as geology were conducted.

How could someone discuss the origins of religion and yet have no reference to such leading lights as F. Max Mueller, Edward Burnett Tylor, or Andrew Lang? Dennett does not even mention the leading lights in the origins of religion, who worked deliberately in the nineteenth century as a result of Darwin's insights, and in contradiction to Dennett's assertion that his Darwinian approach to natural religion is something new.

Dennett implies that students of religion have worked in a vacuum and without reference to Darwin. This is not true.

He notes that there have been natural histories of religion but that these efforts have been marred by either deference or hostility to religion(pp. 31-32). Dennett's dismissal of natural historians is a gross overstatement.

By the 1880s Mueller knew that Darwinism was too powerful of a force to ignore. Religion, due to Darwin, was viewed as a natural organism. At the turn of the 20th century, the Oxford anthropologist R. R. Marett was to declare that "anthropology is the child of Darwin" (Eric Sharpe, Comparative Religion: A History, p. 48). Andrew Lang's study of folklore was motivated with the understanding that folklore preserved anthropological data and is therefore worthy of study. Tylor, since he was a Quaker, well neither ill-disposed towards religion, nor did he have a penchent for Christian orthodoxy.

Dennett blithefully dismisses truly important historians of religion who viewed religion worth of study as a natural, organic, phenomenon.

Dennett seems to equate ordinary religious practitioners with the most serious scholar of religion which is a serious gaffe.

Two reviewers made trenchent remarks:

The most striking gap in Breaking the Spell is its lack of humanistic commentary from anthropology, aesthetics, and confessional literature. (...) Breaking the Spell is an insidious book; not because it breaks taboos by asking uncomfortable questions of religion, nor because its author is an ardent atheist, but because it is written by a brilliant philosopher who betrays his academic standards by proceeding from emotive, ill-informed prejudice.

- John Cornwell, Sunday Times

Breaking the Spell , however, not only differs in tone from Dennett's earlier work in being amicable and almost meek, but is also largely bereft of critical analysis. (...) In the end, its 400-page analysis yields little more than platitudes.

- Jerry A. Coyne, Times Literary Supplement

Sobering NYC Intelligence on Radicalization

Radicalization in the West: The Homegrown Threat by Mitchell D. Silber and Arvin Bhatt, Senior Intelligence Analysts at the NYPD Intelligence Division, provides sobering reading.


The authors state: "There is no useful profile to assist law enforcement or intelligence to predict who will follow this trajectory of radicalization. Rather, the individuals who take this course begin as `unremarkable' from various walks of life."


A radical is not born with horns on their head but the authors conclude, based on foreign and U.S. examples that a process of radicalization takes place for the eventual jihadists. Although Europe has been hit, and homegrown U.S. radicals have largetly been thwarted, the danger remains. They state:

Despite the economic opportunities in the United States, the powerful gravitational pull of individuals’ religious roots and identity sometimes supersedes ghe assimilating nature of American society which includes pursuit of a professional career, financial stability and material comforts.

The implications for homegrown radicalization make the efforts of law enforcement extremely difficult.


They conclude:

The global jihadi-Salafi movement poses a significant challenge to law enforcement and intelligence since the radicalization phenomenon that drives it is spontaneous, indiscriminate, and its indicators are subtle. Identifying whether an individual is being radicalized is hard to detect, especially in the early stages.

How is law enforcement to determine when and if simply radical talk is just that, talk? But this stage is when an individual may be stopped before they actually commit any violence.

•The individuals are not on the law enforcement radar. Most have never been arrested or involved in any kind of legal trouble. Other than some commonalities in age and religion, individuals undergoing radicalization appear as `ordinary' citizens, who look, act, talk, and walk like everyone around them. In fact, in the United Kingdom, it is precisely those `ordinary' middle class university students who are sought after by local extremists because they are `clean skins'.

None of these types of people would attract any attention. They look like any other pod.


The authors continue:

•In the early stages of their radicalization, these individuals rarely travel, are not participating in any kind of militant activity, yet they are slowly building the mindset, intention, and commitment to conduct jihad.

As evidenced by all eleven case studies these groups, or clusters of extremists:


"Act autonomously, can radicalize quickly, and often are made up of individuals, who on the surface, appear to be well-integrated into society."


They may be spontaneous which makes detection difficult. Silber and Bhatt state that the jihadists:

Are not “name brand” terrorists or part of any known terrorist group. For the most part, they have little or no links to known militant groups or actors. Rather they are like-minded individuals who spend time together in clusters organized, originally, by previously established social network links.

They are not engaged in activities which would get them noticed because they "Are not crime syndicates and therefore, applying organized crime strategies will fail."


Finally, the authors conclude:

The challenge to intelligence and law enforcement agencies in the West in general, and the United States in particular, is how to identify, pre-empt and thus prevent homegrown terrorist attacks given the non-criminal element of its indicators, the high growth rate of the process that underpins it and the increasing numbers of its citizens that are exposed to it.

These are sobering words. Americans have to be vigilant but respectful of privacy and American liberties. This is a difficult path to follow when the threat is real, it is here, and it is covert.


As the Middle East has gone, so has Europe, as Europe has gone, so has New York City, as NYC goes, so goes the U.S. The threat is real; the threat is here.

Wave of the Future?

Jose Padilla, a U.S. citizen and former gang member, convicted. He was a star Al-Qaida recruit. Padilla sought to kill, and sought to obtain material support for terrorism. However, I see this as a more to come scenario with additional cells coming to light over time.

Egypt, Kuwait, and Asia to Profit In Iraq

Despite the title in this post I don't imagine many will object to Egypt, Kuwait, or some in Asia profiting from Iraq. Many would object and sloganeer phrases such as "No Blood for Oil" but as some countries profit from Iraq no one bats an eye.

Yesterday Iraq begain auctioning off $300 million as the minimum bid price for mobile licenses in that country. An Egyptian, Kuwaiti, or an Asian company are the leading bidders. The next highest bidders come from Turkey.

Apparently war is good for business.

The $300 million starting price is for three 15-year mobile licenses moderated by Communications Minister Mohammed Allawi.

These lucrative 15-year licenses replace three short-term contracts awarded soon after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

The leading bidders are Cairo-based Orascom Telecom Holdings, Kuwait's Mobile Telecommunications Co. MTC, and AsiaCell, said Siyamend Othman, head of the National Communications and Media Commission.